White Sox are AL's biggest surprise, but how good are they, really?

Ryan Fagan

White Sox are AL's biggest surprise, but how good are they, really? image

The White Sox have been the surprise team of the American League this season.

Expectations were mixed heading into the 2016 campaign, but nearing the end of April they own the best record (16-7) in the AL by two full games over the Orioles. That three-game sweep of the Blue Jays, in Toronto, earlier this week was really impressive. You’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who truly believed manager Robin Ventura’s team would be in this spot. 

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But how good are the White Sox, really? Is this just a fluke start to what will eventually be their eighth consecutive season that ends short of the playoffs, or is it a harbinger of things to come for what’s shaping up to be an epic season of baseball in Chicago (you’ve probably heard that other team in town, the Cubs, is pretty good, too).

Let’s start with this: The White Sox aren’t 113-win good (that’s how many games they’d claim if they maintain their current .696 winning percentage). I think we can all agree on that, right? That’s the easy part. 

But are they AL Central-winning good? How about wild-card good? Or buyers-at-the-trade-deadline good? Honestly, after suffering through this seven-year playoff drought, at this point of the season most White Sox fans are probably just happy with so far, so good. 

As a way to look at what’s gone right in this first month, let’s take a look at players who have far exceeded expectations (and are destined to regress a bit at some point) and those who have gotten off to a slower start (and are destined to produce closer to career norms). And then we’ll try and figure out what that means for the playoff hopes on the South Side. 

Destined to cool down

SP Mat Latos: Latos’ 2015 season was mostly a disaster. He was traded to the Dodgers at the 2015 non-waiver deadline, then released in late September (with a 6.66 ERA for L.A.) and pitched twice for the Angels. The White Sox picked him up on a one-year, $3 million flyer in the offseason and he has a 0.74 ERA in his first four starts. Because of course. Obviously, Latos won’t keep up that level of production; his strikeout-to-walk numbers aren't great (13-to-7, yikes) and his FIP is a good-not-great 3.56. Still, remember he had a 3.34 ERA in his first 153 career MLB starts (2009-14) and he’s only 28 years old. If he’s a productive regular in the rotation all season, that would be a huge boost (and a massive bargain).

SP Jose Quintana: I’m not saying there will be a huge regression for the prime-of-his-career 27-year-old lefty. Quintana, who owned a 3.46 ERA and 3.45 FIP in 743 career innings heading into 2016, has been one of the more underrated starters in the AL the past couple seasons, largely because he’s played for White Sox teams that weren’t in the playoff conversation. But right now he’s at a 1.47 ERA and AL-best 1.81 FIP, and he’s yet to allow a home run. He’ll slow down a bit, but still expect him to finally get a bit of much-deserved recognition (including possibly his first All-Star nod). 

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The bullpen: These guys have been unbelievably good (well, before a bit of a meltdown Thursday in Baltimore; all numbers in this segment are before that loss). Chicago’s bullpen arms combined for a 1.32 ERA in their first 61 1/3 innings this season, and they allowed only 38 hits and 19 walks while striking out 55. The bullpen only allowed one home run all season (by contrast, the Reds’ bullpen has allowed 18 so far) before giving up a grand slam on Thursday. That won’t last.

Look at the contrast between career ERAs (as relievers heading into the season) and what they’ve done so far this season: David Robertson (career 2.90 ERA, 0.87 in 2016), Matt Albers (3.71 to 0.00), Nate Jones (3.52 to 0.84), Jake Petrika (3.24 to 1.35), Dan Jennings (2.99 to 1.42), Zach Duke (3.32 to 2.25) and Zach Putnam (3.57 to 3.12). I’m not saying the bullpen will collapse, of course, but at some point it will cease to become impenetrable, and that’s going to cost the team some wins. 

Destined to improve

1B Jose Abreu: In his first two years in the majors (his Age 27 and Age 28 seasons), Abreu produced a .304/.364/.540 slash line (.904 OPS), with an average of 33 homers and 104 RBIs in 150 games. Through the first 24 games of this season, he’s batting .207 with three homers and a .635 OPS. He’s striking out a touch more (21.0 percent of PAs the first two seasons, 22.9 this year) but the big different is his batting average on balls in play. His first two years, his BABIP was .344. This year? .238. Yeah. The numbers show he’s not making as much hard contact (via FanGraphs, it’s down from 34.2 percent of his contact rated as “hard” in 2016 to just 24.2 percent this year) and he’s hitting far fewer line drives (20.7 percent last year; 13.6 percent this year). Still, it’s only 23 games into a season for a slugger with an outstanding track record, and there’s every reason to believe he’ll be just fine. 

3B Todd Frazier: He’s already started his upswing. Acquired in an offseason trade with the Reds, Frazier — who hit a total of 64 homers the past two seasons with Cincinnati — was batting just .154 with a .508 OPS through his first baker’s dozen games in a White Sox uniform. Since then, he’s hitting .351 with four homers and nine RBIs in 10 games and has brought his season average to .236. He’ll be just fine. 

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Designated hitter production: The White Sox would love nothing more than for Avisail Garcia to finally become the hitter everyone expects he can become. But he missed four months of the 2014 season after surgery to repair a torn labrum, and then when he was healthy in 2015, he posted a rather disappointing .675 OPS in 148 games. After a big spring (.383 average, five homers), he struggled again early this season, which even prompted talk of a possible demotion to Triple-A to get himself straightened out. All this to say that, so far, the White Sox DHs (primarily Garcia, who still doesn't even turn 25 until June) have produced just a .213 batting average and 11 RBIs this season. That will improve over the course of the season, whether it’s Garcia finally finding his swing (he is 7-for-14 in his past four games) or Jerry Sands seizing the opportunity or the team making a trade to find a big bat. 

Outlook

This can be a really good team, and a lot of that optimism is based on the top of the rotation.

Chris Sale is an elite starter, the kind of ace who could become an October hero, and Quintana is for real. Carlos Rodon, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2014 MLB Draft, can be a top-notch starter if he finally starts to cut down on his walks and Latos can absolutely be a positive in the fourth spot in the rotation. It's starting to look like they might have to find a replacement for veteran John Danks, who was hit hard again Thursday in Baltimore (six runs on nine hits in five innings) and now has a 4.79 ERA in 124 starts since 2011 (and a 7.25 ERA this season); that’s just not good enough for a contending team.

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The offense probably will never be elite, but it’s certainly good enough to support a playoff run with that rotation. There are issues to address (fifth starter, bullpen help, possible DH upgrade) but GM Rick Hahn hasn’t exactly been timid in his time in that job. If they’re still in the playoff conversation in June (hint: they will be), he won’t wait until a few days before the trade deadline to make an aggressive move or two. 

The reigning World Series champion Royals are still the team to beat in the AL Central, but it’s time to believe in these White Sox as a legitimate playoff contender. 

Ryan Fagan

Ryan Fagan Photo

Ryan Fagan, the national MLB writer for The Sporting News, has been a Baseball Hall of Fame voter since 2016. He also dabbles in college hoops and other sports. And, yeah, he has way too many junk wax baseball cards.