Let's not kid ourselves; the MLB season is young. Very young. A lot of what we are seeing right now may not stick in the long-term, especially because we still have close to five months of baseball left to play in the regular season.
Even last season, Christian Yelich was on the periphery of the MVP race in the first half before exploding in the final months to run away with the award. Jake Arrieta posted a 2.66 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in the first half of 2015 and then had one of the best second halves of all-time (0.75 ERA, 0.73 WHIP) en route to a Cy Young. While it certainly helps, early season output isn't always indicative of who will come away with awards.
It's common for people to bet on certain players to win awards when odds are released. But now that we have a roughly 35-game sample size to go off, it's worth revisiting who it makes sense to take a closer look at. Here are three players in the MVP and Cy Young race worth the investment at this time.
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(Odds and stats as of May 5. All odds via PointsBet)
AL MVP
Mike Trout (+105)
It's not the sexy pick, but Trout could very easily be the right pick. He has the best odds to win, which makes sense when you consider he is the best player in MLB. He's also the most likely player to continue his early season production throughout the rest of his campaign. The 2019 numbers are gaudy. He has only homered twice since April 7, but has an absurd 30 walks to just 14 strikeouts and leads the AL in OBP (.477) and WAR (2.6).
Besides his injury-shortened 2017 season, Trout has finished in the top two of the MVP voting every year since 2012. Although his odds of winning are already pretty good, sometimes you have to go the safe route, making Trout the perfect fit.
Matt Chapman (+1400)
Chapman had a strong offensive season last year that was overshadowed by his defensive mastery. It's more of the same from the A's third baseman this year, but he looks even stronger at the plate. Chapman is hitting .306 in 124 at-bats this season, and over half of his hits have gone for extra bases.
There aren't many better defensive players in the game than Chapman. His 3.5 dWAR was the best in the American League last season and resulted in him winning the platinum glove. If he can get his offense to match his defense — which he has done so far in 2019 — Chapman has outstanding value.
J.D. Martinez (+1600)
Although Mookie Betts is the reigning AL MVP, Martinez might be the best candidate on the Red Sox to this point. It's a positive sign for him that he's been getting on base, but his power isn't developing as quick as past seasons, which has slightly hurt his odds. If he's able to touch 40 home runs and a 1.000 OPS like the past two seasons, he should be right in the thick of things.
The argument will persist whether a designated hitter deserves to win MVP, but Martinez looks poised to once again post strong enough offensive numbers to make the case against him weak.
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NL MVP
Christian Yelich (+275)
Yelich was practically inducted into MLB lore with his earth-shattering second half last season, and he's picked up right where he left off to start 2019. His small-sample-size OPS sits at 1.252 and he is tied for the league lead in home runs at 15. With the way his first half is going, he doesn't even need to have the same production in the final months that he had in 2018, although that certainly wouldn't hurt.
Cody Bellinger (+250) is currently the only player with better NL MVP odds, but his other-worldly numbers (.415/.489/.847) are likely not sustainable.
Javier Baez (+900)
The runner-up in 2018, Baez has continued his magic ways in 2019, with his 1.5 oWAR and 1.0 dWAR standing out as the most eye-popping numbers. He is also in the top five in the NL in slugging (.659), home runs (11) and hits (41). Baez's prowess on both sides of the ball should keep him in the conversation for the long haul.
His ability to play multiple positions at a high level also helps his value. He has only played shortstop in 2019 but spent 104 games at second base last season, and it's possible he will go there at some point this season. It's tough to gauge just how much stock voters will put into that, but the defense gives Baez a leg up that can make your early bet pay off.
Rhys Hoskins (+2000)
He's much more of a longshot than Yelich and Baez at this point, but if the Phillies stay atop the NL East, the buzz will only grow around Hoskins. He's in the shadow of Bryce Harper in Philadelphia, but Hoskins is off to a better start and is one of just five NL players with an OPS over 1.000. Plus, there is Hoskins' power, which has resulted 10 home runs up to this point. Anything close to the production from his last four months of 2018 — when he hit 30 homers — will be a positive sign.
It may just be early-season hype for the first baseman, but his hot start is worth monitoring, and it woudn't be a bad idea to completely buy-in to what he's done.
AL Cy Young
Trevor Bauer (+350)
Chris Sale's early-season struggles mean there is no clear cut favorite for Cy Young thus far, but Bauer has the best odds of any pitcher. He rose from a middle-of-the-rotation type to an ace in 2018 and hasn't missed a beat in his seven starts this season. Bauer has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his seven starts and has struck out seven-plus hitters in six of those games. He looks like the safest option up to this point.
Jose Berrios (+900)
Berrios has been on the verge of a breakout for the past few seasons and he's flirting with finally achieving that through the first month-plus of 2019. He is in the top 10 in the AL in ERA (2.91) and the top five in WHIP (0.97) and BB9 (1.6). Berrios has the stuff to be one of the best in MLB. It wouldn't be particuarly surprising if he keeps it up throughout the duration of the season.
Marcus Stroman (+2000)
The Cy Young doesn't rely on team success as much as the MVP, so don't shy away from Stroman just because the Blue Jays aren't producing in the win column. Stroman hasn't allowed a home run in 41 innings, which is unsustainable, and has the second-lowest ERA in the AL. Those +2000 odds are tantalizing, but he's below 11 others likely due to a down 2018 season, which seems to be more of an aberration than anything else. If he can stay healthy and come close to replicating his early success, you have to like his chances.
NL Cy Young
Jacob deGrom (+350)
It hasn't been the start to the season for deGrom that many envisioned, but that should only be a minor roadblock in the Cy Young picture. He's still shown signs of his 2018 form, as he hasn't allowed an earned run in three of his starts, but it's going to be tough for him to replicate last season's numbers. That doesn't mean you shouldn't throw your money his way though. deGrom may be the best pitcher in the National League, and no early standout means he has time to completely figure it out.
German Marquez (+1200)
Marquez has gone from a sleeper Cy Young candidate before the season to one of the favorites for the award in a short time. He hasn't matched his 10.6 K/9 from 2018, but he's had a very steady start to the season and possesses stuff that has allowed him to flirt with a no-hitter on multiple occassions. If deGrom and Max Scherzer don't start looking like their old selves, the race could open up and someone like Marquez could emerge.
Zack Greinke (+2500)
The odds aren't in Greinke's favor right now. He is behind 11 others right now, but is another NL pitcher that's off to an encouraging start. It seems like it could stick too, based off his track record and that other than his first start of the season, he hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any game. Of anyone with odds of +2000 or lower, Greinke seems like the obvious pick at this point of the season.