There's no denying the most dominant team through the first two weeks of the MLB season is the Tampa Bay Rays. Somehow, someway, a franchise with the 28th-highest payroll is riding a four-year postseason appearance streak that's already trending toward extending to five just 10 games into the 2023 season.
Following Monday night's narrow 1-0 win over the Red Sox, Tampa now owns MLB's longest season-opening winning streak in the wild-card era. Additionally, the Rays boast the fifth-best run differential through the first 10 games of the season (+58), and although they haven't played a team with a projected regular-season win total north of 78 games, they didn't just skate by the Tigers, Nationals, and Athletics, they pummeled them.
How has the futures market responded to Tampa Bay's historic start? Let's break down their updated futures odds via BetMGM and discuss whether or not bettors should dish out a portion of their bankroll to back Kevin Cash's crew to keep their momentum rolling.
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AL East Division Futures: Opening Odds
| Team | Division Odds |
| New York Yankees | +100 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | +220 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | +350 |
| Boston Red Sox | +1600 |
| Baltimore Orioles | +2500 |
In what's been an uber-competitive AL East over the past handful of seasons, Tampa Bay was initially pegged to finish third behind the reigning AL East champion Yankees and the up-and-coming Blue Jays.
Given much of the same core that ended last season ranking just one percent above league-average in wRC+ (101 wRC+) and got bounced in two games by a similarly constructed Guardians' bunch in the wild-card round returned, it made sense that the betting market wasn't overly high of Tampa entering 2023.
A team built on its run-prevention posted the fourth-best team ERA in the regular season (3.41), but when push came to shove, scoring a total of one run over 23.5 innings of playoff baseball wasn't sufficient enough to get the job done in October.
A +350 price tag that essentially gave the Rays a 22.22-percent chance to win the AL East entering the season was justified, but that 3.5-1 price tag is long gone after steamrolling their first three opponents.
AL East Division Futures: Updated Odds 4/11
| Team | Division Odds |
| Tampa Bay Rays | +130 |
| New York Yankees | +160 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | +300 |
| Boston Red Sox | +2500 |
| Baltimore Orioles | +3000 |
Fast forward to April 11, and the undefeated Rays sit as the betting favorite to win the AL East at +130. A move from +350 to +130 has boosted their division odds by 21.26 percent for a team currently holding a four-game lead over the Yankees and Blue Jays.
Their 10-0 start is worthy of all the hype, especially since Tampa leads the majors in myriad stat categories. On the offensive side, the Rays most notably sit atop MLB in weighted runs created plus (164 wRC+), weighted on-base average (.397 wOBA), and isolated power (.285 ISO). Their pitching staff has compiled the best HR-to-FB rate (5.1 percent) and the lowest fielding independent pitching metric (2.83 FIP).
That being said, Tampa was relatively fortunate to improve to 10-0 in the early season on Monday, needing a go-ahead solo shot from second baseman Brandon Lowe in the bottom of the eighth after lefthander Colin Poche punched out Boston's Rafael Devers with two outs and the bases loaded in the top half of the inning. Boston starter Nick Pivetta did his part in ending the Rays' winning streak, completing five shutout innings, but his offense couldn't do much of anything against Tampa's cast of arms.
Speaking of yesterday's contest, Tampa's pre-game moneyline price was the shortest it's been all season, closing at -158 (implied win probability: 61.24 percent). Streamrolling through their first three series against the Tigers, Nationals, and Athletics is undoubtedly worthy of a hat tip, but Tampa's been favored in every game this season, closing north of two-dollar favorites six times.
The Rays have routinely sat as one of the heftiest moneyline favorites each day of the season, and while they still have to go out and take care of business, their torrid start hasn't been overly surprising. We'll see how they fare in this weekend's three-game set in Toronto in games they'll likely close as underdogs or pick 'ems in (110 odds on both sides).
Tampa Bay Rays World Series Odds
| Opening Odds | Updated Odds: 4/11 |
| +2200 | +1200 |
After opening with +2200 odds to win its first World Series in franchise history, Tampa's odds have surged up to +1200, as it's been the biggest riser among American League teams. While there's a good chance the Rays end up earning a playoff spot, whether it's via winning the AL East or claiming one of three AL wild-card spots, their offense needs to remain consistent enough to manufacture runs in October.
Making the playoffs is one thing, but putting it all together and winning multiple series against the best teams in baseball is another. Given their 10-0 record, the move from 22-1 to 12-1 is justifiable, but it's not enticing enough to lay your cold hard cash on.
Betting advice: Not to rain on the Rays' parade, but Tampa's still a ways away from hosting a parade of their own in downtown St. Petersburg. We respect Tampa for the way it's started the season, but we're only six percent of the way into the regular season. Therefore, we aren't intrigued enough to bet them to win the AL East at +130 nor win the World Series at 12-1. We might reconsider things in a month or two, but for the time being, we're not hopping on the hype train.
