It's still unclear whether Tom Brady will be taking the field on Sept.10 for the season opener against the Steelers. The Deflategate saga continues with Brady and the NFL expected back in court on Monday. If no settlement is reached by then, the judge could rule by the end of the week, but regardless of the decision, it will likely be appealed. What that means for the start of the season is anyone's guess.
Losing one of the all-time great quarterbacks for the first four games of a season would obviously be devastating for any team. However, of the teams that would be best equipped to deal with such a loss, the Patriots would be considered among the ones that could perceivably best weather the storm. They appear to have confidence in Jimmy Garoppolo, despite him not having taken a single meaningful regular season snap as he enters his second season.
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How dramatic might the drop-off from Brady to Garoppolo be? How many games could be lost with Garoppolo that would have been won with Brady? We turned to "Madden NFL 16," which just came out, to simulate the first four games of the season with each quarterback. The rosters are up-to-date with Reggie Wayne, who signed with the Patriots on Monday, and without LeGarrette Blount, who is suspended for the opener for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy. The Steelers' roster also reflects running back Le'Veon Bell's suspension for the same reason.
With Tom Brady (3-1)
Week 1: The season opener is celebrated in grand fashion with a 34-3 win over the Steelers. Brady carved up the defense going 33 for 40 for 293 yards, with four touchdowns and no interceptions.
Week 2: The Patriots stumbled in a 35-16 loss to the division-rival Bills. Tyrod Taylor came in for an injured EJ Manuel and provided a spark to the Buffalo offense, throwing for 175 yards and two TDs and running for another 69 yards and a TD on just four carries. Brady went 28 for 41 for 289 yards, with a touchdown and an interception.
Week 3: The Patriots took care of business by beating the Jaguars 27-6. Brady was 28 for 35 for 297 yards and didn't throw a TD or interception.
Week 5: One of the most highly anticipated matchups of the young season comes following New England's bye week. The Patriots went into Dallas and came away with a 31-20 victory against the Cowboys. Brady's line: 21 for 33, 269 yards, two touchdowns, one interception.
Four-week stats for Brady: 105.7 QB rating, 1,148 yards, seven touchdowns, two interceptions.
With Jimmy Garoppolo (1-3)
Week 1: The outcome was the same for the NFL's Thursday night season kickoff game. The Patriots won 35-16 and Garoppolo played extremely well. He went 21 for 31 for 221 yards, with three touchdowns and no picks.
Week 2: With the Bills' fantastic defense, it's no surprise Garoppolo stumbled. The Bills won 34-14. The Patriots' offense struggled mightily, managing only 89 yards through the air and 36 on the ground. Their only scores came from two kicks being returned for touchdowns. Garoppolo's line was 11 for 23, 89 yards, one interception.
Week 3: Uh, oh, things have quickly gone downhill for the Pats. They lost at home to the Jaguars 14-10, after holding a 10-0 halftime lead. The 14-for-31, 216-yard passing performance by Garoppolo wasn't good enough, even though he threw for a touchdown and didn't commit a turnover. The offense managed just nine first downs.
Week 5: Playing a contender on the road with a backup QB is a recipe for disaster. The Patriots played this game tight, though, losing 23-20 to the Cowboys. Garoppolo went 20 for 38 for 244 yards, with two touchdowns and an interception.
Four-week stats for Garoppolo: 82.3 QB rating, 770 yards, six touchdowns, two interceptions.
Analysis
Garoppolo wasn't terrible. His 6:2 TD:INT ratio was almost the same as Brady's. The offense's efficiency took a dramatic hit with him at the helm, however.
Brady threw for 378 more yards, 94.5 more yards per game. The Patriots averaged 22 first downs in games played by Brady and only 12 in games with Garoppolo under center. Completion percentage was 73 percent for Brady vs. 53 percent for Garoppolo. All that put more pressure on the defense, which held up well, all things considered. The Patriots gave up only 28 yards more of offense per game. That kept them in the games with the Jaguars and Cowboys. The offense was unable to score a second-half touchdown in either game, though.
Bryan Wiedey posts sports gaming news and analysis daily at Pastapadre.com, has co-founded the new site HitThePass.com, is a regular participant in the Press Row Podcast, and can be reached on Twitter @Pastapadre.