UFC Fight Night will take place Sunday, May 8, in Rotterdam, Netherlands. The main event is key heavyweight fight between third-ranked Alistair Overeem and fifth-ranked former champion Andrei Arlovski. Overeem is a -210 favorite to move closer to a title shot; Arlovski is getting +170 as the underdog.
Overeem (40-14, one no contest) has won three in a row and seems to be in great form coming into this fight. A knockout win over top contender and former champion Junior dos Santos in December 2015 leaves him probably just one win away from a title shot.
Overeem, 35, has always been one of the most explosive strikers in the heavyweight division, and now he seems to have finally improved his cardio. That deficiency cost him several fights earlier in his career. It was almost guaranteed that if an opponent could get past the second round, Overeem would tire and leave himself open to shots. That's no longer the case; a more cautious approach has led to positive results. Overeem now lets the fight come to him, which makes him more dangerous than ever.
Arlovski, who won the UFC heavyweight title in 2005, has made a nice run in his second stint with the UFC. Six wins in a row have put him a great spot, but a first-round KO stoppage loss to Stipe Miocic has slowed his momentum. This is probably Arlovski’s last chance to make a run at the title, but at 37 he still has a very good overall game.
This bout will likely turn into a striking match, in which case Overeem would seem to have the edge but not by as much as one might think. Arlovski has shown recently, except in the loss to Miocic, that he can trade with the best of them and still win.
I'm backing the favorite here. Overeem seems to have more ways to win. He can hold his own if the fight goes to the ground, but this bout should stay on the feet, where Overeem's speed might make the difference. Look for Overeem to win the standup game.
Pick: Take Overeem and lay the -210.
Also on the main card is a fight between heavyweights who could use a win: 12th-ranked Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva and Stefan “the Skyscraper” Struve. Silva is a -180 favorite, which on paper seems like a close contest with Struve getting +150 as the underdog.
Both fighters have lost three of their last four and Struve has probably looked worse than Silva, but a loss is a loss. Struve, easily the tallest fighter in the UFC, has star potential but can’t get that signature win to put himself in title contention. He's only 28 but he really needs a win to stay relevant in the division. Silva, 36, has faced the better fighters lately but sometimes has looked very sluggish. This is a tough one to call, but I’ll go with the younger fighter with the huge reach advantage.
Pick: Take Struve to pull off a small upset at +150.