The Yankees are on the brink of moving on to the American League Championship Series for the second time in three years after taking down the Twins 8-2 in Game 2 in the ALDS on Saturday.
New York leads the series 2-0 as we head to Minnesota for Game 3. Jake Odorizzi was passed over for the start in Game 2 on Saturday by the Twins but he will likely toe the rubber in Game 3 on Monday.
The Yankees will likely counter with Luis Severino.
But before we get to that we take a look at Game 2 and what it told us about not only the 2019 playoffs but also the current state of one hitter, a trend with a pitcher and how numbers can often mislead us.
What we learned from Yankees' ALDS Game 2 win over Twins
Masahiro Tanaka's regular seasons don't matter
It seems like every year there is panic about Masahiro Tanaka and his lulls during the regular season, but we're here to tell you — who cares what he does in the regular season.
Sometimes some pitches just show up when the lights are brightest. For example, Brandon Backe had a career 5.23 ERA with the Rays and Astros over eight seasons. But in the postseason he had a 2.95 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP. He showed up when he needed to.
Tanaka has struggled over the last few years as he is constantly managing his iffy elbow. He gave up six runs in 2/3 inning against the Red Sox in London. Panic ensued and it continued when he finished the year with a 4.45 ERA. But Tanaka always shows up in the postseason. Always.
He threw five innings and allowed one run in Game 2 against one of this year's best and most clutch lineups — Minnesota was second in MLB with a .292 batting average with runners in scoring position. Tanaka now has a 1.54 ERA in 35 career postseason innings.
Matchups don't always pan out
The Twins played purely a matchup in Game 2 by starting rookie Randy Dobnak over Jake Odorizzi. The rookie came into the game with a 53% groundball rate, which would have been fifth in MLB had he pitched enough innings to qualify. Odorizzi had a 35% groundball rate, which was the third-worst in all of baseball.
Minnesota wanted to avoid the fly ball at Yankee Stadium, so it started Dobnak. Well, he did avoid the fly ball, but he also gave up six hits and four runs in two innings of work. He kept the ball in the yard, but he also aided New York in jumping out to an 8-1 lead in three innings.
Dobnak was the better matchup in Yankee Stadium than Odorizzi was on paper. But that is why baseball isn't played on paper. Pitching Odorizzi was the right decision due to his age and experience. Throwing in a rookie to pitch in the Bronx is not a good idea. As much as modern-day analytics say clutch doesn't matter, psychology entirely disagrees.
The rookie struggled a big part had to be nerves. Odorizzi should have been the play here, but the Twins stuck too close to the paper.
Did Didi Gregorius bust through his slump or was this an anomaly?
Didi Gregorius showed up in Game 2. He went 2 for 3, but most importantly, he smacked a grand slam in the third inning to bust the game wide open.
GRAND SLAM AND A CURTAIN CALL FOR DIDI GREGORIUS! THAT'S MY POSTSEASON STARTING SHORTSTOP! pic.twitter.com/uHNwOzrWcp
— Kyle ⚾️ (@KyleNYY) October 5, 2019
Gregorius came into this game mired in a 2-for-25 slump. He hadn't hit a home run since Sept. 10 and finished the year with a .238/.276/.441 slash line. His numbers weren't great this season and they have been especially bad as of late.
So is Gregorius out of his slump or was he simply put in favorable spots to succeed? The former is possible, but look at the position he was put in and how they played into his game Saturday (in ascending level of importance):
- He hits better against righties (.246)
- He hits better in wins (.264)
- He hits fly-ball pitchers like Tyler Duffey the best (.274/111 OPS+)
- He hits well against finesse pitchers like Dobnak (.280/112 OPS+)
- He hits well with runners in scoring position (.308)
- He hits pitchers the first time well (.347)
- He hits well with the bases loaded (.400/290 OPS+)
That's a lot of things that went in his favor in Game 2. Could his slump be broken? Absolutely. But man he was put in some good spots on Saturday.