'Cooperstown Chances' examines the Baseball Hall of Fame case of one candidate each week. This week: Steve Garvey.
Who he is: It seemed like a sure thing in the late 1980s that Steve Garvey would eventually be in the Hall of Fame. A Sporting News poll of managers in 1986 named the longtime Dodgers and Padres first baseman as one of 20 players who’d already done enough for induction. Sixteen of these players are now enshrined. Garvey peaked in 1995 at 42.6 percent of the writers’ vote for Cooperstown, short of the necessary 75 percent. But that’s news to some people, Garvey told Sporting News.
“I do a lot of motivational speaking, and they even introduce me as Hall of Famer. I kind of look,” Garvey said with a laugh. ”I’m a little shaken. You don’t want to correct them right there. I say, ‘Thank you and still hopeful and got longer on the ballot this next time.’ But there’s a general perception that I’m in the Hall of Fame, which is very interesting.”
Garvey’s a polarizing candidate. To a traditionalist, Garvey has a solid case. For the years he played, 1969 to 1987, only Pete Rose had more seasons with 200 hits, which Garvey got like clockwork. There’s Garvey’s 1,207 game streak between 1975 and 1983, his .338 batting average in the postseason, his 10 All-Star selections and his 1974 National League MVP Award. There’s his All American image, which took a hit in retirement, but that many fans still remember. End of day, Garvey was a key member of some superb Dodger teams. He’d have a plaque many fans would care to see and probably wouldn’t look out of place giving his induction speech.
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“It’s been a wonderful career and life,” Garvey told Sporting News. “I’ve been able to take that visibility and do a lot of positive things. The Hall of Fame is always there. I get asked about it frequently.”
By sabermetrics, Garvey falls short of Cooperstown. For the years he played, Garvey’s 6.6 Wins Above Average rate 138th best. He isn’t a Hall of Famer by JAWS or Hall Rating. Garvey suffers in part because of his .329 on-base percentage and rapid decline after leaving the Dodgers. Among first basemen from Garvey’s era who aren’t enshrined, Keith Hernandez has the most Wins Above Average at 31.6, though he barely got 10 percent of the writers vote. Bobby Grich has the most Wins Above Average of any position player not in the Hall of Fame during Garvey’s career, by a wide margin. Grich got 2.6 percent of the vote.
Garvey remains a popular candidate, though. He became eligible for Cooperstown through the Expansion Era Committee for the 2014 election and was one of six players on the ballot that year. He could figure on the Expansion Era ballot again in December and is optimistic about his Hall of Fame chances in general.
“I think there’s a reason why I’ve been on the ballot,” Garvey said. “Hopefully the voters will see that and give me the greatest honor of my career and put me in the Hall of Fame.”
Cooperstown chances: 50 percent
Why: Hall of Fame committees typically consist of older players, writers, executives, and historians. While I know from having had a lengthy discussion recently with a past Expansion Era Committee member that the group looks at Baseball-Reference.com in making its decisions, it doesn’t drill down too far into sabermetrics. Garvey’s JAWS, Hall Rating, and Wins Above Average marks are all stats that I highly doubt will come up the next time he’s on the Expansion Era ballot.
From what I’m told, the committee looks at similarity scores and the Hall of Fame statistics listed on any player’s Baseball-Reference.com page. Those stats don’t account for era, and in my time writing this column, I’ve yet to factor them in my analysis. But they get a lot of attention because they have a prominent spot on the world’s best baseball website. Garvey’s listed as being most similar to Garret Anderson and Al Oliver, two players who were each one-and-done on the writers’ ballot. Those players have their Hall of Fame supporters, but they don’t make Garvey look like a slam dunk when the committee convenes months from now.
It’ll be interesting as well to see what Jack Morris’s new eligibility with the Expansion Era Committee does for Garvey’s chances. Morris peaked at 67.7 percent of the writers’ vote and is a similar candidate to Garvey. He’s underwhelming sabermetrically, but he has an iconic image and did well in the postseason. Older players love him. I suspect if Morris isn’t voted in this Fall, he’ll get the most votes of any player on the ballot.
Garvey wouldn’t mind seeing several more players get in the Hall of Fame, though.
“There are probably six or seven other gentleman who are in a similar position as myself,” Garvey said. “I think it would be good for the game. If you look at basketball and football, they enter four, five players every year, and they’re all worthy of it. They’re all relative to their time and their game and the success of their team.”
Asked to mention some players he thinks belongs in Cooperstown, Garvey named Dave Parker, Dale Murphy, Oliver, Tommy John and Jim Kaat, saying he could probably come up with more. I asked him about Dick Allen, who Garvey played with in 1971. ““Dick Allen was maybe the greatest straightaway hitter I’ve ever seen,” Garvey said. “He was so strong.” Garvey said he learned a lot from Allen, as well as fellow Dodger teammates Frank Robinson and Maury Wills. “That renaissance of base stealing that he initiated, he changed the game,” Garvey said of Wills. “He brought back the stolen base. He made it exciting.”
Garvey’s favorite player not in? Another Dodgers first baseman, Gil Hodges. Garvey cites Hodges’ numbers and how often his teams won. Garvey has another reason for supporting Hodges’ candidacy that might not be well-known to fans: He was a bat boy for the Dodgers in Tampa, Florida during spring training in 1956.
“We did a book called ‘My Bat Boy Days,’” Garvey said. “In the beginning, it talks about this first day of being around these world champion Brooklyn Dodgers and being a bat boy and being around Reese and Hodges and Robinson and Campanella and Furillo and these guys and falling in love with the game that day. Twelve years later out of Michigan State, I was drafted by them. I’ve had a wonderful life and career, but that was the early beginnings.”
'Cooperstown Chances' examines the Baseball Hall of Fame case of one candidate each week. Series author and Sporting News contributor Graham Womack writes regularly about the Hall of Fame and other topics related to baseball history at his website, Baseball: Past and Present . Follow him on Twitter: @grahamdude .