The South Point sports book, The Linemakers on Sporting News’ home base, is opening wagering on several potential BCS National Championship Games, with a limit bet of $2,000.
The title game is set for Monday, Jan. 6 at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif.
Here’s what’s on the odds board at the South Point, compared to the power ratings differentials between the potential combatants (listed in parentheses), according to the most recent Don Best/Linemakers numbers.
Alabama -3.5 vs. Oregon (even)
Alabama -10 vs. Florida State (Bama - 4.5)
Alabama -8 vs. Stanford (Bama - 5.5)
Alabama -7.5 vs. Ohio State (Bama - 9)
Oregon -3 vs. Georgia (oregon - 6.5)
Georgia pick ‘em vs. Ohio State (UGA -2.5)
Stanford pick ‘em vs. Ohio State (stanford -3.5)
Texas A&M pick ‘em vs. Ohio State (even)
Oregon -3 vs. Ohio State (Oregon - 9)
As you can see, there are some significant differences between South Point’s opening point spreads and what our power ratings suggest the line should be. While power ratings are the basis for the lines, there are other factors that go into setting them, especially for games several months away.
“Our ratings are merely a tool that give us a starting point as to where the number should be, and that's based on only hard stats the computer figures out based on a pre-set formula with no human element added,” says The Linemakers' Micah Roberts. “For a high-profile game as big as the BCS Championship, the human element is required to do some tinkering based on what the public will play, on what the sharp money play, and then a little a bit of opinion.
“So although our rating says Alabama and Oregon are even right now, we have to look at the circumstances of our current rating,” Roberts adds. “Oregon has played a weak schedule so far, and if Alabama gets to the title game, their rating along the way figures to get stronger. And we also have to give greater consideration to the public element for this one because it's the most-bet college game of the year.
“Everyone will have an opinion, and everyone also knows the SEC has won seven straight BCS titles. The only way to try and theoretically attract equal action to the Oregon side is to give a chunkier number, and that number might have to be closer to 6.”
While it’s fun and informative to look at these numbers, they won’t attract too much betting interest, according to Roberts.
“These numbers currently posted will change as the season goes on, based on what teams do on their remaining schedule, as well as any respected money that comes in and shows their hand at what they're thinking the number should be. But for the most part, there won't be lots of action this early, and it's more of a gauge for the public and media to talk about."
The Golden Nugget last week posted Alabama as a 3-point favorite for a potential meeting with Oregon.
More college football from The Linemakers: Power ratings | This week's lines