A fascinating fight within the lightweight division will be taking place at UFC Vegas 49, as Islam Makhachev will be taking on Bobby Green. The fight on February 26 from inside the UFC’s APEX Center will be a catchweight bout and is set to take place just a few weeks after Green's previous fight.
Makhachev was supposed to face off against Beneil Dariush, but Dariush backed out on Feb. 16 due to an ankle injury.
Ranked fourth in the UFC's lightweight rankings, Makhachev made his pro debut in 2010. Joining the UFC in 2015, the 2016 Sambo World Championships gold medalist lost the first fight of his career against Adriano Martins. Since then, Makhachev is on a nine-fight win streak. During that stretch, he has won four fights via submission, one via knockout, and four via decision.
Green made his pro debut in 2008. A former King of the Cage junior welterweight and lightweight champion, Green joined the UFC in 2013. He is 10-7-1 with the promotion. Green is on a two-fight win streak, recently beating Nasrat Haqparast at UFC 271 on Feb. 12. Even though he recently competed, Green took the fight without any hesitation.
MORE: UFC Vegas 49: Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green fight date, time, price, odds & location
Sporting News is breaking down the fight and providing some insight into the betting of the matchup.
When is UFC Vegas 49: Makhachev vs. Green?
- Date: Saturday, Feb. 26
- Start time: 4 p.m. ET
- Main card: 7 p.m. ET
- Main event: 10:15 p.m. ET (approximately)
How to watch UFC Vegas 49: Makhachev vs. Green
- TV channels/live stream: ESPN+
The prelims and the main card for UFC Vegas 49 will be available on the ESPN+ streaming service.
UFC Vegas 49 odds for Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green
According to the FanDuel Sportsbook, Green is the +540 underdog in this fight. That means a $100 wager will result in a $540 profit. Makhachev is the massive -850 favorite, meaning you would have to wager $850 for a $100 profit.
In Canada, according to Sports Interaction, Makhachev is the -720 favorite, while Green is the +470 underdog.
Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green prop bets
- Makhachev via KO/TKO: +420
- Makhachev via submission: -115
- Makhachev via decision: +340
- Green via KO/TKO: +1100
- Green via submission: +2200
- Green via decision: +1300
Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green prediction
One of the most important factors of this fight is the potential battle on the ground.
Makhachev has a takedown average of 3.37 per 15 minutes-- Green is at 1.36. The Russian has a takedown accuracy of 66% (38% for Green) and has attempted 1.3 submissions (0.3 for Green). In his entire UFC career (18 fights), Green has landed 20 takedowns. In only 11 bouts with the UFC, Makhachev has landed 24.
If Makhachev takes it to the floor and starts bullying Green, it could be a hard night for the 35-year-old. Makhachev has even told reporters that he will talk trash to Green while on the floor, a reverse of what Green normally does to his opponents.
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Things get interesting if the fight doesn't stay on the ground. Green has landed 5.93 significant strikes per 15 minutes. Makhachev has landed 2.21. Makhachev has a slight edge in strike accuracy (58% compared to 51%). The volume of shots Green lands in his fights, however, is something to keep an eye on. In his last four fights, Green has landed 444. Makhachev has landed 121. In just the one fight against Nasrat Haqparast, Green landed 188. Green's 1,404 significant strikes is the most in UFC lightweight history.
Michael Bisping gave his thoughts on the fight on his YouTube Channel.
“Bobby can win this fight. On the feet, Bobby is way better, simple as that. Islam can strike, of course," Bisping said, via MMA Junkie. "He’s not a one-trick pony. He’s not just a wrestler, right? But he’s nowhere near as fast as Bobby Green. He’s nowhere near as slick. He hasn’t got the footwork, either, that Bobby has. Now, when it comes to wrestling and jiu-jitsu, I’ll give Islam the edge there. He’s better. He’s better in that regard, but you’ve got to get (Green) down.
“One thing we know about Bobby Green is the sprawl. He has a beautiful sprawl. He also has really, really good takedowns. I doubt he’s going to use these. In this fight, it wouldn’t be smart to take down Islam. That’s just going into his world, giving him what he wants. So Bobby needs to stay on the feet, try and put Islam on the back foot, but be careful that when he goes forward, Islam doesn’t shoot underneath. Obviously he’s going to get taken down. Look at what Islam did against Dan Hooker.”
Green has fast, capable hands, which may be a problem for Makhachev. The problem is keeping it on the feet. There is no doubt that Makhachev will force this to the floor, and he will be aggressive throughout the contest. Unlike previous opponents, Green may end up having the cardio to survive a brutal ground game.
Makhachev was preparing for another opponent, but the change shouldn’t affect his game plan. Green, a trash-talker, still has that warrior mindset after just a few weeks away from his last fight. We have seen some massive upsets in MMA before. The odds may make it seem like Makhachev has the ultimate edge, but there are stats out there that prove that Green has a legitimate chance at winning. Expect the unexpected and for Bobby Green’s recent run to continue.
