No baseball will be safe at the former Safeco Field.
Predicting the winner of the Home Run Derby has been an exercise in futility for years. Consider this: Robinson Cano took home the 2011 Home Run Derby trophy with 32 total home runs. The following year, Cano had an opportunity to defend his crown — and he hit a grand total of zero.
Part of the uncertainty of the Home Run Derby is that every year is unique, and every year is unique thanks to the ballpark. With no parallel design (or climate or environment) between ballparks, the Home Run Derby is truly something of a crapshoot. The only constant is pure power.
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This year, plenty of hitters with that light-tower power may make T-Mobile Field look like a little league park. Still, it won't be easy in one of baseball's less friendly parks for hitters.
Here's what the hitters will have to deal with when they line up to mash on Monday night:
T-Mobile Park dimensions
T-Mobile Park is a notoriously pitcher-friendly ballpark. Traditionally, fly balls don't tend to carry as well in Seattle as they do in other MLB cities. While that may not manifest itself in the Home Run Derby, the dimensions are still unfriendly for hitters who want to reach the seats.
Here's how T-Mobile Park measures from foul pole to foul pole:
| Field | Distance (Feet) |
| Left | 331 |
| Left center | 378 |
| Center | 401 |
| Right center | 381 |
| Right | 326 |
T-Mobile Park has registered a slightly below-average 98 park factor for home runs since the start of the 2021 season, according to Baseball Savant. While that's a context-free number, it's far lower than Great American Ball Park (first, 133) or Dodger Stadium (second, 123) in terms of bandbox reputation.
The last time the Home Run Derby took place in Seattle, it was conducted under a much different format. In 2001, under a 10-out format, 66 total home runs were hit by eight competitors and Luis Gonzalez won the final over Sammy Sosa six home runs to two.
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Home Run Derby participants
Here's the field for the 2023 Home Run Derby, with the players' season home run totals and expected home run totals if their fly balls were all hit at T-Mobile Park (all statistics through July 9; expected home run totals per Baseball Savant):
— Adley Rutschman, Orioles, 12 home runs — The switch-hitting Rutschman has 12 long balls on the year, but 13 of his fly balls would be home runs at T-Mobile Park. All but three of Rutschman's home runs have come from the lefty batter's box, and six of them have been to straightaway right field. Expect some pull power from Crushman.
— Pete Alonso, Mets, 26 home runs — Polar Bear Power is legit. Alonso has big-time power that's ballpark agnostic. Of his 26 home runs in 2023, 25 of them would be out at T-Mobile Park. The majority of Alonso's home runs have been hit to left-center field, and he has a 38 percent "no doubter" rate in 2023. That'll play as he seeks his third Home Run Derby crown.
— Randy Arozarena, Rays, 16 home runs — Arozarena is making his debut in the Home Run Derby and is on pace to have his best season in the majors. He is set to blow past his career-high home run mark of 20. Arozarena showcases prodigious pull power; three of his four straightaway left field home runs have traveled over 400 feet, which could play well in Seattle.
— Mookie Betts, Dodgers, 26 home runs — Betts won't hit anything opposite field, so don't worry about the right field seats if you're heading to Seattle. He doesn't have a single home run in 2023 right of center field, and only a handful throughout his career. He may benefit from Seattle's confines, though: He has 26 dingers on the season, but he would have 27 home runs at T-Mobile Park this year.
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— Adolis Garcia, Rangers, 23 home runs — Garcia would feast even more if he hit in Seattle. Baseball Savant has him down for 29 expected home runs in T-Mobile Park. His longest long ball so far this year traveled an estimated 432 feet. His 4-5 matchup vs. Arozarena in the first round could be wild.
— Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays, 13 home runs — Guerrero is sure to put on a show, as he is wont to do. He's sixth among qualified hitters in average exit velocity in 2023 despite his relatively low home run total. He's another slugger who could benefit from T-Mobile — he'd have three more home runs in Seattle.
— Julio Rodriguez, Mariners, 13 home runs — The hometown favorite made a thunderous Home Run Derby debut in 2022, reaching the final before an eventual loss to Juan Soto. J-Rod hit 81 home runs in the 2022 Derby, potentially a preview of what he may do in his home ballpark this year.
— Luis Robert, White Sox, 26 home runs — Robert has 29 expected home runs at T-Mobile according to Baseball Savant, meaning he may have the edge over any of the other competitors in the field. Robert sits in second in the AL in home runs amid a breakout offensive season. He may be the pick for Monday's event.
