Massey-Peabody has recommended San Diego as one of its Big Plays in each of the first two weeks of the NFL season, and the Chargers have covered both times. The Linemakers’ new partners are going back to the well once more, taking San Diego plus a field goal when they visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.
“I have a very different opinion than the market on the Chargers", says Rufus Peabody, one half of the Massey-Peabody tandem that uses a complex mathematical model to make predictions on football games.
San Diego has struggled in pass defense, Rufus notes, but the Titans’ passing offense isn’t scaring anybody.
The Chargers, in fact, should be close to a 2-point favorite in this spot, according to Rufus.
Meanwhile, the game that’s expected to be the most one-sided this week Rufus finds the most interesting.
The Seahawks are laying 19.5 points – 19.5 points – at home against the Jaguars.
If you’ve blindly gone against teams laying this many points in the NFL, you’ve done quite nicely.
Since 1978, of the 26 underdogs of 17 or more points, 19 have covered the spread (the Patriots went 0-5 in that situation from 2008-11).
The market has overreacted to both Jacksonville and Seattle, Rufus believes.
Also among the Massey-Peabody Week 3 selections is Baltimore, underdogs at home against Houston.
The M-P ratings do not account for injuries other than to QBs, so we’re not too concerned about Ray Rice missing the game.
The Ravens are 1-1 and struggled at home against the Browns last week, but they’re not as bad as many believe; and the Texans could easily be 0-2 right now.
M-P has bet against the Colts – and won – in each of the first two weeks, and Rufus himself is surprised to be on their side this week. But he’ll take the 10 points in Indy’s trip to San Francisco.
So that’s four plays and four dogs.
Dogs tend to be better bets early in the season, according to Rufus, who anticipates recommending more favorites as the season goes on.
The lines for this week’s picks are from the South Point sports book as of Friday morning. Massey-Peabody’s spreads are listed in brackets.
Big Plays (3-1 YTD)
• San Diego +3 at Tennessee [MP= -1.7]
Other Plays (6-5 YTD)
• Jacksonville +19.5 at Seattle [MP= +15.3]
• Baltimore +2.5 vs. Houston [MP= -0.8]
• Indianapolis +10 at San Francisco [MP= +7.4]