UFC 283 odds courtesy of Sports Interaction, Canada’s most trusted sportsbook.
Two titles are on the line at UFC 283, while various contenders look to show fans and UFC management why they should be fighting for gold.
UFC 283 takes place inside Brazil’s Jeunesse Arena on January 21. The main event will see Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill for the vacant UFC light heavyweight title. The co-main event will be Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno 4 for the UFC flyweight title.
Also on the stacked card will be the legendary Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, the entertaining Johnny Walker, and the powerful Jessica Andrade, among others.
The Sporting News, with the help of Sports Interaction, takes a closer look at the UFC 283 card.
MORE: Sign up to watch the UFC 283 PPV, exclusively on ESPN+
Can we expect any upsets?
Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill for the vacant UFC light heavyweight title
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Jamahal Hill is the -130 favorite, while Glover Teixeira is the +100 underdog.
It is a battle between the old and new guard of light heavyweights. Teixeira, 43, is still motivated to fight. Who exactly has the edge between the Brazilian and the 31-year-old Hill?
Hill has an edge when it comes to offense on the feet. He lands 6.46 significant strikes per minute (3.80 for Teixeira) and has an accuracy mark of 52% (50% for Teixeira). It does help that Hill has a three-inch reach advantage.
When it comes to the ground, that is where Teixeira thrives. He averages 2.20 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy of 37%. Teixeira has landed 13 takedowns in five fights. In Hill's last fight against Thiago Santos, he was dropped down six times. While he got up quickly, his stamina deteriorated as time continued.
Despite his age, Teixeira is an elite grappler. He should also be able to hold his own against Hill’s strikes. Utilizing a boxing stance and range, Teixeira, with 18 wins via knockout, can take whatever is thrown his way. However, he should not play it close to the vest, as Hill’s knockout power (three straight KO wins) is no joke.
Teixeira wants to hold gold once again. By being cautious and calculating, especially with his takedowns, the Brazilian should walk out of UFC 283 the winner.
MORE: All you need to know about UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill and Figueiredo vs. Moreno 4
Sporting News prediction: Teixeira via submission (second round)
Deiveson Figueiredo (c) vs. Brandon Moreno 4 for the UFC flyweight title
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno are even at -115.
This tetralogy bout will look to end one of the top rivalries in UFC history. Can the two continue their run of solid fights that has stretched from 2020 to now?
Regarding significant strikes landed per minute, Moreno has a slight edge with about 3.58, while Figueiredo has landed 3.27. The latter has an edge in strike accuracy with 55% compared to Moreno's 39%, but Moreno's significant strike defense (57%) can give him an advantage against Figueiredo's power. The champion has a strike defense of 52%.
Moreno has a two-inch reach advantage, but Figueiredo is known to strike at any time. Figueiredo and Moreno set the single-fight record for a UFC flyweight fight at UFC 256 with a combined 269 significant strikes landed.
One thing to watch out for if you are Figueiredo is Moreno's ground game. Moreno has landed about 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to 1.48 for Figueiredo. Before the third fight, Figueiredo had the edge in takedown accuracy. Now, Moreno leads the charge with a mark of 44% (41% for Figueiredo).
Figueiredo may be on his last legs at flyweight but will look to go out on top. Will a recent injury affect his game plan? The fresher fighter, can Moreno regain the flyweight title? Or will he be distracted working with a new coach following the recent James Krause betting scandal?
At this point, it all comes down to a coin flip. If Moreno can land takedowns and strike while the iron is hot, we could be crowning a new flyweight champion. Savor this rivalry while it lasts, folks.
MORE: Where Figueiredo vs. Moreno 4 ranks among top tetralogy fights
Sporting News prediction: Moreno via submission (round three)
Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny; Welterweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Gilbert Burns is the -495 favorite, while Neil Magny is the +335 underdog.
One thing is for sure: this could be a great scrap. Magny has the edge in significant strikes landed per minute with 3.62 (3.46 for Burns). Burns has a slight edge in strike accuracy with a mark of 48% (46% for Magny). Both are even in strike defense at 54%.
While Burns can strike, his ground game is impressive. So is Magny’s. The latter has the edge in average takedowns, landing 2.43 per 15 minutes (2.00 for Burns). Magny also has an accuracy mark of 42% (34% for Burns). Against Daniel Rodriguez in November, Magny landed five. It was the most since four against Robbie Lawler in 2020. Burns landed three against Stephen Thompson in 2021, the most since he landed three against Aleksei Kunchenko in 2019.
Magny is no pushover. However, Burns’ recent power surge and ground game may give him the edge. Looking for another shot at gold, Burns is motivated more than ever. An upset is possible but not likely.
Sporting News prediction: Burns via unanimous decision
Jessica Andrade vs. Lauren Murphy; Flyweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Jessica Andrade is the -520 favorite, while Lauren Murphy is the +350 underdog.
It is Andrade's return to flyweight after a brief return to strawweight. The former UFC strawweight champion faces the former flyweight title contender in Murphy.
It is not hard to think why Andrade is the favorite. On the feet, her striking game is impeccable. She averages 6.16 significant strikes per minute (3.84 for Murphy). Andrade also has a 50% strike accuracy mark (40% for Murphy). Murphy can produce volume blows. However, Andrade's punches, while short in quality, are deadly.
MORE: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno 4 purse, salaries
Andrade has nine wins via knockout. She also has eight wins via submission. "Bate Estaca” averages 2.85 takedowns per 15 minutes (1.11 for Murphy) and has a takedown accuracy of 55% (34% for Murphy).
A bully, Andrade can use her power to punish Murphy, who absorbs about 4.45 strikes per minute. If she connects with the perfect shot, it could be lights out for “Lucky” Lauren.
Sporting News prediction: Andrade via KO (round two)
Paul Craig vs. Johnny Walker; Light Heavyweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Johnny Walker is the -185 favorite, while Paul Craig is the +150 underdog.
Craig is coming off a lackadaisical performance against Volkan Oezdemir. That ended "BearJew's" impressive four-fight win streak. Walker is 2-2 in his last four fights and 2-4 in his previous six. Working with SBG Ireland, Walker needs a big win to prove he belongs as a top contender at light heavyweight.
Walker averages 3.36 significant strikes landed per minute, while Craig averages 2.47. Walker has the edge in accuracy with a 59% mark (46% for Craig). On the floor, Craig averages 1.85 takedowns per 15 minutes (Walker with 0.43), but Walker edges him with a takedown defense mark of 58% (50% for Craig).
There has been a massive improvement in Craig’s strike capabilities over the years. Moving forward, Craig can be dangerous. Walker must work on the grappling game and be patient with his attacks.
Both are unpredictable, which could make for a great fight. If Craig can trick Walker and take him down, Craig defying the odds (like he defies the norms of a fighter) wouldn’t be that far off to think can happen.
Sporting News prediction: Craig via submission (round one)
MORE: Dana White responds to video showing physical altercation with wife
Mauricio Rua vs. Ihor Potieria; Light Heavyweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Ihor Potieria is the -235 favorite, while Mauricio Rua is the +175 underdog.
With a 15-year age difference, this is a must-win fight for “Shogun” Rua. The former UFC light heavyweight champion, 41, has gone 2-3-1 in his last six fights and is on a two-fight losing streak. Potieria has 18 wins, eight of them via knockout, and is looking to recover from a TKO loss against Nicolae Negumereanu in July. That ended a 15-fight win streak.
In his legendary career, "Shogun" has landed 3.57 significant strikes per minute and has a 50% accuracy mark. He has a takedown average of 2.03 landed per 15 minutes and an accuracy mark of 48%. Over Rua's last two bouts, he has been taken down four times.
Rua can make this a fight, especially in his home of Brazil. Or, Potieria can continue the tradition of young stars taking out the old guard. While the former would make for a great story and a huge upset, The Sporting News is not envisioning it.
Sporting News prediction: Potieria via TKO (round two)
Brunno Ferreira vs. Gregory Rodrigues; Middleweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Gregory Rodrigues is the -330 favorite, while Brunno Ferreira is the +235 underdog.
Rodrigues is a brawler. He lands 6.19 significant strikes per minute and has a 55% strike accuracy mark, to go with a defensive mark of 51%. Rodrigues absorbs a lot of damage, absorbing 5.87 strikes per minute. On the floor, Rodrigues lands 2.39 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 50% accuracy mark.
Ferreira has a brutal ground-and-pound game and has won six of his nine fights via knockout. “The Hulk” hasn’t seen a fight last the third round and has only gone to round two twice in his career.
The unknown factor regarding Ferreira’s stamina can make this a rough matchup for him. Rodrigues can grapple away and take advantage of a few disadvantages Ferreira displays. The knockout streak for Rodrigues should continue here.
Sporting News prediction: Rodrigues via TKO (round two)
MORE: Sign up to watch the UFC 283 PPV, exclusively on ESPN+
Thiago Moises vs. Melquizael Costa; Lightweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Thiago Moises is the -365 favorite, while Melquizael Costa is the +250 underdog.
Costa, 3-1 in his last four fights, has 19 wins. Seven of them have been via knockout. Moises is 16-6 and has seven wins via submission. Moises lands 2.48 significant strikes per 15 minutes and has an accuracy mark of 37%.
On the ground, Moises averages 1.11 takedowns per 15 minutes. That may be an issue for Costa, who is susceptible to takedowns easily. His best shot is keeping Moises on his back foot. How likely is that? Moises is the clear winner if it gets to the ground, whether by tiring his opponent out or submitting him.
Sporting News prediction: Moises via unanimous decision
Mounir Lazzez vs. Gabriel Bonfim; Welterweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Gabriel Bonfim is the -180 favorite, while Mounir Lazzez is the +140 underdog.
Bonfirm is 1-0 in the UFC and 13-0 with ten wins via submission. Lazzez, a power puncher, is 2-1 in the UFC and 11-2 overall, with eight wins via knockout.
One thing to consider is the younger Bonfirm likes to tire his opponents out in a fight to secure a win. While Lazzez is patient enough, if he feels froggy he may struggle to stop the momentum of Bonfim.
Sporting News prediction: Bonfim via unanimous decision
MORE: Jake Paul signs with the PFL
Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Jailton Almeida; Heavyweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Jailton Almeida is the -1055 favorite, while Shamil Abdurakhimov is the +620 underdog.
Unless you believe the ultimate upset will happen, you might want to think again.
On a 12-fight win streak, Almeida lands 3.56 significant strikes per minute and has a 57% strike accuracy mark. Abdurakhimov, on a three-fight losing streak, averages 2.60 significant strikes and has a 44% accuracy mark. Almeida has eleven wins via submission and six via knockout. The younger Almeida should be able to take down the old guard in Abdurakhimov, who has struggled against top opponents like Curtis Blaydes, Chris Daukaus, and Sergei Pavlovich.
Sporting News prediction: Almeida via submission (round one)
Terrance McKinney vs. Ismael Bonfim; Lightweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Terrance McKinney is the -130 favorite, while Ismael Bonfim is the +100 underdog.
A Dana White's Contender Series alum, Bonfim landed 85 strikes in his debut in September against Nariman Abbasov. With 18 wins and on a 12-fight win streak, he has won eight via knockout. McKinney is 2-1 in his last two fights since returning to the UFC in 2022. The DWCS alum averages 4.70 significant strikes landed per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 56%.
With five wins via knockout and eight via submission, McKinney heads straight into battle. He will look to overwhelm Bonfim right away. Not giving Bonfim a chance to breathe, McKinney could take home another big win.
Sporting News prediction: McKinney via submission (round one)
Warley Alves vs. Nicolas Dalby; Welterweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Warley Alves is the -150 favorite, while Nicolas Dalby is the +115 underdog.
The winner of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3, Alves is 3-3 in his last six fights. Dalby is 3-1 with one no-contest in five bouts in the octagon. Dalby has a slight edge in significant strikes landed per minute with 3.22 (3.07 for Alves). Alves has an accuracy mark of 48%, while Darby has a 39% mark. On the ground, Alves has a slight edge in average takedowns landed with 1.42 (1.22 for Dalby) and an accuracy mark of 52% (31% for Dalby).
While this is his first fight since June 2021, Alves does have an edge. His takedown game is strong, while Dalby's takedown defense may need to be looked into. Dalby can storm back late in the game, but will Alves give him that opportunity?
MORE: Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill purse, salaries
Sporting news prediction: Alves via TKO (round one)
Josiane Nunes vs. Zarah Fairn; Featherweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Josiane Nunes is the -670 favorite, while Zarah Fairn is the +430 underdog.
Nunes has been an offensive wizard since joining the UFC. Getting used to the octagon setting, Fairn will have to be careful, especially regarding Nunes' 7.54 significant strikes landed per minute.
It appears that Nunes’ power could be too much for Fairn, who still needs time to adjust.
Sporting News prediction: Nunes via TKO (round two)
Luan Lacerda vs. Cody Stamann; Bantamweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Cody Stamann is the -375 favorite, while Luan Lacerda is the +265 underdog.
It is Lacerda’s UFC debut. With nine wins via submission, Lacerda is on a ten-fight win streak. Stamann has been with the UFC since 2017 and is 6-4-1 with the promotion. Facing tough competition, Stamann is 1-3 in his last four fights.
Stamann averages 4.19 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy of 47%. He also averages 2.76 takedowns per 15 minutes. A takedown defense of 75% could help him against the slippery Lacerda. However, during his three-fight losing streak Stamann was taken down seven times.
Given the unknown factor in the octagon, Lacerda could pull off the upset. That is especially true thanks to Stamann’s recent struggles.
Sporting News prediction: Lacerda via submission (round two)
MORE: How to bet on combat sports
Saimon Oliveira vs. Daniel Marcos; Bantamweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Saimon Oliveira is the -170 favorite, while Daniel Marcos is the -130 underdog.
Marcos has a 13-0 record and is 1-0 in the UFC. Seven of those wins have come via knockout. Oliveira is 18-4 with five wins via knockout and 11 via submission. He is 1-1 in the UFC. Both are alum's of the DWCS.
While he was taken down 11 times by Tony Gravely in his last fight a year ago, Oliveira is sneaky and can land submission moves out of nowhere. With his output shots, he can strike with the best of them and take his opponent down if given the opportunity. Without much to show in the UFC, picking Marcos may be tricky.
As far as a winner, this may be Oliveira’s breakout moment.
