Shohei Ohtani vs. Aaron Judge MVP odds: Which superstar makes for a safer bet to win MLB award in 2024?

Major League Baseball has enjoyed multiple eras with a power-hitting superstar in both the AL and NL. Few eras have been quite as entertaining as this season, though, with Shohei Ohtani leading the Dodgers and Aaron Judge shouldering the load for the Yankees. 

With over 55 percent of the 2024 season complete, these guys seem like they're running away with MVPs of their respective leagues. They started July with negative odds and shortened up even further the week of July 8. At last glance, BetMGM had Ohtani listed at -350 to win the NL while Judge was -300.

No big deal — just a 78-percent and 75-percent implied win probability with nearly three months of regular-season action left. Bettors would be crazy to risk betting those odds, right? Right!?

Crazy like a fox, maybe. Let's take a look at the full AL and NL MVP odds on BetMGM, and discuss (a) whether Judge or Ohtani make for the safer pick and (b) which bets you can make that yield value. 

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MLB 2024 MVP odds: Where Ohtani and Judge sit

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

MLB 2024 MVP odds: Why Judge is the best bet in the AL

As we all know by now, people love power. And with Judge matching his record-breaking home-run pace from two years ago, he sits in the driver's seat with everyone else not just in the backseat but rather in the trunk.

Plain and simple, dudes aren't going to lose the MVP race if they lead the majors in power-hitting, flirt with history, put their team on their back, and also hit for average — especially if they play for the New York Yankees.

The Orioles' Henderson leads the majors in runs and the Royals' Witt has the most hits and doubles, but both pale in comparison to Judge's MLB-best 32 homers and 83 RBIs. If not for the Yankees' scuffling toward the All-Star break — not to mention Judge's injury history — the stud outfielder might be at -500 to win.

MORE: Judge, Ohtani headline All-Star selections — view the full AL & NL rosters

MLB 2024 MVP odds: Why Ohtani is even safer in the NL

Ohtani's Dodgers are deeper and more dangerous than the Yankees, and Ohtani has been the main culprit. He has stepped up and effortlessly filled Mookie Betts' shoes (and then some) in the leadoff position with Betts hurt, and he's now on pace for 50 homers and 40 steals. He leads the NL in runs, home runs, and every power stat.

Statcast helps Ohtani's case, too. His 61.1-percent hard-hit rate and 95.4 mile-per-hour average exit velocity are completely bananas and both way above the rates he finished with in the two seasons in which he unanimously won MVP. No other offensive player in the NL can touch those advanced numbers.

Of course, Ohtani's not pitching this season — but he's also playing for a team that should win its division and perhaps the league (as opposed to the last couple of times he won MVP as part of the perennially disappointing Angels). As long as Sho-time stays healthy, he should bag his third MVP trophy pretty handily. 

MLB 2024 MVP odds: A creative way to bet for value

One way to bet both these superstars to win MVP is to parlay them into one bet. Not all sportsbooks allow bettors to combine futures bets — so check yours to see if it's even an option — but if so, it's a fantastic way to get action on both studs without having to spend an arm and a leg to turn a profit.

FanDuel, which lists Judge and Ohtani at -300 and -350 just like BetMGM, actually allows MVP parlaying. If you combine both frontrunners, the parlay odds lengthen to -136. A $100 bet on a -136 two-leg parlay with two overwhelming MVP favorites sure seems like a superior option than betting either Judge or Ohtani in the -300 to -350 range.

Think about it this way: a $100 bet on Ohtani at -350 would yield you less of a profit than a $40 bet on Ohtani and Judge at -136. It would also give you a rooting interest in the two most exciting power hitters in the modern game, and one heck of a story to tell your friends at the end of the season.