UFC 286 odds courtesy of Sports Interaction, Canada’s most trusted sportsbook.
At UFC 278, one kick ended a dynasty-like title run for Kamaru Usman. Leon Edwards defied the odds and had a comeback for the ages to tie their series 1-1. Who will lead the series and hold gold when they compete in a trilogy bout at UFC 286 on March 18?
UFC 286 will take place at the O2 Arena, a familiar setting for the Birmingham-born Edwards. It is Usman’s first time competing in London.
Also on the stacked card will be the entertaining Justin Gaethje, the rising Casey O'Neill, and Welsh favorite Jack Shore.
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The Sporting News, with the help of Sports Interaction, takes a closer look at the UFC 286 card.
Leon Edwards (c) vs. Kamaru Usman 3 for the UFC welterweight title
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Kamaru Usman is the -255 favorite, while Leon Edwards is the +190 underdog.
Looking back at their first fight in 2015, Usman landed 48 shots and suffocated Edwards with six takedowns. Edwards landed 26 shots. Usman won via unanimous decision in a three-round affair.
In the rematch at UFC 278, Usman landed five takedowns to Edwards' one, but Edwards' late kick to the neck took Usman down.
The trilogy fight should be interesting.
Usman averages 4.55 significant strikes per minute (down from UFC 278). He also has an accuracy mark of 53%. Edwards averages 2.59 significant strikes (also down from UFC 278) and has an accuracy mark of 50%. "The Nigerian Nightmare" has a 57% strike defense rate, while Edwards has a 53% mark.
Since the first Edwards fight, Usman has landed 43 takedowns.
What is Usman’s mindset like heading into the fight? With the way the second fight ended, will he be more gun-shy with his offense? If that is the case, Edwards can control the pacing of the bout against the older Usman. He cannot get too cocky, but knowing what a five-round championship affair feels like now may give him an extra push to halt Usman’s attempt to return on top.
Once again, Edwards can and should defy the odds.
MORE: Leon Edwards: Kamaru Usman will retire after loss at UFC 286
Sporting News prediction: Edwards via unanimous decision (round three)
Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev; Lightweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Rafael Fiziev is the -225 favorite, while Justin Gaethje is the +165 underdog.
It is the people’s main event, with violence expected.
Both are hard-hitting warriors, with Gaethje landing 7.46 significant strikes per minute (4.81 for Fiziev) and a strike accuracy mark of 60% (50% for Fiziev). Gaethje has reached triple-digit shots five times in the octagon, while Fiziev has only done so once. However, Fiziev's knockout power, with three of his last four wins coming via the power punch, is impressive.
Something to highlight is the significant strikes absorbed per minute. While Gaethje can give it, he can also take it, as he absorbs 7.85 shots. Fiziev absorbs 4.86 shots. Gaethje’s willingness to take damage has made him a fan favorite, but that can only go so far. Gaethje can also counter with the best of them, but Fiziev's combinations and finding spots in the clinch could be a problem.
The strikes should kick up a notch here, but the surging Fizzier should walk out the winner.
Sporting News prediction: Fiziev via TKO (round three)
Gunnar Nelson vs. Bryan Barberena; Welterweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Gunnar Nelson is the -390 favorite, while Bryan Barberena is the +275 underdog.
A multi-time Pan American Champion in Jiu-Jitsu, Nelson came off a two-year hiatus to beat Takashi Sato in 2022. Barberena was on a three-fight win streak before losing to Rafael dos Anjos and is a replacement opponent.
MORE: Gunnar Nelson breaks down Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler
Nelson lands 1.83 significant strikes per minute (5.92 for Barberena), and landed 44 to Sato's nine. He added three takedowns to that win and has a 1.86 average takedowns landed mark. Before losing to RDA, Barberena was on a run where he landed a combined 366 significant strikes in three fights.
Barberena gets taken down often but can land volume blows. Can the latter fact play any factor against Nelson, who has a bit of an edge on the floor? The upset is there, but expect Nelson, the training partner of Conor McGregor, to get the big win here.
Sporting News prediction: Nelson via unanimous decision
Jennifer Maia vs. Casey O'Neill; Flyweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Casey O'Neill is the -180 favorite, while Jennifer Maia is the +145 underdog.
The rising O'Neill has won four straight in the octagon, landing 229 significant strikes against the now-retired veteran in Roxanne Modafferri. The 25-year-old recovered from a torn ACL and is back in action, landing 8.65 significant strikes per minute. She also has a takedown average of 2.59 and an accuracy mark of 44%.
Maia is hungry for another title shot but is 2-3 in her last five bouts. She lands 3.98 significant strikes per minute and has a takedown average of 0.30.
Considered the future (ask Ariel Helwani), O'Neill has a solid grappling game. She also lands volume blows. The veteran in Maia can take advantage of any mistakes, but O'Neill has become polished enough where that may not come to fruition. In a now-open division, it is O’Neill’s time to shine.
Sporting News prediction: O’Neill via TKO (round two)
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Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze; Middleweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Marvin Vettori is the -280 favorite, while Roman Dolidze is the +205 underdog.
Vettori is 2-2 in his last four fights and has faced killers in Kevin Holland, Israel Adesanya, Paulo Costa, and Robert Whittaker. Dolidze is just starting to reach the surface, winning four in a row against Phil Hawes and Jack Hermansson.
Vettori averages 4.20 significant strikes per minute (2.62 for Dolidze) and has a strike accuracy mark of 44% (47& for Dolidze). On the floor, Vettori lands 1.89 takedowns per 15 minutes (2.12 for Folidze). He attempts 0.6 submissions per 15 minutes and has taken down opponents 16 times in four fights.
It is a step up in competition for Dilidze, while Vettori is looking to return to title contention. To win, Vettori must act as the aggressor but stay focused. Given the battles he has been through, a motivated Vettori has a slight edge over the growing Dolidze.
Sporting News prediction: Vettori via unanimous decision
Jack Shore vs. Makwan Amirkhani; Featherweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Jack Shore is the -530 favorite, while Makwan Amirkhani is the +355 underdog.
A former Cage Warriors champion, Shore is 5-1 in the UFC, losing his last bout in July against Ricky Simon. Amirkhani is 1-4 in his previous five, and is coming off a loss to Jonathan Pearce.
Shore landed 3.96 significant strikes per minute, while Amirkhani lands 1.35 significant strikes. Amirkhani averages 4.15 takedowns per 15 minutes, landing 13 in his last four fights. However, Shore has a takedown defense mark of 80%.
The smaller fighter, Shore has the skills and the durability over Amirkhani. His grappling skills and unique offense should be enough to take down Amirkhani, who has been known to tire out early.
Sporting News prediction: Shore via submission (round three)
MORE: Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 3 purse, salaries for UFC 286
Chris Duncan vs. Omar Morales; Lightweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Omar Morales is the -120 favorite, while Chris Duncan's not far behind at -110.
Both Dana White's Contender Series alums have had interesting starts to their career. Duncan got knocked out by Viacheslav Borschhev but recovered with a knockout win against Charlie Campbell. Morales won three in a row but has gone 1-3 in his last four. Morales has kickboxing on his side, while Duncan has power and aggression.
As close as this is, Duncan goes straight into the fire, while Morales can be methodical with his approach. That may end up helping the latter earn the win.
Sporting News prediction: Morales via unanimous decision
Sam Patterson vs. Yanal Ashmoz; Lightweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Sam Patterson is the -310 favorite, while Yanal Ashmoz is the +230 underdog.
A Dana White's Contender Series alum, Patterson recovered well against Vinicius Cenci in his last fight, earning the submission win. He can survive any offense in his path and has a gas tank to go the extra mile if needed. Ashmoz impressed in the PFL, as the Israeli beat Dennis Hughes Jr. in his debut. He has won all but one of his six fights via some form of a finish.
Ashmoz can drag you down to the floor and aims for the neck. Patterson is crafty and can attempt to block Ashmoz's skills. It all depends on who wants it more. Given the odds are not necessarily wide enough to give him the benefit of the doubt, Ashmoz can get the win here.
Sporting News prediction: Ashmoz via TKO (round two)
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Muhammad Mokaev vs. Jafel Filho; Flyweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Muhammad Mokaev is the -855 favorite, while Jafel Filho is the +530 underdog.
The odds are not fans of Filho. Mokaev burst on the scene with a submission win over Cody Durden that took less than a minute. He then landed 18 total takedowns against Charles Johnson and Malcolm Gordon, giving him an average takedown landed per 15-minute mark of 8.88. The Dagestani is patient, which is scary at 22.
Filho has 14 wins, eight via submission. "Pastor" landed two takedowns in his last fight en route to a KO win. The main question is whether Filho can force Mokaev to make a mistake, the first man to do so. However, it doesn't appear that anyone can stop Mokaev. The upset is on the table, but is it worth the risk?
Sporting News prediction: Mokaev via unanimous decision
Lerone Murphy vs. Gabriel Santos; Featherweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Lerone Murphy is the -240 favorite, while Gabriel Santos is the +130 favorite.
Santos is the LFA featherweight champion, replacing an injured Nathanial Wood. At 10-0, he has three wins via KO and four via submission. His last fight was in January. Murphy is unbeaten in 12 bouts and is 3-0-1 in the UFC. It is his first fight since October 2021.
Murphy lands 2.58 significant strikes per minute and has a 62% defense mark. His overall ability, despite the layoff, is impressive enough to keep him as the true favorite in this fight.
Sporting News prediction: Murphy via unanimous decision
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Dusko Todorovic; Middleweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Christian Leroy Duncan is the -240 favorite, while Dusko Todorovic is the +175 underdog.
A pro since 2015, Todorovic is 3-3 in the UFC. The former Contender Series alum is coming off a TKO win against Jordan Wright and has landed 5.64 significant strikes per minute. Duncan, making his UFC debut, is 7-0, with five wins via knockout.
Duncan has more value when it comes to staking, while Todorovic’s ground game can be questionable. The proposed winner depends on how you look at each of their skills. For the value offered, Duncan’s power can result in a violent win.
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Sporting News prediction: Duncan via TKO (round one)
Malcolm Gordon vs. Jake Hadley; Flyweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Jake Hadley is the -380 favorite, while Malcolm Gordon is the +265 underdog.
It is looking to be a showcase bout for Dana White's Contender Series alum Hadley. "White Kong" has landed 124 significant strikes in three contests, averaging 4.02 significant strikes landed per minute. He will have a one-inch reach disadvantage against Gordon, who averages 1.90 significant strikes per minute.
The younger fighter by six years, Hadley has an unlimited ceiling. If he can stay composed, we could see an offensive clinic. While Gordon is tough, he is open against takedowns and strikes, something Hadley can take advantage of.
Sporting News prediction: Hadley via unanimous decision
Joanne Wood vs. Luana Carolina; Flyweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Joanne Wood is the -190 favorite, while Luana Carolina is the +145 underdog.
At one point considered the next big flyweight contender, Wood has lost three in a row, two via submission. She faces a fighter in Carolina who had her momentum stopped by Molly McCann in March 2022 via an infamous back elbow.
Wood lands 6.76 significant strikes per minute, landing 123 at one point in a loss against Lauren Murphy. Carolina averages 4.64 per minute. Wood does get tagged often, as seen by her 4.54 strikes absorbed per minute. However, even with about a three-inch reach disadvantage, she has a strike defense mark of 52%. On the floor, Carolina can be taken down and smothered. Wood lands 1.53 takedowns per 15 minutes, an accuracy mark of 55%.
Wood is the more technically skilled fighter, facing better opposition. It would not be surprising to see her rebound and get the win.
Sporting News prediction: Wood via unanimous decision
MORE: UFC 285's role with Jake Gyllenhaal, Conor McGregor and 'Road House'
Jai Herbert vs. Ludovit Klein; Lightweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Ludovit Klein is the -185 favorite, while Jai Herbert is the +140 underdog.
Klein lands 3.51 significant strikes per minute and has a 56% strike accuracy mark. He is on a two-fight win streak. Herbert is 2-3 in his last five fights and lands 2.45 significant strikes per minute, with a 41% strike accuracy mark.
On the floor, Klein has eight submission wins and averages 1.02 takedowns landed. They don't call him "Mr. Highlight" for nothing. Herbert has the edge in reach (five inches) and height (six inches) but has durability issues.
Susceptible to the KO, Herbert may fall victim to Klein's heavy hands.
Sporting News prediction: Klein via KO (round one)
Juliana Miller vs. Veronica Hardy; Flyweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Juliana Miller is the -450 favorite, while Veronica Hardy is the +310 underdog.
Hardy has been out of action for about three years due to concussion issues. Before that, she was 1-4 inside the octagon. During her time in the octagon, Hardy was taken down eight times and was oustruck (significant strikes) 265-164.
Miller made her octagon debut in August, taking down Brogan Walker four times. Miller has two wins via submission and one via knockout in her career. Known as "Killer," that name may hold value against Hardy.
Given her concussion history and ring rust, the thought of an upset from Hardy is not wise here.
