Three Eastern Conference teams are in 1-0 holes versus lower-seeded competition with a chance to even things up in tonight’s NBA playoff action.
With bookmakers and bettors all over the bounce-back (or zig-zag) theory – which says the team that lost the previous game should give its best effort the next time out – two of the favorites opened at bigger numbers in their respective Game 2s. The betting market, evidently, is losing faith in the Indiana Pacers.
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers (-7.5, 187), 7 p.m., TNT
In a move against the bounce-back theory, the Pacers opened at a shorter price for Game 2 than the closing line for Saturday’s series opener (-8), although the number was bet up Tuesday morning to -7.5 at most Vegas shops. Additionally, the Pacers are now just a -185 favorite to win the series, an unheard of low number for a No. 1 seed after just one game. Indiana’s series price opened at -600.
The Pacers are on a wallet-thinning 5-22 run against the spread, and the Hawks have now beaten them outright – and convincingly – twice in a row at Bankers Life Fieldhouse (Atlanta can be found at +320 on the money line Tuesday night, if you’re of the belief they can make it three in a row).
Things are clearly amiss in Indiana, and questions abound regarding the team’s mindset. It's fair to call Game 2 a must-win – the Pacers have won in Atlanta just twice since December 2006.
The Linemakers’ lean: We’ll look for the Pacers, who were confused by Atlanta’s small lineup on Saturday, to make the necessary defensive adjustments and start to right the ship. The betting market hasn’t adjusted in this case to the bounce-back theory, so we’re seeing value with the home favorite down a game, and we’ll lay the points.
While Indiana games have been going OVER at quite a rate, Atlanta has stayed UNDER in five of its last seven, and the Pacers are 25-17 to the UNDER at home on the season. We’ll play UNDER 187 as well.
We’re also seeing solid value in the Pacers’ new series price of -185.
More leans from The Linemakers …
Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors (-4.5, 189.5), 7:35 p.m., NBA TV
The team with the better defense lost Game 1, as the Raptors rank 10th in the league in terms of points allowed per possession, and the Nets are 20th. Toronto shot just 39 percent from the field on Saturday and turned the ball over 17 times to Brooklyn’s eight – not exactly a winning recipe – yet still had a chance to pull the game out late. We’ll prescribe to the bounce-back theory here and lay the points, but if the spread creeps into the 5.5 range, we’ll lay off it.
Another strategy to consider: buy the spread down to -2 and lay -150 with Toronto – it’s cheaper than the money line and games rarely land on 1.
Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls (-5.5, 181.5), 9:35 p.m. ET, TNT
There’s value on the UNDER here, as the total has spiked to 181.5 from 177.5 in Game 1. Sunday’s game went OVER, but there were plenty of points scored late when it got out of hand and the Bulls started fouling. Chicago plays at the 29th slowest place in the league and will surely want to turn Tuesday night’s game into a plodding affair. UNDER 181.5 is our play.