Shohei Ohtani is officially a free agent and allowed to sign with any team — that window opened five days after the World Series ended — but don’t expect a resolution to the most anticipated sweepstakes in MLB player-movement history anytime soon.
Because, y’know, it takes a lot of time for so many teams to woo the two-way superstar and global icon on why they’d love for him to play for their franchise for the next decade. There will be Ohtani noise at the GM meetings this week, of course, where his agent, Nez Balelo, will listen to front-office types make their opening pitches.
The rumor mill should be especially spicy this offseason. Big numbers will be thrown about on a weekly basis, then daily when we get closer to the Winter Meetings.
I am genuinely fascinated with where Ohtani winds up because here’s the truth: I would not be shocked if Ohtani shocks everyone with his decision. So many people are speculating about how he will chase every last dollar on the free-agent market and only two or three teams are legitimately in the mix, but I can’t help but feel after watching him his entire career that Ohtani isn’t driven by “normal” financial motivations. Maybe I’m naive, but I do believe money isn’t everything to Ohtani, that winning matters more.
Remember, back in 2017 he “cost” himself a ton of money by leaving Japan at 23 years old? Players under 25 were considered an “international amateur” under the CBA, which meant teams could only offer what was in their international bonus pool, and there was no open market where teams could offer however much money they wanted. There was no bidding war.
More than anything, Ohtani wanted to compete at the highest level. That was the top priority, much more than money, which is why he left at 23, not 25. And now he has money, not just from the Angels as a player but so many millions from sponsorships and other avenues. Why, all of a sudden, would he be driven primarily by chasing dollars? That makes no sense.
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What Shohei Ohtani wants in free agent contract
I’m willing to bet that 90 percent of Ohtani’s decision is based on picking a place where he feels like he can compete for World Series titles every single year, and 10 percent is making sure he becomes the highest paid player in MLB history. Because here’s another truth: Half the league would gladly give him a contract that would accomplish that monetary goal. Mike Trout currently holds that title, with his $426 million deal. Ohtani is an insanely competitive person, and it makes sense to me that he’d take, let’s say, $450 million from the Braves instead of $550 from the Yankees.
Now, obviously, there are a lot of teams who fit both molds, the willingness to spend and the opportunity to win. Being willing to spend helps position a team to win. Sometimes that philosophy works wonders — Exhibit A is the World Series champion Rangers — and sometimes it doesn’t go so well — hi, Padres and Mets! After so many years with his Angels club looking up at mediocrity, contrasted with the high of winning the WBC with Japan — his visceral reaction to striking out Trout for the final out is seared in my brain — I just can’t imagine any scenario where he signs somewhere without a bright future.
OHTANI STRIKES OUT TROUT TO WIN THE WBC FINAL 😲 #WorldBaseballClassic pic.twitter.com/5pudorQph8
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) March 22, 2023
And remember this: Part of the reason you’re seeing these eye-popping numbers bandied about regarding Ohtani’s contract is that he brings so much value to a franchise that’s not just about a team’s performance on the field. Sign Ohtani, and you suddenly have opened up revenue streams that didn’t exist in the “before” time. He’s marketable on a global scale, in a way no player — not even Ichiro — has ever been. Even if he somehow loses his mojo or spends a lot of time on the IL during the contract, any deal he signs will be a bargain by the time it expires. Literally every team in baseball would make money on his baseline of $400 million for the life of the contract.
Let’s take a look at the contenders. Spoiler: The Angels aren't included. He's not willingly choosing to relive his years of playoff-free baseball in Anaheim. He's not going to officially say that, of course, because, y'know, leverage. But if I was doing a ranking of all 30 teams and their chances of signing Ohtani, it would start like this ...
30. A's
29. Angels
Ok, now let's jump in. Fifteen potential destinations, ranked from most likely to least likely.
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Teams who could sign Shohei Ohtani
Dodgers
Can they afford a $400 million contract? Yes, of course.
Can they/would they win a bidding war? Yes, of course.
Are they positioned to compete for the next decade? Yes, of course. The Dodgers have built a machine, one that generates enough revenue to sign baseball’s biggest stars and one with the infrastructure and farm system to develop youngsters into stars. In a lot of ways, 2023 almost felt like a potential glitch in the system, what with a failure to land a marquee free agent last offseason and then so many injuries to key players during the season (and spring training). And the Dodgers still won 100 games. It really is a remarkable operation. Last year offered a peek at some of the arms on the way — Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone and Emmet Sheehan — and the farm system is loaded, as always.
Rating their chances: The Dodgers are the favorites to land Ohtani, and that’s not a shock. On paper, they absolutely offer the best of both worlds, the ability to pay and the ability to compete for World Series championships every year. Imagine a Dodgers lineup that started …
1. Mookie Betts
2. Shohei Ohtani
3. Freddie Freeman
Yeah. You can bet that will be part of the team’s pitch.
Mariners
Can they afford a $400 million contract? Yes, of course.
Can they/would they win a bidding war? Maybe not “win” but they could get close.
Are they positioned to compete for the next decade? Yes, though there are still areas of need. They have their resident superstar, Julio Rodriguez, who would combine with Ohtani to make a nice right-left batting combo atop the lineup. And they have a rotation that’s as deep in quality as any in baseball, all locked up for at least a few more seasons. After Ohtani’s experience in Anaheim, with the constant shuffling of people in and out of the rotation, that would be welcome. Think about it this way: The 2023 Mariners had four pitchers make at least 25 starts with an ERA of 4.32 or better. In Ohtani’s five full seasons (not counting the shortened 2020 campaign) in Anaheim, the Angels had six such seasons, including one by Ohtani himself.
Rating their chances: They aren’t the betting favorites, but they are a very solid contender. The competitive element is there, as is the motivation to spend to have several runs at getting the franchise to the World Series for the first time. Ohtani reportedly has lived in Seattle in the offseason, so he’s clearly comfortable there, and the opportunity to play for the same team as Ichiro — and get that team its first title — would be relished as a nice bonus.
Rangers
Can they afford a $400 million contract? Yes, of course.
Can they/would they win a bidding war? Yep. Winning a World Series generates a lot of bonus revenue for a franchise.
Are they positioned to compete for the next decade? No doubt. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are locked up, Evan Carter and Josh Jung have just arrived and the front office has shown the willingness to use free agency to address needs.
Rating their chances: Better than they were a month ago, surely. Winning matters. Don't have to squint to see this happening.
Phillies
Can they afford a $400 million contract? Yes, of course.
Can they/would they win a bidding war? After the heartbreak of falling short in the NLCS this year, absolutely.
Are they positioned to compete for the next decade? Yep. The farm system doesn’t rank particularly well (20ish most places), but there are a few premium prospects on the way. The duo of Bryce Harper and Trea Turner is locked up long-term, and guys like J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm will be around another couple years. Plus, with Dave Dombrowski making personnel decisions and owner John Middleton spending generously, it seems highly unlikely that the contending window in Philly is closing soon.
Rating their chances: There hasn’t been much buzz about Ohtani and the Phillies, but it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where Harper goes to Middleton, says “Let’s go get Ohtani and I’ll lead the recruiting pitch!” and a week later it’s all wrapped up.
Braves
Can they afford a $400 million contract? Yes, of course.
Can they/would they win a bidding war? Probably not.
Are they positioned to compete for the next decade? Absolutely, more than any team in the sport (and it’s not particularly close). Imagine slotting Ohtani into a core group — all locked up through at least 2027 — of Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies and Sean Murphy. Imagine a lineup that starts Acuña-Ohtani-Riley-Olson. Imagine the free-agent pitchers who would sign up to throw in front of a lineup that would score runs at a pace like that.
Rating their chances: The Braves could be the litmus test for Ohtani’s winning-over-money approach to free agency. If he truly wants an environment that’s the opposite of the eternal losing in Anaheim, he will absolutely seriously consider Atlanta.
Mets
Can they afford a $400 million contract? Yes, of course.
Can they/would they win a bidding war? Um, you’ve met their owner, right?
Are they positioned to compete for the next decade? They’re getting there. The 2023 season was a bit of a disaster, no doubt. There’s a big question about the future of the club’s resident slugger, Pete Alonso, who is a free agent after 2024. Two of the most highly-anticipated prospects, Francisco Alvarez and Bretty Baty, made their debuts last year and didn’t exactly set the league on fire (though Alvarez did hit 25 homers, to go with that 95 OPS+). The farm system has talented reinforcements working their way to the bigs, and owner Steve Cohen has shown that he’s committed to spending to fix issues the minor leagues won’t address.
Rating their chances: Cohen won’t be outbid. That feels safe to say. The biggest question is this: Can they convince Ohtani they’re on the precipice of the greatest decade of success in franchise history? That would be quite the challenge.
Cubs
Can they afford a $400 million contract? Yes, of course.
Can they/would they win a bidding war? They just gave their new manager $40 million, so … yes.
Are they positioned to compete for the next decade? They’re a club on the upswing, that’s for sure. But trying to figure out which teams might have dynastic tendencies is a tricky business, as Cubs fans know. The group that reached the NLCS in 2015 and won the World Series in 2016 felt like it could be a dynasty, and then everything went wrong.
Rating their chances: Wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Cubs made a huge impact move this offseason (other than stealing Craig Counsell), but something like trading for — and then extending — Juan Soto seems maybe more likely than landing Ohtani.
Orioles
Can they afford a $400 million contract? Yes, of course.
Can they/would they win a bidding war? They’ve spent basically nothing for five years in a row now. So, yeah, they absolutely could but it’s highly doubtful they would.
Are they positioned to compete for the next decade? The O’s are on the short list of teams best positioned to compete for the next decade, right up there behind the Braves and in the mix with the Rangers, Dodgers, Mariners and a few others. Imagine adding Ohtani near the top of the lineup with Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday for at least the next six or seven years. Imagine how much better those young stars could get watching and learning from Ohtani every single day. And then imagine having Ohtani at the top of that rotation in the playoffs in 2025 and beyond. Yeah.
Rating their chances: According to the sports books, not great. But, folks, this is an opportunity to take a really good team with a bright future and make it a great team with a future that’s the envy of the rest of the sport. No excuse not to make Ohtani a legitimate offer.
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Cardinals
Can they afford a $400 million contract? Yes, of course.
Can they/would they win a bidding war? It would be shocking
Are they positioned to compete for the next decade? No doubt, 2023 was fully a disaster. But this isn’t a team headed for a rebuild. The kind of impact prospects that teams dream of drafting and developing multiple years into a rebuild, the Cardinals already have several in the bigs — Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn — and more are on their way — Victor Scott, Ivan Herrera, Tink Hence, Gordon Graceffo, etc. There’s every reason to believe 2023 will be a hiccup, not a new normal. And the front office/ownership types have said they’re committed to spending money this offseason to improve the roster, especially the rotation. Obviously, Ohtani wouldn’t help in that regard in 2024 but something tells me the upset fan base would give the club a pass on the “three starters” promise if Ohtani came to town.
Rating their chances: Not great. Probably not even good, realistically. The Cardinals’ chances rely almost entirely on Ohtani wanting to play for the Cardinals, and accepting less than some teams would offer. Why would he want to play there? For starters, his best bud and WBC Team Japan teammate Lars Nootbaar plays for the Cardinals. They have already hung out this offseason. And remember how Albert Pujols was mostly miserable his last few years with the Angels, playing for a team that lost all the time? And then remember how rejuvenated he was when he came back to St. Louis, played for a contending team and made an incredible push to get to home run No. 700? You can bet Ohtani noticed that, too. And even though 2023 was a debacle, the track record — 16 playoff appearances and two World Series titles since 2000 — is pretty darn solid.
Red Sox
Can they afford a $400 million contract? Yes, of course.
Can they/would they win a bidding war? Yes, of course — if the owner decides to spend like a big-market club again.
Are they positioned to compete for the next decade? There is a ton of elite talent in the system, either already at the big-league level (Triston Casas, Ceddanne Rafaela, etc) or on the way (Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel, etc). Ohtani wouldn’t solve even their biggest problem — the Red Sox need pitching, pronto — but signing the global icon would be a sign the Red Sox are once again ready to compete at the highest level, after three last-place finishes in four seasons.
Rating their chances: They’re generating buzz, but this feels like a situation where the Red Sox need Ohtani a lot more than Ohtani needs the Red Sox.
Giants
Can they afford a $400 million contract? Yes, of course.
Can they/would they win a bidding war? They showed their willingness to make that happen by nearly landing Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last offseason, only to have both deals slip away for non-monetary reasons.
Are they positioned to compete for the next decade? This is the key element. Lots of things have to go well, and their chances of convincing a free-agent like Ohtani to choose San Francisco would probably be better next year, if the Giants have a bounce-back year under new manager Bob Melvin.
Rating their chances: Not as high as Giants fans would hope.
Blue Jays
Can they afford a $400 million contract? Yes, of course.
Can they/would they win a bidding war? Doubtful.
Are they positioned to compete for the next decade? Probably, but it’s too early to know for sure. Will Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., be part of the team for the next decade? Putting Ohtani in the lineup sandwiched by those two elite right-handed hitters would help.
Rating their chances: Not great.
Padres
Can they afford a $400 million contract? Yes, of course.
Can they/would they win a bidding war? Probably, but …
Are they positioned to compete for the next decade? I mean, who knows? There’s zero reason the club should have spent virtually all of 2023 out of contention, and yet there they were languishing way back in the AL West and wild-card standings. There was too much talent for this roster to be a playoff afterthought. Even after sending away top-notch prospects/young players in deals for guys like Juan Soto, the farm system cupboard is far from bare.
Rating their chances: A lot depends on what they intend to do with Soto. If they want to lock him up long-term — that would take $400 million, at least — Ohtani’s out of the question. If they trade Soto and bring back a haul of young talent, though? And do that early in the offseason? That could change the equation. The biggest hill to climb, likely, would be convincing Ohtani that San Diego is the place where he can best compete for World Series titles.
Astros
Can they afford a $400 million contract? Yes, of course.
Can they/would they win a bidding war? Yeah, probably so.
Are they positioned to compete for the next decade? They clearly have the track record, what with the seven consecutive trips to the ALCS and two World Series titles, but the Astros are at a bit of a crossroads right now. The farm system was at or near the bottom of pretty much every ranking, and that was before they traded two premium prospects, Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford, in the deal to bring Justin Verlander back. Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, two franchise cornerstones, are eligible to become free agents after the 2024 season. Seems like very little chance that Ohtani would sign in Houston not knowing if those two are going to be around long-term.
Rating their chances: Not good.
Yankees
Can they afford a $400 million contract? Yes, of course.
Can they/would they win a bidding war? Wrong Steinbrenner.
Are they positioned to compete for the next decade? Honestly, no. They have Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge and about a million questions after those two.
Rating their chances: The oddsmakers keep listing the Yankees top-five, which is why they’re included here. I would be stunned to see this actually happen, though.
