Israel Adesanya used 2018 to go from a debuting fighter to a burgeoning superstar, one with a co-main event assignment opposite one of the greatest fighters of all-time next month in Melbourne, Australia. If he wins, “The Last Stylebender” could secure himself a middleweight title shot.
Featherweight Alexander Volkanovski debuted in the Octagon in late 2016 and flew under the radar for the whole 2017 before extending his winning streak to 16 overall with a trio of triumphs under the UFC banner last year. While he started his 2018 campaign well outside of the rankings, the former rugby man finished the year with a second-round stoppage win over Chad Mendes and a spot in the Top 5 to begin 2019.
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Perhaps the most unexpected breakout of 2018 was orchestrated by Anthony Smith, who began the year as a middleweight journeyman with a 28-12 record and a loss to Thiago Santos before moving to light heavyweight. Relocating changed everything for “Lionheart,” who rattled off three straight stoppage victories, including a third-round submission win over former title challenger Volkan Oezdemir, to establish himself as a legitimate contender.
Just a handful of days into the New Year, the 30-year-old Nebraska native was tabbed to take on Jon Jones for the light heavyweight title in the main event of UFC 235 on March 2 in Las Vegas.
Simply put, a lot can change in a year and with the UFC’s 2019 campaign set to start this week, here is a look at some of the possible breakout candidates in every weight class.
Strawweight: Maycee Barber
The 20-year-old Barber earned a UFC contract in July by pushing her record to 5-0 with a third-round stoppage win over Jamie Colleen on the Contender Series and then showed she’s one of the most promising prospects in the sport in her promotional debut four months later by finishing Hannah Cifers in devastating fashion.
Barber wants to break Jon Jones’s record for being the youngest fighter to win UFC gold and the organization will likely give her every opportunity to accomplish that task. While she should probably be brought along slowly because there is really no reason to rush an ultra-talented 20-year-old, the reality is that Barber is highly marketable and seriously talented in the cage, so “The Future” will most likely get the chance to prove that she is a present-day contender in 2019.
And here’s the thing: because she’s so young, a hiccup this year isn’t the end of the world for Barber, but a couple impressive outings against established strawweights would put her on the cusp of contention and her story and skills would make her a prime candidate for becoming someone the promotion pushes into the spotlight this year and beyond.
Flyweight: Liz Carmouche
Carmouche could be this year’s version of Smith — an established fighter who strings together a series of wins and becomes an unexpected contender — and she might be able to make it happen even quicker fashion.
The former bantamweight contender is currently ranked sixth in the flyweight division, but is coming off a dominant showing against Invicta FC titleholder Jennifer Maia in July. She’s scheduled to face Lucie Pudilova in a somewhat perplexing pairing next month and a victory there should put the 34-year-old veteran into the title conversation, where Carmouche becomes an interesting candidate to challenge new champ Valentina Shevchenko.
From a stylistic perspective, Carmouche is a tough out for anyone in the division because she’s powerful and polished and isn’t going to get caught out by big moments since she was part of one of the biggest moments in UFC history. Additionally, the San Diego-based contender already holds a win over Shevchenko and a stoppage win at that.
A couple more victories paired with the “I beat her once, I’ll beat her again” potential makes “The Girl-rilla” someone who could emerge from the pack in the flyweight division.
Flyweight: Kai Kara-France
Though he got bounced from the TUF 24 “Tournament of Champions” and didn’t receive an invite to the finale, Kara-France found his way into the Octagon at the tail end of 2018 and showed that he deserves to be competing on the biggest stage in the sport.
The 25-year-old New Zealander posted a massive strike differential against Elias Garcia en route to winning a lopsided unanimous decision and while the future of the division is in doubt, Kara-France is one to watch whether he’s competing at ’25 or ’35 in the coming year.
Bantamweight: Aspen Ladd
You know who deserved more mentions as a breakout fighter in 2018 — Aspen Ladd.
While she only made it to the Octagon once last year, the unbeaten 23-year-old sure made the most of her one appearance by defeating the ever-loving hell out of former Invicta FC champ Tonya Evinger, who went three rounds with Cris Cyborg on relatively short notice the year before.
In a fight that should have been her toughest test to date, Ladd passed it with flying colors and although it should have already been her breakthrough moment, the truth is that it kind of got lost in the shuffle because of all the chaos that followed the main event at UFC 229.
But she’s scheduled to face former champ Holly Holm as part of the massive UFC 235 fight card at T-Mobile Arena in March and a victory would put her on the very short list of potential title contenders in the bantamweight division. Regardless of the outcome, it’s a fight that should elevate the MMA Gold product’s overall name recognition and if she wins, look out.
Bantamweight: Petr Yan
Hardcore fans have been all-in on Yan for some time and committed UFC followers likely became convinced of his upside a couple weeks back when he destroyed Douglas Silva de Andrade at UFC 232. But 2019 could be the year where everyone else catches on and starts understanding that Yan is one of the biggest threats in the well-stocked bantamweight ranks.
The 25-year-old has very good boxing, a punishing top game and relentless pressure, which makes him an absolute handful inside the Octagon. He exhibits the same kind of genuine love of violence that Robbie Lawler has shown throughout his second UFC run, where each quality exchange only seems to make him more excited and more aggressive.
His year-end win over de Andrade landed Yan a place in the Top 15 and his three straight wins since debuting in the UFC in June should secure him a major opportunity right out of the gate in 2019. With another win — and another wildly entertaining performance — the 11-1 Russian will be someone everyone is talking about in the bantamweight division.
Featherweight: Megan Anderson
Options are limited in the featherweight division, but Anderson’s willingness to speak out about that is actually part of the reason she’s featured here.
The Australian contender has not been shy about airing out the women who competed at featherweight on the most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter after many of them have either signed bout agreements at bantamweight or lobbied for opportunities in the 135-pound weight class and it’s understandable. Anderson is a true featherweight and is in dire need of opponents, so seeing even inexperienced potential adversaries drop down has to be disconcerting.
But she’s also an intriguing talent who has been saddled with lofty expectations and had limited opportunities to validate the hype that has surrounded her for the last couple years. Her bout with Cat Zingano at UFC 232 was supposed to be such an opportunity, but that went sideways in a hurry and now Anderson is basically no further ahead.
With a couple good matchups — perhaps starting with that rematch she offered Zingano in the cage after their first meeting — and a pair of strong performances, the hardcore darling could emerge as someone casual fans are clamoring to see more of in 2019 as well.
Featherweight: Kron Gracie
The son of the legendary Rickson Gracie, the 30-year-old submission ace is 4-0 as a mixed martial artist and is sure to get an accelerated push into the spotlight now that he’s signed with the UFC.
His promotional debut is scheduled for Feb. 17 on the first UFC event to air on ESPN and you can be sure that his lineage and family name will be a part of the promotional build-up to the show. And if Gracie can go out and impress against Alex Caceres, there is no way that an unbeaten Gracie in the UFC isn’t going to get a major push — both from the promotion and the media — going forward.
Featherweight is one of the deepest, most talented divisions in the UFC and there are no easy outs, but if Gracie can put together two or three wins, his family name will help expedite his rise up the rankings and thrust him into the spotlight.
Lightweight: Islam Makhachev
I’m not a big fan of labeling people “The Next (Insert Superstar Name Here)” because it’s often unfair, undeserved or just plain unnecessary… however, calling Makhachev “The Next Khabib Nurmagomedov” makes a lot of sense, considering the lightweight champion himself would likely endorse the comparison.
The 27-year-old Makhachev is a long-time training partner of Nurmagomedov and enters 2019 on a four-fight winning streak. While he’s currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the Top 15, Makhachev is the kind of fighter who could end the year in the Top 5 if he got the right opportunities. And to his credit, he’s been asking for bigger name opposition.
He was linked to a fight with Francisco Trinaldo, but Makhachev was forced to withdraw for undisclosed reasons. Provided it’s nothing serious and he’s able to get back into the Octagon soon, the Dagestani upstart could be this year’s breakout fighter in the loaded lightweight division.
Welterweight: Ben Askren
Sometimes you just have to take the layup when it’s there.
While it may seem cheap to select the undefeated former Bellator and ONE Championship champion as the breakout candidate in the welterweight division, the reality is that there are a ton of people who aren’t sure Askren has what it takes to compete with the top 170-pound fighters in the UFC, especially not after more than a year away from the cage.
But he’s set to face former champ Robbie Lawler in his promotional debut at UFC 232 (seriously — the card is insane) and if he wins that one, the trash-talking grappler should get the opportunity to share the Octagon with another top contender.
Askren could realistically put himself in the title picture with two wins and anyone who goes from promotional newcomer to potential title challenger in a single calendar year deserves recognition as a potential breakout candidate … even if they have been around for nearly a decade.
Middleweight: Tom Breese
Breese was a highly-regarded welterweight prospect a few years back, but a loss to Sean Strickland and a serious knee injury halted his rise and prompted a move to middleweight. After about two years out of action, the 27-year-old Brit returned to action last May, where he swiftly dispatched Dan Kelly in the first round.
He’s scheduled to compete when the UFC heads to London in mid-March, though he’s without an opponent at the time of this writing. Regardless of whom he faces, Breese is someone to watch in the division because he’s a proven finisher with tremendous size for the division and with middleweight currently in a state of flux, it’s not inconceivable that someone would be able to follow a similar path as Adesanya and go from unranked to just outside the Top 5 with a quality 12-month stretch.
Given his age, previous results and potential, Breese is a strong choice to be that guy in 2019.
Light Heavyweight: Luke Rockhold
Some might consider this cheating, but hear me out:
Rockhold hasn’t fought since last February, when Yoel Romero knocked him out cold. He’s fought just twice since losing the middleweight title to Michael Bisping at UFC 199, which was over two years ago, and if you were to take a poll to develop a consensus opinion about Rockhold as we embark on 2019, I would wager the majority of responses would mention his myriad injuries and boisterous comments and claims on social media.
Few people would likely say “Rockhold is a guy to watch in 2019,” but Rockhold is a guy to watch in 2019 and a legit breakthrough candidate, even if it’s a second breakthrough.
No one will ever argue that the former middleweight champ isn’t ultra-talented — the knocks against him have always been health-related, with a side of “he’s too cocky” — so, if he can put the health issues behind him and make two or three starts at 205 this year, why couldn’t Rockhold do what Smith or Thiago Santos did last year?
Heavyweight: Cain Velasquez
Given that it has been more than two years since Velasquez last set foot in the Octagon and that he has only fought twice in the last five years, I don’t want to hear any complaints about suggesting Velasquez could be a breakout fighter in 2019.
While we’re still too far away from his fight with Francis Ngannou in February to rightfully get excited about the matchup, the cautiously optimistic side of every fight fan is drooling at the potential for a healthy Velasquez coming back to the heavyweight ranks.
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As much as it’s fun to joke about “Sea Level Cain” and whatever else, the fact is that most people believed Velasquez was the best heavyweight on the planet and on his way to being the best heavyweight of all time before this last extended absence.
A big effort against Ngannou would put him right back into the title conversation and depending on how things shake out in the division, it’s not unrealistic to believe Velasquez could fight for gold before the year is out.
If going from unranked to “in the mix” in one year merits breakthrough consideration, returning after being left behind and largely written off certainly has to as well.