Now that the smoke has cleared from a busy MLB trade deadline, it's time to assess the true winners and losers and pinpoint the best futures bets following the biggest moves. Which recently acquired players have the best chance of helping their new clubs go all the way? Which moves were just bandage deals for squads that needed legit stitches?
Our job is to scour the World Series and pennant odds and highlight the best bets and highest-value wagers following the recent movement. Just like GMs worked the phones voraciously leading up to Tuesday's deadline, we're working the odds boards on BetMGM and other major sportsbooks with one common goal: To find winners.
The current MLB landscape has plenty of winners but not necessarily a plethora of contenders. A whopping 19 teams sit above .500, and 20 clubs either currently hold a postseason position or sit within four games of an AL or NL wild-card spot. Whether this newfound parity developed because of the new rules or the youth movement, we're not quite sure, but it's a big reason why there were much more deadline buyers than usual.
The good clubs made deals to get better, while the very good squads made moves in hopes of rising from contenders in August to champions three months from now. Today, we will review the teams that benefited the most from the deadline and make our best futures bets for the World Series and pennant races.
Post-trade deadline best bet to win the ALCS
Houston Astros (+325)
As usual, the rich got richer at the trade deadline. The reigning champs not only got slugger and MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez and former MVP Jose Altuve back from the IL recently, but they also got former MVP, two-time World Series champ, and three-time Cy Young winner Justin Verlander back for outfield prospects Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford.
For the long-term, Astros fans probably aren't thrilled to deal Gilbert, MLB's No. 68 prospect and a legitimate power-speed threat at just 22, for a 40-year-old pitcher. However, for the short-term, the move to reacquire Verlander almost assuredly puts Houston in position to surge to the top of the AL over the next two months and get back to the Fall Classic.
The bones were already good for the 'Stros. Thanks in large part to the continued excellence of right fielder Kyle Tucker, Houston sits among the top 10 in most hitting categories despite the somewhat-lengthy absences of multiple difference-makers. Dusty Baker's squad also flaunts the second-best team ERA (3.77) and fifth-most strikeouts (977) in the majors, and that's before the addition of its 2017 ALCS MVP.
Framber Valdez just pitched a no-hitter the day Houston traded for JV. Rookie pitcher J.P. France hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a start since May 29. Flamethrower Cristian Javier is 7-2. Now the Astros get a two-time ERA champ and one-time winner of the triple crown of pitching? It's almost not fair. These odds, though, are quite fair, and we can't imagine a better ALCS bet than Houston at +325.
MORE ASTROS: Is Framber Valdez worthy of all the Cy Young betting action?
Post-trade deadline ALCS fades
Texas Rangers (+425)
While we applaud the effort Texas GM Chris Young put into the Rangers' trade deadline, acquiring three-time Cy Young winner and 2019 World Series champion Max Scherzer, as well as Cardinals starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery, but we just can't view this squad in the same light as the Astros.
For one, the rotation and bullpen pales in comparison to Houston's before and after the trades to acquire Scherzer, Montgomery, and even flamethrowing reliever Aroldis Chapman earlier in the season. Texas has a 4.16 team ERA, which ranks in the bottom half of the bigs, and a 4.77 bullpen ERA (just Oakland, Washington, Kansas City, and Colorado have worse bullpen ERAs).
Then you have to take into consideration that the Rangers have been dealing with injury issues surrounding All-Star catcher Jonah Heim (sprained wrist), MVP candidate shortstop Corey Seager (sprained thumb), and AL Cy Young candidate Nathan Eovaldi (strained forearm). That's half of this team's All-Stars and a major red flag to anyone contemplating Texas as a potential futures value.
Scherzer is a shell of his former dominant self. Don't look at his 9-3 record — look at his decreased velocity and whiff rates and increased ratios (4.01 ERA, 1.19 WHIP). He's getting hit harder than he ever has in the Statcast era (88.5 MPH average exit velo, 38.3-percent hard-hit rate) and missing the fewest bats (27.3-percent K rate, 28.1-percent whiff rate). So, Rangers fans, temper your expectations if you think Young brought in the modern-day Nolan Ryan.
Montgomery is also an underwhelming acquisition. The Cubbies just scored 10 runs in 12 innings on this guy's watch over his past two outings, and now we're supposed to treat him as a No. 3 on a World Series contender? His WHIP is 1.25, his strikeout rate is barely above 20 percent, and his hard-hit numbers look eerily similar to Scherzer's.
This pitching staff didn't add any great arms — it added an over-the-hill big name (Max) and a third starter who wouldn't crack most contenders' playoff rotations. The worst part is, Texas didn't address its need for improvement at backup catcher (which right now means starting catcher, with Heim on the shelf) and the bullpen.
If this team was serious about making the World Series, it would have gone all-in for Josh Hader or Jordan Hicks and went after a veteran backstop like Salvador Perez. But Young is clearly not as good a GM as Bruce Bochy is a manager, and the Rangers will have to settle for "solid first-half story." They're 4-7 in their past 11 games, they're 26-26 on the road, and they'll be lucky to even make the ALCS in October with Tampa and Houston in their way.
A bet worth making: Astros (-115) to win the AL West over the Rangers (+105)
Post-trade deadline best bets to win the World Series
Atlanta Braves (+325)
Look, for us, the song remains the same — this Atlanta team isn't just the best in the majors, it's one of the five best teams we've seen in the 21st century. The Braves have it all: Coaching, experience, power, speed, pitching, defense, you name it.
Ronald Acuña Jr. is running away with MVP (literally), and Spencer Strider has led a consistently awesome rotation. Matt Olson leads the NL in homers and RBIs. Austin Riley has been one of the hottest hitters in the world this summer. Atlanta enjoys production from every spot in its lineup and has the bullpen depth needed to make a run at the title.
There are no blemishes, therefore they didn't need to make any big deadline splashes. They expect Max Fried back by the end of the summer, so they didn't feel obligated to waste assets to grab a starting pitcher. Instead, they added speed and defense with infielder Nicky Lopez and some additional bullpen help with Pierce Johnson and Brad Hand.
Atlanta has dominated headlines all year. It didn't need to one-up any clubs at the deadline. In our opinion, it will own the only headline that really matters: "Braves win the 2023 World Series."
Los Angeles Dodgers (+500)
While we don't think any team will get the best of the Braves this postseason, the only club that truly has a chance of slowing them down in the NL is the Dodgers. So, if you want better value than Atlanta at +325 — or, if you want to put $100 on Atlanta and $75 on Los Angeles as a pre-hedge insurance plan — we can't blame you.
Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts have been sizzling hot for this squad, and J.D. Martinez, Will Smith, and Max Muncy have been plenty solid as well. L.A. also added some righthanded hitting, defense, starting pitching, and bullpen help around the deadline, all of which had become needs for the 2020 champs.
Lance Lynn has already posted a strong start in Dodger blue, and Joe Kelly and Kike Hernandez have both made their marks since returning to Dave Roberts' squad. Amed Rosario was also a crucial addition to a team that needed defensive help on the left side of its infield. If Clayton Kershaw returns soon and Julio Urias can return to the postseason form that we're used to seeing from him at this point, this Dodgers team will be right in the mix this fall.
Post-trade deadline divisional sleeper
Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central (+325)
Did I just rock your world? I must have. You probably think I just went on an ayahuasca journey with Aaron Rodgers or something, but hear me out! The Cubs were not sellers at the deadline like everyone, but yours truly seemed to think they would be (humble brag: check out my radio spot with The Gambler on iHeartRadio, where I said Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger would remain Cubs after the deadline). And here's why they didn't sell: They're legitimately convinced they can win this division!
Who can fault them for being optimistic? This club has rattled off eight wins in 10 games and they're three games behind the suddenly underwhelming Reds and just a half-game behind the reeling Brewers (who have lost seven of their past 10 contests). The Cubs just responded to none of their guys getting dealt by scoring 36 RUNS in two games (that seemed worthy of all caps, don't ya think?).
The members of this squad genuinely like playing with one another. They have strong chemistry, a can-do attitude, and a why-not-us demeanor that's been fun to root for along the way. Justin Steele is a bona fide Cy Young contender. Stroman just made the All-Star Game. Young infielder Nico Hoerner has been a revelation. So, while we wouldn't bet the farm on David Ross's squad going the distance, we might put $24 down and hope it turns into $102 in a couple of months. Win or lose, it will certainly be a fun ride.
