UFC bantamweight champion Julianna Pena will look to duplicate the unthinkable when she defends her title against arguably the greatest female MMA fighter in a return bout with Amanda Nunes at UFC 277.
MORE: Sign up to watch the UFC 277 PPV, exclusively on ESPN+
Pena shocked the world when she submitted Nunes last December, despite being a massive underdog against the woman who has victories over the likes of Ronda Rousey, Cris Cyborg, and Valentina Shevchenko (twice).
Pena has her opportunity to prove she isn't James "Buster" Douglas, while Nunes will look to show the world that her loss was merely a bump in the road, as she looks to reclaim her status as the GOAT of women's MMA.
The Sporting News breaks this fight down from a betting perspective and gives you our expert pick on who will win the fight and how.
Betting lines courtesy of FanDuel
Betting Odds for Julianna Pena vs. Amanda Nunes 2
- Julianna Pena: +230
- Amanda Nunes: -310
Prop Betting lines for Pena vs. Nunes 2
- Pena by decision: +550
- Pena by submission: +490
- Pena by (T)KO: +1200
- Nunes by decision: +420
- Nunes by submission: +500
- Nunes by (T)KO: +145
MORE: Total purse info for UFC 277
Expert prediction for Pena vs. Nunes 2
Historically, when an all-time great gets upset by a massive underdog, their career is unable to recover.
This won’t be that.
There are a lot of things to consider in the fallout from the first fight. Nunes revealed a knee injury that prevented her from training at full capacity. But it’s the bout with COVID that pushed back the original fight date that should raise the most eyebrows, considering how their first meeting ended.
After clobbering Pena in the first round and nearly getting a finish, Nunes was completely spent heading into the second round. Her heavy breathing and dialed-back pace signaled that the Brazilian was physically spent. Pena simply needed to apply pressure to put an end to Nunes’ reign as champion. If you combine that with the suggestion — and subsequent affirmation — that Nunes had been complacent since becoming champion, there was a cocktail for disaster that needed to be shaken and stirred to manifest.
Pena would be foolish to think she had the best version of Nunes in front of her back in December. And even that version nearly finished her inside of five minutes. And a fully healthy and motivated Nunes will be bad news for the current champion.
Nunes remains a tough betting pick at -310 and will require a hefty wager to see a decent return. To maximize your earning potential, you will have to hit on a prop bet.
MORE: Top 10 women's fights in MMA history
It’s highly unlikely that this fight will go the full 25 minutes, and Nunes’ explosive offense will render the judges useless. Interestingly enough, Pena has only one KO loss in her career, courtesy of a doctor stoppage between rounds against Sarah Moras in 2012. Oddsmakers believe that Nunes has a great chance of knockout Pena out with a solid betting line of +145, yet don’t really consider a submission a possibility at +500. As a matter of fact, oddsmakers think Nunes has a better chance of winning by decision at +420.
It may seem like a long shot, but Nunes has submitted both Megan Anderson and Miesha Tate, and three of her last eight finishes have been by submission. Considering that Pena has been susceptible to submissions, with her last two losses seeing her tap out and some pretty good punch resistance, there is a way that Nunes becomes the third person to submit the champion.
As in the first fight, Pena will likely find herself put on the canvas by a punch at some point in the fight. Instead of focusing on her power right away, Nunes would be well served following her to the canvas and applying a choke to her wounded opponent, as she did when she submitted Tate to win the bantamweight title back in 2016. And at +500, it’s just too good to pass up.
Sporting News Prediction: Nunes by submission (+500)
When is UFC 277: Julianna Pena vs. Amanda Nunes 2?
- Date: Saturday, July 30
- Fight Pass prelims: 6 p.m. ET
- Prelims: 8 p.m. ET
- Main card: 10 p.m. ET
- Main event: 12:15 a.m. ET (approximate)
UFC 277 will take place on Saturday, July 30. The Fight Pass prelims will start at 6 p.m. ET, with the prelims to begin at 8 p.m. ET. The main card PPV will start at 10 p.m. ET. Pena and Nunes should make their way to the Octagon around 12:15 a.m. ET, depending on how long the undercard fights last.
How to watch UFC 277: Julianna Pena vs. Amanda Nunes 2
- TV channels: ESPN+
- Live stream: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass
The main card for UFC 277 is available in the U.S. and Mexico on the ESPN+ subscription streaming service for a pay-per-view cost.
Earlier fights are viewable live on ESPN+, the WatchESPN app, and, for the early prelims, on UFC Fight Pass.
In Canada, the main card pay-per-view is available on TSN, Bell, Rogers, Shaw, Eastlink, and UFC PPV on UFC Fight Pass.
In the United Kingdom, the main card will be available on BT Sport 1, with the prelims available on UFC Fight Pass.
In Australia, the main card will be on Main Event, Kayo Sports, FOXTEL, and UFC PPV on UFC Fight Pass.
Julianna Pena vs. Amanda Nunes 2 price: How much does UFC 277 cost?
- $74.99 (current ESPN+ subscribers)
- $99.98 (new subscribers)
In the U.S., the UFC 277 main card is available via pay-per-view on ESPN+, which also requires a subscription. The PPV price for UFC 277 is $74.99 for current subscribers. New subscribers can pay a bundle price of $99.98 for the UFC 277 pay-per-view and an ESPN+ annual subscription, which offers savings of more than 30 percent.
MORE: Sign up to watch the UFC 277 PPV, exclusively on ESPN+
| Product | Prices |
|---|---|
| ESPN+ Monthly Subscription | $6.99/month |
| ESPN+ Annual Subscription | $69.99/year |
| The Disney Bundle w/Hulu Ad-Supported | $13.99/month |
| The Disney Bundle w/Hulu No-Ads | $19.99/month |
| UFC PPV Standalone | $74.99 each |
| UFC PPV Package (UFC PPV & ESPN+ Annual) | $99.98, then $69.99/year |
| UFC PPV & The Disney Bundle | $88.98, then $13.99/month |
* Beginning Aug. 23, ESPN+'s monthly subscription will change from $6.99 per month to $9.99 per month. The annual ESPN+ subscription package will change from $69.99 a year to $99.99 a year.
There is no change to the standalone PPV price, or to the Disney Bundle.
Click here to learn about the different pricing and bundling options with the ESPN+ platform.
UFC 277 fight card
Main card
- Julianna Pena (c) vs. Amanda Nunes 2 for the UFC bantamweight title
- Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara-France for the interim UFC flyweight title
- Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich; heavyweights
- Alexandre Pantoja vs. Alex Perez; flyweights
- Anthony Smith vs. Magomed Ankalaev; light heavyweights
Prelims
- Drew Dober vs. Rafael Alves; lightweights
- Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Don’Tale Mayes; heavyweights
- Rafa García vs. Drakkar Klose; lightweights
- Alex Morono vs. Matthew Semelsberger; welterweights
Fights Pass prelims
- Adam Fugitt vs. Michael Morales; welterweights
- Ji Yeon Kim vs. Joselyne Edwards; bantamweights
- Orion Cosce vs. Mike Mathetha; welterweights
- Nicolae Negumereanu vs. Ihor Potieria; light heavyweights
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