Hugh Citron is the first oddsmaker to post lines on MMA fights in Las Vegas. He contributes to The Linemakers on Sporting News for key UFC events.
ED. NOTE: This article has been updated to reflect the news Wednesday that Jon Jones will not fight in UFC 200 because of a possible doping violation.
UFC gives us its best card ever from top to bottom Saturday night from Las Vegas with UFC 200. The main event was supposed to be Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier for Cormier's light heavyweight belt, but Jones was removed from the card Wednesday night after the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency flagged an out-of-competition doping test taken in June.
The new main event will be Brock Lesnar vs. Mark Hunt in a heavyweight bout. The fight will be Lesnar's first in UFC in 4 1/2 years.
MORE: UFC replaces McGregor-Diaz main event
Lesnar vs. Hunt betting pick
This was to be the co-feature before Jones was pulled from the card. Even before Wednesday, this might have been the most anticipated fight of the evening: a heavyweight fight between 5-3 Brock Lesnar and 12-10-1 Mark Hunt. Hunt is a -170 favorite with Lesnar getting +150 as the underdog.
Lesnar's last two UFC fights were less than stellar. In October 2010 he was KO'd by Cain Velasquez in the first round and in December 2011 he was also finished in the first round by Alistair Overeem. For Lesnar, now 38, this seems like a great chance for him to get one last win in the octagon to erase those last two fights.
Mark Hunt, now 42, just seems to be getting better as first-round KO's in his last two fights over Antonio Silva and Frank Mir signal just how dangerous he is. This fight could come down to one simple question — can Lesnar get Hunt to the ground? If Lesnar can get the much smaller Hunt to the ground he should easily win the rounds and stay out of danger from Hunt's serious power punches. For Hunt to win this fight it seems pretty obvious that he would need to keep this fight on the feet and land some serious punches and probably get a KO win.
Pick: The thinking here is that Lesnar will control this fight and probably get it to the ground and maybe even submit Hunt or stop him from the ground and pound positions. Take Brock Lesnar and the +150 to defeat Mark Hunt.
Tate vs. Nunes betting pick
Also on the card, the women's bantamweight title is on the line as champion Miesha Tate defends her belt against Amanda Nunes. Tate is a -250 favorite to retain her title with Nunes getting about 2-1 as the underdog. Nunes has won her last three fights and should be real confident coming into this bout, but Tate has also won her last five fights including a spectacular fifth round finish over Holly Holm in March of this year to win the title.
Pick: Since losing in December of 2013 to Ronda Rousey, Tate has looked like a different fighter. This seems like a reasonable price for the favorite here as I just don't see too many ways for Nunes to win this fight. Take Miesha Tate to defeat Amanda Nunes and retain her women's bantamweight title.
Aldo vs. Edgar
Yet another great fight on the card with the interim featherweight title on the line with Jose Aldo 25-2 facing Frankie Edgar 19-4-1. This fight is close to a pick'em fight with Edgar a slight favorite in some spots. Edgar has won five in a row since he lost in unanimous decision to Aldo. Now 34, Edgar has never looked better and the former lightweight champion looks primed for a big performance Saturday night. Aldo, who had won 18 fights in a row spanning 10 years, is coming off a devastating 13-second first-round KO loss to Conor McGregor in December of 2015.
Normally, I'm willing to forgive one bad performance but sometimes a devastating KO like that last one can have a lingering effect. Not sure Aldo is the same fighter he was a few years ago when at times he looked unbeatable. This could be the best fight of the night with lots of action in every round as both fighters love to throw lots of punches with incredible foot movement. Just think this is a better spot for Edgar coming into this fight with more confidence than Aldo.
Pick: Take Frankie Edgar as the small favorite to defeat Jose Aldo and become interim featherweight champion.