Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joel Alvarez odds courtesy of Sports Interaction, Canada’s most trusted sportsbook.
The lightweight division will be on full display at UFC Vegas 49, as Islam Makhachev and Bobby Green will fight to become a potential contender for the UFC lightweight title. On Feb. 26 inside the UFC’s APEX Center, there will be more lightweights fighting for brand supremacy.
Sporting News, with the help of Sports Interaction, takes a closer look at an important matchup within the division in Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joel Alvarez.
MORE: UFC Vegas 49: Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green fight date, time, price, odds & location
When is UFC Vegas 49: Makhachev vs. Green?
- Date: Saturday, Feb. 26
- Start time: 4 p.m. ET
- Main card: 7 p.m. ET
- Main event: 10:15 p.m. ET (approximately)
UFC Vegas 49 takes place on Feb. 26. The event starts at 4 p.m. ET with the main card beginning at 7 p.m. ET. Makhachev and Green will make their way to the octagon at 10:15 p.m. ET, depending on how long the undercard fights last.
How to watch UFC Vegas 49: Makhachev vs. Green
- TV channels/live stream: ESPN+
The prelims and the main card for UFC Vegas 49 will be available on the ESPN+ streaming service.
Fighter overview
Ranked 13th in the UFC's lightweight rankings, Tsarukyan made his pro debut in 2015. He joined the UFC in 2019, losing to UFC Vegas 49 main eventer Islam Makhachev. Since then, he has gone on a four-fight win streak. Tsarukyan won two fights in 2021, his last bout a round-one TKO win against Christos Giagos.
Alvarez made his pro debut in 2013. Primarily fighting out of Spain, Alvarez made his UFC debut in 2019. He lost his first fight with the promotion against Damir Ismagulov. Since then, he is on a four-fight win streak. Alvarez's last fight was a TKO win over Thiago Moises in November.
Alvarez failed to make weight in his last two fights. Tsarukyan failed to make weight in January 2021 against Matt Frevola.
How the fight is leaning
According to Sports Interaction, Alvarez is the +170 underdog, meaning a wager of $37.04 can result in a $100 profit. Tsarukyan is the -230 favorite. A wager of $70 can result in a payout of $100.
When it comes to the method of victory, Tsarukyan by KO/TKO is +200 and by submission is +800. Alvarez via KO/TKO is +680 and by submission is +450.
MORE: UFC Vegas 49: Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green odds, predictions, betting trends
Who has the edge?
Just by discussing the size of both men, this fight is fascinating. Both normally have the physical edge over an opponent. At this point, however, they are considered evenly matched. They are both on four-fight win streaks, making this a bout neither man can lose.
On paper, there is no debating that Tsarukyan is the superior fighter on the ground. He has landed about 3.38 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy rate of 34%. Tsarukyan landed 10 takedowns in one fight against Frevola and has landed 14 in the octagon.
Something to keep an eye out on the ground, however, is the submission game. Tsarukyan has five wins via submission, but his last win via submission was in 2017. Alvarez does not have a "solid" ground game in the UFC, but he averages 1.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He has 16 wins via submission, two with the UFC. It is safe to say he can be dangerous on the floor and can even hold his own against Tsarukyan.
On the feet, Tsarukyan has landed 3.59 significant strikes per minute, while Alvarez has landed 3.99. Alvarez has a strike accuracy rate of 43% (46% for Tsarukyan) and a strike defense rate of 53% (62% for Tsarukyan). Tsarukyan can land shots out of nowhere and has taken less significant damage (1.40 strikes absorbed per 15 minutes) compared to Alvarez (3.34).
Alvarez is ready to prove he belongs in the division, thanks in part to his 100% finish rate.
“He has the power to control the fight,” Alvarez stated to the UFC. “But I have the power to finish the fight. With a win I will become a name in the division. That would be 20 wins and 20 finishes. All my wins will be by finish, and I will definitely be a name in the weight class after Saturday.”
Tsarukyan screams “top prospect." There is no denying Alvarez’s rise, however. The body shots normally landed by Tsarukyan may not affect Alvarez's body size. Alvarez can finish the fight at any moment. While he has a 0% TD defense rate, it is only because he has stated he is happy to go to the ground against anyone. Is that risky? Yes, but it has not failed Alvarez thus far.
This fight can go either way. If there is a way to lean in one direction, it would be toward the man who knows how to control the mat in and out of the octagon. A surprise Alvarez submission may very well be in the cards, halting the momentum of Tsarukyan.
