For drivers trying to break into NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup field, Saturday night's race at Bristol Motor Speedway can be daunting.
It won't take much to make or break a dream. And with Bristol one of the four races remaining before the field is set, pressure is mounting. Twelve drivers have won races this season, and 11 of those are in the top 30 in the standings and in position to snare a Chase berth. Chris Buescher is three points outside of the top 30 — looking to gain ground and also break into the field.
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That doesn't leave much room for the rest of the field battling to get into the 16-driver, 10-race championship showdown. Ryan Newman is 11th in the points standings, the first driver in the mix without a win. Rookie Chase Elliott sits one point behind him. Austin Dillon is another two points behind Elliott. Jamie McMurray is 14th in the standings, nine points behind Dillon and 12 behind Newman.
Things are tight in this group.
Then comes Kyle Larson, Trevor Bayne, Kasey Kahne and Ryan Blaney. These guys could be looking more for a win than anything else to climb into the Chase.
Friday morning at Bristol, Dillon spoke about where he was in the standings — and how he views the Chase from here. He is trying to make the Chase field for the first time. So is Bayne. Elliott and Blaney are rookies. For Dillon and Bayne, young drivers with Sprint Cup experience hoping to carry the sport into the future, the scenarios are distinctly different. Dillon must hold off the challengers; Bayne needs to surpass them.
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Dillon says he has been pleased and that he counts Pocono as the highlight of his year to date. With nine top-10 finishes, three of them top fives, he's come close to winning.
Some races, though, he'd like to have another shot at.
"I wish we could have some races back," he said. "I think everybody does, but we do have some circled that we wish we could have back because we lost some big points on because of just failures and what not."
Ryan Blaney in the VT machine this weekend! pic.twitter.com/rTAEWNSXhJ
— Travis Wells (@TravisWells7) August 19, 2016
Dillon failed to finish the first race at Pocono after an accident. He was tagged by Jeff Gordon early at Watkins Glen and went on to finish 31st. He was 33rd at Dover. But he has finished 13th or better in four of his past six races.
He admits he must be aggressive in these next four races. "Anytime you play defense and you start playing that game it seems to hurt you," he said Friday at Bristol.
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He tries to learn from experience after battling for his 2011 Truck and 2013 Xfinity titles.
"The best one to lean on is the Xfinity championship," he said. "We were kind of playing from behind there the last six races or so against Sam Hornish and we were able to really string together some really solid runs, top fives. Four to go, just got to look at it, finish in the top 10 and I think we are solid four races, four top 10s that would be a great goal. We have a little leeway right there, top 15, but I think top 10 would take us home."
Bayne is in a different situation. He has hovered around the 16th position in the points for weeks. At one point, that would have been a Chase berth.
But with Tony Stewart's win at Sonoma and Chris Buescher's at Pocono, that landscape shifted. Those drivers are both outside of the top 16 in the standings — Stewart after missing the season's first eight races but then getting a NASCAR waiver to allow him into the Chase. Buescher must crack the top 30. Dale Earnhardt Jr. was in the Chase berth mix before missing races with concussion-like symptoms. He has yet to return, and an update is expected next week. All of that impacted Bayne's position.
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Buescher's mission is simple — he must keep gaining points the next few weeks. He must be in the top 30 in the standings after Sept. 10's race at Richmond.
Bayne, though, faces a different scenario than Dillon. He most likely needs a win to vault into the Chase. He could get in on points, but to do so, he needs others to stumble.
That puts Bayne in an unusual position. He's walking the fine line of trying not to force something while also trying to be sure he doesn't cost himself some points. So he'll try to be both aggressive and cautious, as the situation requires.
He did that at Watkins Glen, racing to ninth. To get in the Chase, though, he needs a big gain. Bristol offers that shot.
"For us, I don't know that points racing alone is going to get us in," he said. "We basically have to beat two guys if you figure that Chris can get in the top 30, which is still going to be a challenge for him as well. They've run a full season and they're back three points from 30th, so there is the potential that doesn't happen, but we race as if he's already in. For myself and my team, we come to Bristol and say, 'You know what? We need to win this race.' "
Larson, meanwhile, lost a massive amount of points on the final lap at Watkins Glen. He was running fourth when he was bumped by AJ Allmendinger, resulting in Larson finishing 29th.
Larson is not counting on anything despite his more solid position in the standings. He is, however, hoping that history helps his cause.
"Bristol's probably my best racetrack … It would be nice to get a win, but if we don't get a win, we're going to have to be top five probably these next four races to have a shot at making it," Larson said.