Marina Rodriguez vs.Yan Xiaonan odds courtesy of Sports Interaction, Canada’s most trusted sportsbook.
One of the most highly-anticipated grudge matches will be taking place at UFC 272 on March 5. Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal will settle their rivalry inside the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Outside of that fight, there are a few interesting matchups fans might want to pay attention to.
A strawweight matchup that could determine the next top contender within the division is one of those fights. Although on the prelims, this bout has “main card” written all over it.
Sporting News, with the help of Sports Interaction, takes a closer look at a strawweight bout featuring rising stars in Marina Rodriguez and Yan Xiaonan.
MORE: UFC 272 fight date, time, odds, PPV price, card & location for Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal
Fighter overview
Rodriguez made her pro debut in 2015. Competing on Dana White's Contender Series in 2018, she fought Randa Markos to a draw in her first official fight with the promotion. Rodriguez is 6-1-2 with the UFC and is currently on a three-fight win streak. Her last loss was against Carla Esparza.
After competing at flyweight against Michelle Waterson in May 2021, Rodriguez beat Mackenzie Dern in October in her strawweight return.
Making her pro debut in 2009, Xiaonan competed for Road Fighting Championship before joining the UFC in 2017. She is 6-1 with the promotion, beating fighters like Angela Hill, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, and Claudia Gadelha.
Xiaonan last fought in May, also losing to the potential No. 1 contender in Esparza via TKO.
How the fight is leaning
According to Sports Interaction, Xiaonan is the +200 underdog, meaning a wager of $100 can result in a $200 profit. Rodriguez is the -275 favorite, meaning a $275 wager can result in a $100 profit.
MORE: UFC 272: How a Jorge Masvidal-Colby Covington fight came to be, from a war of words to the Octagon
At -268, the fight is favored to go the distance. Rodriguez via decision has a line of -140, while Xiaonan's odds are at +255. Another favorite would be Rodriguez via KO/TKO at +250.
Who has the edge?
The first thing that stands out with both fighters is their striking ability. Xiaonan has landed about 5.95 strikes per minute inside the octagon, while Rodriguez has landed 5.05. Rodriguez, however, has an edge with strike accuracy at 49% (42% for Xiaonan).
Xiaonan has a slight edge with strike defense at 61%, but the volume of shots Rodriguez lands is something to look into. In her last three fights, Rodriguez has landed 284 strikes, with 144 of those shots coming against Dern. In her past three bouts, Xiaonan has landed 172 shots. The last time Xiaonan landed over 100 strikes in a fight was against Syuri Kondo in 2018.
Rodriguez will use elbows, hooks, and her knees to inflict damage. She is a fighter with knockout power, with six wins via the power punch. She is expecting this fight to be a barnburner.
“We're two strikers, and if she really wants to stand with me, I'm sure it could be considered the Fight or Performance of the Night,” Rodriguez told the UFC. “I think she will come with a lot of desire to win, and that's important to me, because my style matches even better when the opponent is looking for a fight.”
MORE: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal odds, predictions, betting trends for UFC 272
One thing to keep an eye on is if the fight manages to go to the floor.
Xiaonan did not look particularly good against Esparza on the floor (three takedowns against her) but may not have to worry about that in this fight. Rodriguez has one single takedown in the UFC, back in 2019. She also was on the receiving end of five takedowns against Esparza.
Xiaonan did land five takedowns against Kowalkiewicz and has worked with Team Alpha Male to improve her wrestling game. She already has a 75% takedown accuracy mark and a 65% takedown defense mark (33% accuracy and 67% takedown defense mark for Rodriguez). Adding grappling to her game can make Xiaonan a dangerous fighter.
"After my last fight, my last loss, I set my goal more concretely that I need to train in the U.S. with a good team, good coaches, and good teammates that can improve my skill set," Xiaonan told CBS Sports. "I needed to leave my comfort zone, leave my home and go abroad to learn from the best.
"I learned almost everything from MMA from (Urijah Faber). He reached me a lot about striking, jiu-jitsu, and grappling. He is the kind of person that stays in the gym from the beginning to the end of the whole day. Another thing I learned from him is just his passion for MMA."
Will a takedown come into play? Rodriguez has the defensive capability to avoid getting brought down, as seen by her fight against Dern.
Rodriguez and Xiaonan have everything to gain from this fight. Due to the striking capability of Rodriguez and the fact that she has survived elite-level grappling before, it may be enough for the Brazilian to take home the win and be next in line for the UFC strawweight title.
Sporting News prediction: Rodriguez via TKO (+250)
When is UFC 272: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal?
- Date: Saturday, March 5
- Start time: 6 p.m. ET
- Prelims: 8 p.m. ET
- Main card (PPV): 10 p.m. ET
- Main event: 12:15 a.m. ET (approx.)
UFC 272: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal will take place Saturday, March 5, with the early prelims kicking off the event at 6 p.m. ET. The prelims will begin at 8 p.m. ET and the main card will start at 10 p.m. ET. Covington and Masvidal should enter the Octagon around midnight ET, depending on the length of the undercard bouts.
MORE: Sign up to watch the UFC 272 PPV, exclusively on ESPN+
How to watch UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
- TV channels: ESPN, ESPN Deportes
- Live stream: ESPN+
The main card for UFC 272 is available in the U.S. on the ESPN+ subscription streaming service for a pay-per-view cost. That portion of the event begins at 10 p.m. ET.
Earlier fights are viewable live on ESPN, the WatchESPN app and, for the early prelims, on UFC Fight Pass.
In Canada, the main card pay-per-view is available on Bell, Rogers, Shaw, SaskTel, Videotron, Telus, Eastlink and UFC PPV on UFC Fight Pass.
Click here to learn about the different pricing and bundling options with the ESPN+ platform.
Sporting News may earn an affiliate commission when you sign up for a streaming service through our links. Sporting News' affiliates have no influence over the editorial content included in this article.
