Israel Adesanya will attempt to tie Anderson Silva's record for consecutive victories at middleweight with 13 when he aims for his sixth defense of his 185-pound championship at UFC 281 on November 12.
However, his opponent will be a familiar one in the undefeated (in the octagon) Alex Pereira. Before Adesanya made his mark in the UFC, he suffered a pair of defeats to Pereira in kickboxing, including one by knockout. And now that Pereira has shown up in the UFC and acclimated himself in mixed martial arts, he will look to defeat "The Last Stylebender" a third time when he challenges him in the main event.
Since losing to Pereira in Glory of Heroes in 2017, Adesanya has gone on to have a stellar MMA career with 23 wins and only one loss, when he attempted to move up in weight and fell short against Jan Blachowicz for the light heavyweight title. But now his worst nightmare has returned.
Pereira lost his pro MMA debut in 2015 but has since won six fights in a row -- including his first three UFC fights. He punched his ticket for a title opportunity when he brutally stopped Sean Strickland in July. And now he gets the opportunity to put an end to Adesanya's title run.
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The Sporting News breaks down the betting lines for this highly anticipated showdown.
Betting Odds for Adesanya vs. Pereira
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook:
- Israel Adesanya: -210
- Alex Pereira: +162
Prop Bets for Adesanya vs. Pereira
- Adesanya by (T)KO: +360
- Adesanya by Submission: +1400
- Adesanya by Decision: +130
- Pereira by (T)KO: +270
- Pereira by Submission: +2600
- Pereira by Decision: +650
MORE: Everything you need to know about UFC 281
Expert Prediction for Adesanya vs. Pereira
Israel Adesanya has finally met his match.
For the first time in his MMA career, Adesanya won’t enter the octagon as the superior striker that his opponent will have to figure out. Instead, he’ll be standing across the cage from a familiar foe who is just as, if not more, devastating in the striking department and will put the champion in uncomfortable positions from the start of the bout.
This is a legacy fight for Adesanya, one that will define his career. The UFC middleweight champion is aware of this, along with the fact that he’s 0-2 against the Brazilian. How he’ll be remembered is anchored heavily in the outcome of the fight.
For those who have complained about Adesanya fighting safe, it is highly likely that “The Last Stylebender” will be forced to come out of his shell against his nemesis. Unlike previous opponents, Pereira’s, aggression, kickboxing discipline, and fluidity won’t allow Adesanya to sit back and pick his spots. For much of his UFC career, he’s had the luxury of being the sharper striker and resting on his pinpoint counters to dissect his opponents. And if his opponents refuse to engage, he’s perfectly fine cruising to a decision. If they overcommit, Adesanya will run them into a fight-ending counterstrike.
Pereira is different.
Because of his lauded striking and pedigree, Pereira won’t be as weary engaging, and will force the champion to fight back for as long as the battle goes on. It’s almost as if Adesanya will be staring in the mirror at a more violent version of himself.
Not to mention that Pereira has a knockout victory over him.
But the key here is how much Adesanya has improved since suffering that knockout loss — the only one of his career — almost six years ago. At age 33, Adesanya is in his physical prime and has already shown significant growth as a mixed martial artist during his nearly five-year tenure in the UFC.
Pereira has been an absolute wrecking machine during his brief time as a mixed martial artist and is likely aware that he’s being fast-tracked to the top because of his history with Adesanya. But Adesanya also is out of opponents.
If Pereira makes the mistake of thinking that this Adesanya is the same person he knocked out, he’ll be in for a rude awakening. This incensed version of Adesanya will be fighting for his life, but that is when he’s at his best.
MORE: Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira timeline
This may steal Fight of the Night honors when it is all said and done, considering the violent nature of both Adesanya and Pereira’s standup. The difference will be pure perseverance, as Adesanya has fought 25 minutes seven times in his MMA career, while Pereira has yet to go five rounds.
Adesanya is a master of making his opponents pay for their mistakes, and as the bout wears on, he will find more openings the deeper the fight gets. Pereira is too confident to back down, and he’ll end up on the wrong side of a violent exchange somewhere in the middle rounds as Adesanya avenges his only knockout loss by putting away his rival in legacy-sealing fashion.
