'Cooperstown Chances' examines the Baseball Hall of Fame case of one candidate each week. This week: Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina.
Who he is: If Yadier Molina isn’t the best catcher in baseball today, he might be the most celebrated. Already one of the best defensive backstops in the game’s history, he’s won seven consecutive Gold Gloves and made seven straight All Star teams. He’s also been an integral member of the Cardinals through four National League pennants and two World Series titles, helping the Cards to another 100-win season and playoff berth this year.
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"> Ranking the 50 best players in the postseasonWhen people talk about future Hall of Famers among active players, Molina generally is in the discussion. Ryan Fagan of Sporting News named Molina one of 15 active likely Hall of Famers in July. Joe Posnanski of NBC Sports pegged Molina’s chances for Cooperstown at 84 percent, writing , “At retirement, he will have an argument as the greatest defensive catcher in the history of baseball. That gets him in, even with an average bat.”
That average bat doesn’t bode greatly for Molina’s chances. Surprisingly, the rest of his statistical case isn’t much stronger. By sabermetrics, Molina looks like far from a sure thing for Cooperstown. He likely will get in the Hall of Fame, though perhaps he shouldn’t.
Cooperstown chances: 65 percent
Why: Much of Molina’s statistical value, at least for sabermetrics, centers around his defense. With stats like wins above replacement placing far greater emphasis on offensive contributions, Molina’s case suffers a little.
According to Baseball-Reference.com, Molina has 30.3 WAR, with the average Hall of Fame catcher at 52.5. Adam Darowski of HallofStats.com gives Molina a 64 Hall Rating, with 100 the benchmark for likely Hall of Famers. Darowski has Molina as the 590th best player all-time and the 29th best catcher. Molina also falls well short of Cooperstown through JAWS, the metric devised by Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated.
Molina’s bat hurts his case. Just two catchers in the Hall of Fame, Ray Schalk and Rick Ferrell, have a lower adjusted rate of offensive production than Molina. The Veterans Committee may have inducted Schalk partly for being one of the clean White Sox in the 1919 World Series. The committee infamously voted Ferrell in by mistake . Depending if and how much 33-year-old Molina declines over his remaining seasons, he could wind up a worse hitter than Ferrell or Schalk.
To be sure, Molina’s far from the worst hitting catcher ever, by both traditional and advanced measures. Thirty-four active catchers rank worse than Molina’s -21.4 offensive runs above average for his career. His .283 lifetime batting average trails only Buster Posey among active catchers with at least 3,000 plate appearances, not counting Joe Mauer or Victor Martinez who’ve moved on to other positions. Molina’s not a bad hitter, especially when the defensive difficulty of his position is factored in. He's just a slightly below average hitter sabermetrically.
If WAR placed more stock in defense, Molina might come out better here. His 20.2 defensive WAR is tops by a wide margin among active catchers and fifth-best in baseball history. Of the four catchers in front of Molina for defensive WAR, Gary Carter is enshrined and Ivan Rodriguez could be if the furor over steroids dies down, though Bob Boone and Jim Sundberg look like long shots.
Molina’s also the fifth-best catcher ever for defensive runs above average, trailing only Carter, Rodriguez, Sundberg, and 19th century great Charlie Bennett, a favorite of the sabermetric community. Bennett’s somewhat forgotten among modern fans though Bill James noted Bennett was once well-known enough to have an MLB ballpark named after him, a sympathetic figure who lost his legs in a train accident. Bennett might be a better selection than Molina, but it wouldn’t attract 1/100th of the fanfare.
Molina’s popularity may be his greatest asset for Cooperstown aside from his defense. “I'm not sure if any player is more beloved in his home ballpark than Molina,” David Schoenfield of ESPN wrote when the Cardinals last went to the World Series in 2013.
To some extent, popularity and defensive accolades aren’t mutually exclusive. For all that sabermetrics has improved the way defensive value can be quantified, it remains highly subjective. Subjectivity matters in Hall of Fame discussions, a lot. As Fagan wrote in July, “In an abstract way, Molina feels like a Hall of Famer.”
It’s hard to describe what about Molina makes him feel like a Hall of Famer, even in spite of pedestrian offensive sabermetric stats. But there’s something about him that suggests he won’t have too many problems when he debuts on the Baseball Writers' Association of America’s ballot for Cooperstown in eight or 10 years. It may anger some in the sabermetric or online baseball writing community, but it is what it is.
It will be interesting to see how much longer Molina lasts as a regular catcher in St. Louis, how much he could add to his case and become a better selection. He needs perhaps 4-5 serviceable seasons to catch Rodriguez for best all-time among catchers for defensive runs above average or defensive WAR. It’s also worth noting that Molina currently has 1,429 hits. Just nine Hall of Fame position players have less than 1,500 hits.
At 33, Molina’s likely past the point as a catcher where he can accrue much more statistical value, unless he’s Carlton Fisk. Molina’s decline in numbers over the past two seasons suggests he doesn’t have the unusual longevity of Fisk, who accumulated nearly half his WAR after his 33rd birthday. In general, catchers age more quickly than other positions, with top backstops like Mauer, Ted Simmons and Joe Torre forced to move to other spots in the field.
For as long as Molina can remain behind the plate, he has a special career going, regardless of what any number may say. And despite some of those numbers, his chances for Cooperstown look good.'Cooperstown Chances' examines the Baseball Hall of Fame case of one candidate each week. Series author and Sporting News contributor Graham Womack writes regularly about the Hall of Fame and other topics related to baseball history at his website, Baseball: Past and Present . Follow him on Twitter: @grahamdude .