Massey-Peabody, our partners here at The Linemakers that use advanced statistical modeling to predict the outcome of sports events, leaned to the correct side in three of last week’s wild-card game (San Francisco-Green Bay pushed). None of those picks, however, qualified as official plays when the picks were posted. Hopefully you read the notes and made a wager on the Saints when the line moved to +3 (official play territory).
This week, The Quants – as we call the duo of Cade Massey and Rufus Peabody – have one Big Play, which Rufus calls a “a very Big Play.
“The public seems to have once again overreacted to a small sample, and forgotten that previous, more distant weeks do in fact still matter predictively,” says Rufus. "Teams don't magically morph into superteams when the playoffs begin. And the fact that San Francisco made the Super Bowl last year is irrelevant – just ask the Ravens.
“We're gonna ride the Carolina Panthers again this week. The Panthers are the better team overall, are coming off a bye week, and are at home.”
The Linemakers’ team is in disagreement with The Quants on this selection – hey, great minds don’t always think alike.
The Niners are 7-1-1 ATS on the road this season, and The Linemakers’ Micah Roberts says, “Great defenses and good running games travel well, and the 49ers have both. It‘s a model that has been effective throughout Jim Harbaugh's tenure as head coach. The 49ers have covered seven of their last 11 revenge game situations, and they know what it takes to win playoff games on the road.”
As of noon ET on Friday, the 49ers are 1-point favorites across Las Vegas, but the LVH SuperBook’s Jay Kornegay expects 49ers money to push the line back up to 2 or 2.5.
“I thought this thing would have a chance to go to 3 like we saw on the Packers game, and I still think we might see that,” Kornegay told The Linemakers on Sporting News this week. “Those who took Carolina plus 1 or 1.5 might have jumped the gun a little bit because they’ll probably get a better number closer to kickoff."
The Panthers qualify as a Big Play for Massey-Peabody even if they are laying up to 2 points.
The Linemakers are also on the UNDER, with two of the best defenses in the league facing off.
“We expect these Ds to dominate the game, just like they did November 10 at Candlestick Park, where the Panthers won, 10-9,” Micah adds. “The total has been stuck at 42 all week, and while it’s a sharp number, we think Sunday's game will stay UNDER, like eight of the Panthers' last nine games have gone.”
To see all of The Quants’ picks for the week, visit The Linemakers on Sporting News.