Editor's note: This story was published before Khamzat Chimaev missed weight on Friday, leading to three changed fights at UFC 279. As a result, Chimaev is no longer fighting Nate Diaz in the main event.
At UFC 279, Nate Diaz will compete in the final fight under his UFC deal. The company has matched him up against a young monster in Khamzat Chimaev. Diaz will look to go out on top, while Chimaev is ready to crush the Stockton native.
Diaz and Chimaev will fight on Saturday inside Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena.
Also on the card will be the return of Tony Ferguson, an important bantamweight fight between Macy Chiasson and Irene Aldana, and more.
MORE: Sign up to watch the UFC 279 PPV, exclusively on ESPN+
The Sporting News, with the help of Sports Interaction, takes a closer look at the UFC 279 card. Can we expect any upsets?
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz; Welterweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Chimaev is the -965 favorite, while Diaz is the +580 underdog.
The Sporting News recently looked at this matchup and gave a clear edge to Chimaev. The question is simple: Will Chimaev put Diaz into an early grave, or can Diaz pull off the upset?
For starters, Diaz is 1-3 in his past four fights and has not consistently fought since 2016. Chimaev is riding a five-fight win streak inside the octagon. The latter landed 108 shots and two takedowns in his last bout against Gilbert Burns. That proved that he could mess around with the best in the division. Diaz is not that anymore. He still manages to surprise people.
Diaz averages 4.51 significant strikes per minute, has a strike accuracy mark of 45 percent, and a strike defense mark of 52 percent. While his movement is unorthodox, he adds heavy pressure and volume boxing to his resume. That has resulted in Diaz going toe-to-toe with his opponents and providing enough damage to hurt them. He will let the opponent dictate the pace of the fight, but when he is ready, Diaz will counter-strike like a true force.
In his short time in the octagon, Chimaev has bullied his opponents. Averaging 7.89 strikes per minute, Chimaev has often doubled his big blows compared with his opponents. He also is a submission magician, with two quick wins in the octagon via submission. Overall, Chimaev has six wins via knockout and four via submission. Burns was his biggest test, and he thrived.
A lot of factors will come into play for this fight. Will Chimaev underestimate Diaz, who is competing under his last UFC contract? Knowing the writing is on the wall, will Diaz mail it in? Or will he look to attack right away? This fight has drastic implications for both fighters, especially with a Chimaev loss.
If you are inclined, it would not be out there to choose Diaz via TKO or a surprise submission. He could even surprise fans with a late offensive push like in the Leon Edwards fight. However, logically speaking, Chimaev should get the win here.
Sporting News prediction: Chimaev via unanimous decision
MORE: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz purse at UFC 279
Li Jingliang vs. Tony Ferguson; Welterweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Jingliang is the -280 favorite, while Ferguson is the +205 underdog.
Just like Nate Diaz, Tony Ferguson is a true fan favorite. His unique style has provided him with dominant and violent wins over the years. Pressure has always been key. That is especially true on the feet. His cardio early on has been something to praise. It is also one of the reasons why Ferguson has been on a four-fight losing streak, with two losses via knockout.
Ferguson averages 5.12 significant strikes per minute (4.39 for Jingliang). He also absorbs a lot of damage, averaging 3.81 strikes taken. Recently, he has been susceptible to the takedown, with seven takedowns landed against him in three fights. Jingliang averages 1.27 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed five in his past five bouts.
Jingliang can box and wrestle with the best of them. He is known to be a little too aggressive. That was evident in his fight against Khamzat Chimaev, when he lost via submission. Against Ferguson, outboxing an opponent like that may seem crazy. Jingliang is never one to back away from a challenge.
As Ferguson’s age begins to climb and the damage he has taken starts to catch up to him, one has to wonder how much more he can handle. While he can still go, the front kick KO loss to Michael Chandler at UFC 274 was a big wakeup call for many. Was it for him, or is Ferguson still under the impression that he can fight the same way without consequence?
Fans will be rooting for Ferguson. The Sporting News will agree with the odds. It could be a violent affair, but one that Jingliang will take advantage of.
Sporting News prediction: Jingliang via TKO (round two)
Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez; Catchweight
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Holland is the -225 favorite, while Rodriguez is the +165 underdog.
When he is not a local superhero, Holland is winning fights. Since moving back to welterweight this year, he is 2-0 with a submission and knockout win. Rodriguez is on a three-fight win streak but hasn't fought since 2021 because of a hand injury.
Rodriguez is a prolific striker, averaging 8.06 significant strikes per minute (3.90 for Holland). He landed 120 against Kevin Lee and 129 against Mike Perry. “D-Rod” has a 57 percent strike defense mark, which he will need against Holland, who has a 54 percent strike accuracy mark.
Holland has improved significantly since moving from middleweight to welterweight. His hand speed while keeping the distance is something to marvel. Holland’s jabs are quick and painful.
MORE: What is Nate Diaz’s UFC record? Bio, age, stats, fights for MMA star
On the floor is where Holland has always had issues. It was something that halted his development. He has improved, however, and if everything comes together he can be a truly dangerous fighter.
Time and training are both on Holland’s side. “Trailblazer,” looking to be taken seriously in the division, is ready to use his seven-inch reach advantage against Rodriguez. Has Rodriguez adapted since his injury?
Sporting News prediction: Holland via KO (round one)
Macy Chiasson vs. Irene Aldana; Bantamweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Aldana is the -180 favorite, while Chiasson is the +145 underdog.
This fight is between a power puncher and a grappler who can manage to stretch a bout out. Aldana has an impressive power game. She averages 5.61 significant strikes landed per minute. Aldana has seven wins via knockout, with two in the UFC. Chiasson averages 3.70 strikes. Aldana does absorb a lot of damage, with about 5.94 strikes per minute going against her. Holly Holm landed 154 shots against her 69.
On the floor is where Chiasson has an edge. She averages 1.95 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Chiasson landed six against Norma Dumont and has 11 in her past four fights. Aldana was taken down five times against Holm and has an 84 percent takedown defense mark. Chiasson loves to get in dog fights, as she looks to take opponents down by any means necessary.
While Chiasson can pressure Aldana, can she fight within the clinch? She needs to be mindful of Aldana’s power, especially her left hook. It’s hard to imagine that Aldana makes it easy for Chiasson, and the former may strike her down when all is said and done.
This is a fantastic fight for the bantamweight division.
Sporting News prediction: Aldana via TKO (round two)
Johnny Walker vs. Ion Cuțelaba; Light Heavyweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Cutelaba is the -230 favorite, while Walker is the +165 underdog.
This is a must-win fight for both fighters. The unranked Cuțelaba is 1-3-1 in his past five bouts. Walker, ranked 13th, is 1-4 in his previous five.
Walker averages 3.45 significant strikes per minute (4.81 for Cutelaba) and has a strike defense mark of 42 percent (48 percent for Cutelaba). Cutelaba has the edge on the floor, averaging 4.75 takedowns. He has taken down the opposition 11 times in his past two fights. However, Cutelaba hasn’t managed to balance his wrestling with his striking, and his overall stamina has been questioned.
While he has shown signs of dominance, Walker has yet to take advantage of the moment. Perhaps during a time of dire need he will do what it takes to secure the win. Going back to his roots, while also being cautious, could be something that works out for the Brazilian.
Sporting News prediction: Walker via KO (round one)
MORE: UFC 279 date, start time, odds, schedule & card
Hakeem Dawodu vs. Julian Erosa; Featherweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Dawodu is the -225 favorite, while Erosa is the +160 underdog.
Both fighters are 2-1 in their past three fights, with Dawodu winning six bouts for the UFC and Erosa winning four. Both are excellent strikers. Erosa lands 6.29 significant strikes per minute and has landed a combined 258 shots in his past two bouts. Dawodu averages 5.39 significant strikes per minute, with 141 of them in his previous fight.
On the ground, Erosa has the edge. He averages 1.69 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has taken down his opponents eight times in five fights. Dawodu has been taken down 12 times in four bouts.
If Dawodu can keep it on his feet, he will walk out the victor. Erosa, however, is elusive and will also throw anything at Dawodu to keep him down. Dawodu needs to keep his distance and strike when the moment is right. Based on the stats, however, Erosa needs one opportunity to secure the win.
Sporting News prediction: Erosa via submission (round two)
Jailton Almeida vs. Anton Turkalj; Catchweight
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Almeida is the -825 favorite, while Turkalj is the +510 underdog.
This bout has one of the widest difference of odds you will see. Turkalj is 8-0 inside the octagon but has only one UFC fight to his name. He will also be a replacement opponent on 10 days notice. Almeida is 3-0 inside the octagon (16-2 overall). All of his wins have come via stoppage, with 10 via submission.
In his Dana White’s Contender Series debut, Turkalj landed 11 takedowns. Almeida, a Contender Series alum himself, has landed six in three fights in the octagon. He is known to share the wealth, averaging 3.48 significant strikes per minute.
Almeida moved up a weight class to take on Parker Porter in a heavyweight fight. His flexibility and durability may make him too big of a challenge for Turkalj. The latter can try to take him down, but if they somehow stay on their feet Almeida has the edge.
If you are looking for the shock value, choose Turkalj. The smart bet, however, would be to listen to the odds for this one.
Sporting News prediction: Almeida via TKO (first round)
Denis Tiuliulin vs. Jamie Pickett; Middleweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Pickett is the -140 favorite, while Tiuliulin is the +110 underdog.
Tiuliulin is 10-6 but lost his debut fight in March. During that bout, he was taken down twice and submitted. He faces a Dana White’s Contender Series veteran in Pickett, who averages 1.57 takedowns per 15 minutes. Pickett is 2-2 in his past four fights and has won eight bouts via knockout. During his two-fight win streak (before losing to Kyle Daukaus), Pickett landed four takedowns.
With a complete resume inside the octagon and a ground game that impresses, Pickett has a chance to tire out Tiuliulin throughout the fight. It may very well be a good rebound bout for Pickett.
Sporting News prediction: Pickett via unanimous decision
MORE: MMA schedule 2022: Date, division, location for upcoming fights
Jake Collier vs. Chris Barnett; Heavyweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Collier is the -435 favorite, while Barnett is the +300 underdog.
On paper, this fight favors Collier. “The Prototype” has traded back-and-forth wins and losses in the UFC since his debut in 2014. Barnett is 1-2 in the UFC, his last fight a loss after he couldn’t continue following an elbow to the head. Barnett has 17 wins via knockout.
Collier’s overall fundamentals trump Barnett’s skills. Collier lands about 5.67 significant strikes per minute, has an accuracy mark of 43 percent, and a strike defense mark of 51 percent. He also averages 0.81 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy mark of 44 percent.
Outside of a dramatic knockout of Gian Villante in 2021, Barnett has been badly outstruck by his opponents. He absorbs 5.59 significant strikes per minute and lands 3.60 significant strikes.
If he gets to the floor, Collier can outwork Barnett. He can also damage him in range. But what if Barnett gets to him first? Upsets can happen at these events, and the odds are wide enough that anything is possible. Barnett has proven throughout his career that he needs one opportunity to get the win. With a few possibilities for some upsets at UFC 279, Barnett via knockout might take the cake.
Sporting News prediction: Barnett via TKO (round two)
Norma Dumont vs. Danyelle Wolf; Featherweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Dumont is the -435 favorite, while Wolf is the +300 underdog.
This will be Wolf’s second pro fight in the UFC, as she is a Dana White’s Contender Series alum. Dumont is 3-2 since joining the UFC but is known for missing weight twice.
Dumont uses her jab and her sidekick to attack from a distance. That way, she can set up power shots. As a result, Dumont has landed about 3.67 significant strikes per minute. On her most recent three-fight win streak, Dumont landed 227 shots. While she was taken down six times by Macy Chiasson in her last fight, Dumont has a 70 percent takedown defense mark and averages 1.02 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Because Dumont likes to play it safe and away, Wolf will want to play it close to the vest. Her jab is powerful. Something to keep in mind is leg kicks, something she has yet to learn to avoid. As the veteran, Dumont can adapt well. The unknown factor with Wolf, especially with transitions, is that it’s hard to pinpoint where she stands against someone like Dumont.
Even with a three-inch reach advantage and a four-inch height advantage, Wolf still has a few things to learn. Expect Dumont to come out the victor here.
Sporting News prediction: Dumont via unanimous decision
Chad Anheliger vs. Alateng Heili; Bantamweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Alateng is the -170 favorite, while Anheliger is the +130 underdog.
It is a battle of two veterans, with Anheliger new to the octagon. A Dana White’s Contender Series alum, Anheliger has won two straight in the UFC. He averages 3.99 significant strikes per minute and has a strike defense mark of 50 percent.
Alateng made his pro debut in 2013 and is 3-1-1 since joining the UFC. He boasts a 2.86 significant strikes landed per minute mark with a defense mark of 58 percent. The only time he was at a disadvantage was when Casey Kenney landed 109 shots against him.
With enough experience in the octagon and the force to outlast his opponent, Alateng might have enough to beat Anheliger.
Sporting News prediction: Anheliger via unanimous decision
MORE: Will the UFC be returning to Canada any time soon?
Melissa Martinez vs. Elise Reed; Strawweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Martinez is the -165 favorite, while Reed is the +130 underdog.
Reed is a former Cage Fury FC strawweight champion and is 1-2 in the UFC. Martinez is making her UFC debut but is 7-0 in MMA competition, with five wins via knockout.
Reed lands about 2.88 significant strikes per minute. She also has a strike defense of 52 percent. An issue she faces, however, is that she is vulnerable to the takedown game. Reed has been taken down eight times in her three UFC fights. Martinez is known for picking her spots and landing brutal blows.
While we may not see Martinez go to the ground, Reed will have a severe disadvantage when it comes to Martinez’s power. And that is where the odds are correct to be in Martinez’s favor.
Sporting News prediction: Martinez via TKO (round two)
Darian Weeks vs. Yohan Lainesse; Welterweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Weeks is the -140 favorite, while Lainesse is the +110 underdog.
Weeks and Lainesse are coming off losses, with the former on a two-fight skid. Weeks lands 5.27 significant strikes per minute, with 118 of them in his UFC debut. He also absorbs a lot of damage, averaging 6.07 significant strikes per minute. That is what happens when you face the likes of Ian Garry and Bryan Barberena.
Lainesse had his undefeated streak snapped at the hands of Gabe Green. “White Lion” can give damage as much as he can take, which tells a lot about his stamina.
Although Weeks is prone to more damage, he has faced tougher opponents than Lainesse. If he can land volume shots without getting damaged this time, Weeks could secure his first UFC win.
Sporting News prediction: Weeks via KO (round one)
MORE: Sign up to watch the UFC 279 PPV, exclusively on ESPN+
When is UFC 279: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz?
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 10
- Start time: 6:15 p.m. ET | 11:15 PM BST | 8 a.m. AEST
- Prelims: 8 p.m. ET | 1 a.m. BST | 10 a.m. AEST
- Main card: 10 p.m. ET | 3 a.m. BST | 12 p.m. AEST
- Main event: 12:15 a.m. ET | 5:15 a.m. BST | 2:15 p.m. AEST (Approximately)
UFC 279 takes place on Sept. 10. The FIGHT PASS prelims take place at 6:15 p.m. ET, with the prelims going on after at 8 p.m. ET. The main card goes live at 10 p.m. ET. Chimaev and Diaz should make their way to the octagon around 12:15 a.m. ET, depending on how long the undercard fights last.
How to watch UFC 279: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz
- TV channels: ESPN+
- Live stream: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass
The main card for UFC 279 is available in the U.S. and Mexico on the ESPN+ subscription streaming service for a pay-per-view cost.
Earlier fights are viewable live on ESPN+, the WatchESPN app and, for the early prelims, on UFC Fight Pass.
In Canada, the main card pay-per-view is available on TSN, Bell, Rogers, Shaw, Eastlink and UFC PPV on UFC Fight Pass.
In the United Kingdom, the main card will be available on BT Sport, with the prelims available on UFC Fight Pass.
In Australia, the main card will be on Main Event, Kayo Sports, FOXTEL and UFC PPV on UFC Fight Pass.
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz price: How much does UFC 279 cost?
- $74.99 (current ESPN+ subscribers)
- $99.98 (new subscribers)
In the U.S., the UFC 279 main card is available via pay-per-view on ESPN+, which also requires a subscription. The PPV price for UFC 279 is $74.99 for current subscribers. New subscribers can pay a bundle price of $99.98 for the UFC 279 pay-per-view and an ESPN+ annual subscription, which offers savings of more than 30 percent.
MORE: Sign up to watch the UFC 279 PPV, exclusively on ESPN+
| Product | Prices |
|---|---|
| ESPN+ Monthly Subscription | $9.99/month |
| ESPN+ Annual Subscription | $99.99/year |
| The Disney Bundle w/Hulu Ad-Supported | $13.99/month |
| The Disney Bundle w/Hulu No-Ads | $19.99/month |
| UFC PPV Standalone | $74.99 each |
| UFC PPV Package (UFC PPV & ESPN+ Annual) | $99.98, then $69.99/year |
| UFC PPV & The Disney Bundle | $88.98, then $13.99/month |
Click here to learn about the different pricing and bundling options with the ESPN+ platform.
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