UFC 307 Preview: Jose Aldo has more skills than Mario Bautista; will altitude be his undoing?

Val Dewar

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UFC 307 Preview: Jose Aldo has more skills than Mario Bautista; will altitude be his undoing? image

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Jose Aldo, the King of Rio.

Even at age 38 Jose Aldo is still adding new facets to his mixed martial arts game, as though the old skills he had were not enough already.

Aldo already was widely acclaimed to have the best takedown defense in MMA history as well as some of the best boxing, leg kicks, body shots, reads, hand speed, and all-around athleticism. All of that alone would make him no worse than a formidable opponent - even with his abilities deteriorating with age – for bantamweight contender Mario Bautista, who has developed into a great fighter himself.

Yet the toughest opponent for Aldo to overcome may not even be Bautista himself, but rather the elevation in Salt Lake City, Utah, just like last time. He competed there.

On that night 'The King of Rio' defended all sixteen takedowns from now-bantamweight champ Merab Dvalishvili. The former featherweight champion and all-time great still lost the fight to the wrestler though, by way of simple wall-and-stall tactics.

Aldo has never had a great gas tank; as far back as 2011 he was dropping fifth rounds on the scorecards of fights he won, like against Mark Hominick. It only lost him a fight, though, when he met the unbreakable cardio monster Max Holloway, who still had to lose two rounds and walk through the fire to sap the Brazilian's gas tank enough to finish him.

When Aldo moved down to bantamweight everyone feared what would happen. He already sometimes had bad cuts, and no weight cut gets anything but harder as one ages, but he made it. In fact, he not only made 135-lbs - which is absurd thing to do for the first time after sixteen years as a combat athlete – after some initial growing pains he began to excel.

Aldo went on a run, winning three straight fights against top ten bantamweights and reaching spitting distance of a title shot. The shot instead went to TJ Dillashaw, which is where we return to a fight against Merab, 4,300 feet above sea-level, and the GOAT's retirement from mixed martial arts.

After that loss he competed in boxing bouts on smaller scale shows in Brazil, honing and testing the skills he had grown a renewed enthusiasm for since joining the Brazilian Naval boxing team. He went 2-0-1, looked to have a renewed energy, and when the UFC came calling to fill out a lackluster card in Rio de Janiero, the King of that very city answered with enthusiasm.

In return from his first MMA retirement Jose Aldo showed out in his home city, comfortably out-classing skilled striker Jonathan Martinez. He is back once more, and ready to gift the world with fun fights in the best division in the sport, as long as they aren't at altitude where he will gas out again.

After all, Aldo before altitude had just won a five-round war against Rob Font and landed a career record for significant strikes in a three-rounder vs Munhoz. Aldo at altitude could not even explode to get off the fence or get close to throwing 100 total strikes without gassing out.

So who exactly at the UFC headquarters thought it made sense to put 'The King of Rio' in the one situation he cannot effectively display his skills? Do they hate baby goats over there, or is Mario Bautista just getting a sudden push that he has never gotten before?

Or are the matchmakers just stupid? I am just a humble fan of the kickpunch, but I genuinely do not see how I can pick Jose Aldo in this fight. I know that spending most of an article to hammer home one point may be bad form, but I would genuinely pick Aldo over Bautista in any other scenario, so the making of this fight at elevation changes the entire complexion of it. Mario is good but has not proven himself to be elite yet, and Jose has never lost to a fighter outside of the true elite. The worst opponent he has lost to in the UFC is Marlon Moraes, who was still elite at the time at all.

Jose Aldo makes great MMA strikers look like children and elite MMA wrestlers look foolish for trying a double leg, and then doubly so when they lose the single after he feeds it to them. Mario Bautista is one of the better grapplers in the division, but he has almost no hope of out-grappling Aldo, even at altitude.

What he can do is turn up the pace, something he already does consistently with a 5.69 significant strike per minute average. It is still likely Mario will drop the first round on the scorecards, but when the fight goes longer, he has tools that will trouble Aldo – ranged weapons like teeps, gas-stealing ones like body punches and knees, and the ability to mix it up and clinch or shoot.

Frazzling Aldo's reactions with a wide variety of attacks, tanking the return fire, and then overwhelming him with volume once he is tired is exactly what Max did to take down the GOAT back in 2017, I'm what is still essentially the definitive version of what Mario worked towards against Ricky Simon. Bautista is nowhere near the level of striker Holloway was, but my belief is that with the advantages of time and elevation, it will not matter.

Sure, he will not take and hold 'The King of Rio' down, but sapping his gas tank further with cage wrestling would be an excellent move, something Mario employed against Da'Mon Black's gear. Merab showed one blueprint for this very occasion.

I could be wrong. Maybe Jose Aldo got on EPO or has spent more than a month acclimating to altitude, but being active almost a mile up causes a different sort of tiredness, one that shuts down the body and cannot be fought so easily as at sea level.

Last time he paced himself due to the situation and so never got a chance to unload on Merab, and then got tired anyway. If he goes hell for leather trying to stop Bautista early, I fear it will only hasten the exhaustion, unless he manages a first-round knockout.

Mario Bautista is a pretty cool fighter, especially his grappling, so this is not the worst thing ever, but every MMA fan would at least prefer Aldo to be given a level playing field to try and win on.

Val Dewar

Val Dewar Photo

Val was initiated into Steelers Nation from the moment he was born — his first memory is a game vs. New England from when "Slash" was QB — and doing sports writing has always been a dream career for him. In 2022 he broke into the industry by writing about combat sports for Cageside Press, and now has the opportunity to continue that work with TSN as an MMA writer, as well as get his feet wet on the Steelers beat.