NASHVILLE, Tenn. — By the end of the week, the trade of a mid-rotation starter and a fringe reliever for a setup man and a depth starter will fade into the background of winter meetings news, but the American League should be more worried than ever about what the Red Sox are doing.
By acquiring Carson Smith from the Mariners along with Roenis Elias on Monday, in exchange for Wade Miley and Jonathan Aro, Boston has further strengthened a bullpen that was one of the weak links for a team that finished last in the East in 2015 but was not nearly as far from contending as that standing would indicate.
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The headline moves of the winter for the Red Sox are the signing of David Price to front the rotation and the trade for Craig Kimbrel to be the new closer. Smith, who had a 2.31 ERA in 70 innings for the Mariners in his rookie season, joins former closer Koji Uehara and fellow right-hander Junichi Tazawa in a setup corps that can rival what the defending world champion Royals have to offer.
The 2015 Boston bullpen had a 4.24 ERA and tied for fourth-worst in the majors with a strikeout rate of 7.8 per nine innings in a total of 501 frames. Kimbrel and Smith combined to pitch 129 1/3 innings this year, with an ERA of 2.43 and a strikeout rate of 12.5. Putting their innings in place of inferior relievers, how different might things look for a team that went 36-39 in games decided by one or two runs?
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Together as a quartet, Kimbrel, Smith, Uehara and Tazawa pitched 228 1/3 innings with a strikeout rate of 11.1 and a 2.84 ERA in 2015. The Royals’ current top four of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, Luke Hochevar and not-yet-officially-signed Joakim Soria combined for 255 1/3 innings, posting a 2.40 ERA with that one-third of an inning pushing the strikeout rate a tick below 9.0.
It’s at least a debate as to which bullpen looks more difficult to mount a late-inning comeback against, and that would have been unthinkable just a few weeks ago. With Price now basically taking Miley’s spot in the rotation, jumping from No. 3 to No. 1 and pushing Clay Buchholz and Rick Porcello down to where they belong in a rotation, the Red Sox look that much better. Elias, a 27-year-old left-hander who had a 4.14 ERA in 22 games (20 starts) for Seattle, goes toward rotation depth along with Joe Kelly, Steven Wright and Henry Owens. Along with penciled-in No. 4 man Eduardo Rodriguez, who could be better than that ranking, Boston has the makings of a quality rotation to go along with a lineup that scored the fourth-most runs in the American League.
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The one question that needs to be asked is why the Mariners, whose bullpen is less than inspiring, would do this. The answer would be that as good as Smith looked as a rookie, Miley is a starter entering his age-29 season with two years and $15.1 million left on his contract, plus a $12 million option for 2018. He’s been above 190 innings each of the last four years and fits better in Seattle than he did in an American League East that can be exceptionally rough on left-handers.
Relievers are a lot more fungible than cost-controlled, reliable innings-delivering starters, and it’s also possible that Aro, who had never pitched above Single-A before making it to the majors in 2015, will become something more than he appeared to be in allowing runs in five of six big-league outings. Aro did post a 3.04 ERA in 74 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, with 72 strikeouts, so there is that much for the 25-year-old to work with.
It remains to be seen what else new GM Jerry Dipoto does with the Seattle bullpen, and there’s plenty of winter left to make things happen. But in shipping Smith to Boston, he has helped create something that could be truly special for another team on the rebound in 2016.