It was a long road back for Los Angeles Dodgers starter Walker Buehler. A second Tommy John surgery in August of 2022 saw a lengthy rehab that prevented Buehler from appearing at all in 2023, making his first start back on May 6th.
The first two starts indicated the type of rust you'd expect to see from a guy out for almost two years. He threw 7.1 innings between the two starts, allowing a combined 11 hits, six strikeouts against a pair of walks, and six earned runs. The Dodgers won the first one against the lowly Miami Marlins before dropping the second to division rival San Diego.
Buehler's third start back, however, was much more indicative of the type of pitcher we remember. He threw six innings against the Cincinnati Reds, striking out seven and scattering three hits. He didn't walk a batter or allow a run. Perhaps most importantly, his Zone% sat at 48.7, indicating that he had much better command of all of his pitches. He had only been at 37.7 and 40.3 in each of the two previous starts, respectively.
And that was really the thing about the third start: command. Not solely being able to locate in order to garner strikeouts, mind you; Buehler's game isn't based around a prioritization of the K. Generating whiffs is certainly a facet, but Buehler's skill set is more predicated around preventing quality contact on the part of opposing hitters. He was able to do that against Cincinnati, as the Reds only managed a single hard-hit ball. Buehler had allowed 10 combined in his two previous starts.
Having all four pitches working absolutely helped Buehler in that regard. He had a decent distribution across the four-seam, knuckle curve, cutter, and sinker, while using the breaking pitch to generate whiffs. It was exactly the kind of outing we've come to expect, even if it took a couple of starts for him to get there.
That leaves Buehler with a 4.05 ERA in four starts, a 22.8 K% & a BB% of just 3.5. The HardHit% is coming down, which should help to aid the only blemish on his stat line, the HR/FB rate (25.0).
Ultimately, the start was a crucial step for Buehler and one that strengthens the Dodgers' rotation even further. The team already sits top five among starting pitchers in ERA (3.24) & top 10 in K% (23.4 percent). Where they've struggled a bit is in the walk game, where their 14th-ranked 7.8 BB% sits decidedly middle tier. Buehler's command should help bolster that figure.
But perhaps the most essential aspect in all of this for Walker Buehler specifically is in the timing. He's set to become a free agent at the end of this year. It's a free agent class that includes Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Max Fried, and a resurgent Jack Flaherty among pitchers without any kind of option. Where continued starts of 'just okay' might've earned Buehler fewer looks at a multi-year pact, he has the opportunity to catapult him to the largest contract among pitchers this winter (at least this side of Corbin Burnes).
At this rate, he's likely the second-ranked arm among that group. If this was a pitcher with a bit less of a track record than Buehler, then maybe the confidence isn't there that the third start is indicative of longer-term output. But this is a pitcher with a clear identity in an organization with outstanding technical infrastructure in matters of pitching. One has to imagine the return to form against Cincinnati is for real, with massive dividends on the horizon for the pitcher himself.