Chris Sale's velocity is a concern right now, there is no way around it.
In the second inning of his outing against the Blue Jays on Tuesday, the 30-year-old lefty was averaging 92.1 mph on his fastball.
That in and of itself isn't concerning. Pitchers can win by throwing in the low 90s, but when you take a look at Sale's velocity and pitch usage this year compared to years past, it is notable, and frankly scary for Red Sox fans.
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Through two starts this season, according to Fangraphs, Sale was averaging 90.9 mph on his fastball. In his first start of the year he averaged 92.9 mph on his heater, which was his third-lowest since the start of 2017, according to Brooks Baseball. And he hasn't matched that velocity in his subsequent two starts.
While 92.9 mph isn't crazy slow in general, for Sale it is. Coming into 2019, Sale's lowest velocity over the course of a season in the last five years was 92.8 mph in 2016 with the White Sox. Sale was good that year, finishing fifth in the American League Cy Young voting.
However, it should be noted Sale also posted the second-worst ERA of his career that season at 3.34 and he did so in a division with several pitchers' ballparks in Detroit, Kansas City, Cleveland and Chicago.
When Sale's velocity goes down, he isn't as dominating. Since coming into MLB in 2010 with the White Sox, during years in which he averaged better than 94 mph (2010, 2011, 2015, 2017, 2018) he posted much better strikeout numbers, averaging 12.5 K/9 vs. 9.5 K/9 in all other years.
Furthermore, when he eclipses 94 mph on the year (over five seasons) he has posted sub-3.00 ERAs four times. In all other years he has done it just once.
But while it's easy to simply point at velocity and numbers to show why he is having trouble to start the year — posting a 9.00 ERA through two starts after allowing five earned runs in four innings Tuesday — the easy way to see he is struggling is this: he's simply not throwing his fastball as much.
Before the 2019 season, Sale threw fewer than 50 percent fastballs in a season one time, and that was 49.2 percent of his pitches in 2017. Sale is throwing his fastball on just 36.2 percent of his offerings this season.
Now, that could be an indicator of a new pitching philosophy, but the other Red Sox starters David Price, Rick Porcello, Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodriguez are all throwing their fastballs at nearly an identical rate, so it's pretty difficult to say that's what happened.
Something is wrong with Chris Sale and it's most likely not a sickness he had before his last start.
Cora said Chris Sale was sick before his last start. “Only made 50 throws between starts. I don’t want to make excuses for my guys,” but inferred it affected his velocity. “He spent a lot of time in the bathroom.”
— Jason Mastrodonato (@JMastrodonato) April 9, 2019