UFC Fight Night comes to us Saturday night from Ottawa with a couple of key fights in the welterweight division. In the main event Rory MacDonald faces Stephen Thompson. This is basically a pick'em fight at most books and looks like a tough call on paper.
MacDonald was within minutes of being welterweight champion last July only to be KO’ed by Robbie Lawler in the closing moments of a fight he was winning on the cards. MacDonald also lost a split decision to Lawler back in 2013 a loss that sparked an amazing run to the championship for Lawler.
His only other loss is to always top contender Carlos Condit back in 2010. MacDonald has a real good all around MMA game and should use his movement to his advantage in this fight against Thompson, who may prefer to mix it up on the inside.
Thompson, who has only one loss in 13 fights, made a big statement in February by knocking out former champion Johny Hendricks in the first round. Also a first round KO of veteran Jake Ellenberger in his fight before that signals just how dangerous he is and the line reflects it. We're looking for a real aggressive start from Thompson Saturday night as that seems to be a good recipe for him lately.
Thompson will have to be careful not to leave himself open as MacDonald certainly has the punching power to make him pay. MacDonald also has the home octagon advantage fighting in his home country of Canada, something that can’t be overlooked should this fight end up going to the cards.
Pick: It's a real tough call in what should be a real good fight but we have to lean towards MacDonald, who just has faced the better overall competition. Look for MacDonald to win the standup battle with good speed and movement and should the fight end up on the ground Rory has a big edge there also. Taking Rory Mac Donald to defeat Stephen Thompson in the main event Saturday night.
Also on the main card is Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone against Patrick Cote in a battle of welterweights. Cerrone, who has done his best work at lightweight, is a -170 favorite with Cote getting +140 as the underdog.
Cerrone was on a eight-fight win streak when he was finished in the first round in lightweight title fight with Rafael dos Anjos in December of 2015. Cerrone did come back in February with a nice first-round submission win over a tough customer in Alex Oliveira. Cote has won three in a row, his last a second-round KO over veteran Ben Saunders. On paper this looks like an easy spot for Cerrone but not so fast.
A key stat for handicapping this fight could be the fact that Cote is just a different fighter when fighting in his home country of Canada. Cote has won eight fights in a row in Canada and may be a little undervalued here. Cote also has seemed to really look comfortable at welterweight as he used to compete mostly at middleweight and even light heavyweight earlier in his career.
Pick: Remember, Cote once challenged the great Anderson Silva for the middleweight title. It’s a tall order but this could be a great spot for the veteran Cote to add to his great record in Canada. Take Patrick Cote to pull the upset over Donald Cerrone at the generous price of +140 maybe higher by fight time on the main card.