Ozzie Albies is a bit of a conumdrum. We've seen the excitment he brings to the game. We've seen the surprising number of early home runs. We've seen the ever-accumulating total of extra-base hits. It's all fun, and it's all great.
But here's the thing: Ozzie Albies doesn't really get on base that much. Seriously.
For all the good Albies has done through 41 games, the Braves' second baseman carries a paltry .316 on-base percentage coming into play Wednesday. That's not good, especially not good for a lead-off hitter. So why bring this up? Whatever he's doing is clearly working, right? Well, it depends on how you look at it. And here's how I look at it: Albies would probably be an even better hitter with just a slight change to his offensive approach.
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First, some background: The Braves have taken an aggressive approach with their offense in 2018. For example, they've put the first pitch in play in 234 at-bats in 2018, by far the most in MLB. Overall, they've had 578 plate appearances in which they swung at the first pitch, also the most by far. It's hard to argue that the aggressive approach isn't working — they're in first place and lead the NL in a slew of offensive categories, including average, on-base percentage and slugging. Albies has clearly been a big part of their success, but early in the count he's arguably been a victim of an over-aggressive approach, as that .316 on-base percentage indicates.
Consider: Albies has put the ball in play on the first pitch more than any other count — 38 times through Tuesday — and more than any other Brave this season. And in those at-bats, he has an average and on-base percentage of .342 with four home runs. While .342 would be a great average over a full season, it's not especially great when the goal is to reach base on the first pitch of an at-bat (league average on the first-pitch batted balls is .325). So while you can argue that Albies is better than average on first-pitch swings, the difference doesn't seem vast enough to justify the approach.
So what would be good? That's tough to say. But if a hitter — especially in the lead-off spot — routinely attempts to reach base on the first pitch he sees, the success rate should be much higher for that approach to be considered appropriate for that hitter. For example, Freddie Freeman can ambush a first pitch with the best of them. He's hitting .467 when he puts the first pitch in play, which justifies a swing-early approach.
But it's not limited to just the first pitch with Albies. He's seen two or fewer pitches in 72 at-bats and is hitting a combined .333 when putting an 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1 pitch in play, which, again, isn't nearly as good as it seems given the circumstances. League average for those combined spots is .327. Check out Albies' overall count splits here.
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Which brings us back to Albies' low on-base percentage. Consider the on-base percentages of a few other lead-off men on contenders: Mookie Betts, Red Sox: .426; Cesar Herhandez, Phillies: .383; David Peralta, Diamondbacks: .368; Ben Zobrist, Cubs: .365; Brett Gardner, Yankees: .351. Granted, there are different types of players represented here, but you get the idea.
Last year, Albies had a .354 on-base percentage in 244 plate appearances after his call-up in August. After carrying a solid .342 OBP for March/April this season, he's seen that number drop to just .269 in May. One reason is that pitchers seem to have adjusted and are peppering the zone with high fastballs when Albies is at the plate, which, given his aggressive approach, has resulted in a lot of pop-ups or shallow fly outs. His average and on-base percentage when he puts the ball in the air is .224, despite his 13 homers. Not to mention that Albies doesn't walk much. He's had just nine so far in 194 plate appearances. But that's usually what happens when a batter consistently swings early in the count.
So what should/could Albies do to boost his on-base numbers? Well, there are a couple of options:
1) Be more patient: The most productive time for Albies to swing has been on a 1-1 count. He's hitting .500 with three homers and 10 RBIs in those situations. When he's ahead in the count, he's hitting .383 with a .491 on-base percentage and four homers. So, it would seem, even a little patience would be to his advantage.
2) Be more selective: There's nothing wrong with swinging at the first pitch, or otherwise being aggressive early in the count — assuming you get good pitches to hit. But when young batters get hyped up to swing, there can be a tendency to chase pitches outside their hot zones. Consider this at-bat May 6 against the Giants, in which Albies batted with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, with the Braves down by one and the tying run at third. The first pitch is in the high-inside portion of the strike zone — not at all in Albies' wheel house. He offers a weak swing, perhaps realizing too late it isn't the pitch he wanted, and pops out to end the game.
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Of course, there's also a third option when discussing all this.
3) Do nothing: This is where I'm willing to consider the potential foolishness of my argument. Maybe Albies should just keep doing what he's doing. Maybe his run production makes up for a lack of on-base prowess. His wRC+ is 140 (that's 27th best in MLB; league average is 100). When he gets hits, he tends to get a lot out of them: Of his 50 hits in 2018, 28 have been for extra bases. He's tied for the MLB lead in homers, he leads the NL in total bases and runs, and is tied for the team lead in RBIs. He's accumulated 1.8 rWAR so far, which is third-highest on the team. Perhaps I just don't know what I'm talking about.
But ...
It seems a more patient approach at the plate would not only make Albies an even better hitter, but would make the Braves a better team. In theory, with Albies on base more there would be more stolen bases, more runners in scoring position and more RBI chances for Acuña, Freeman and Markakis — who have already accounted for a crazy amount of run-scoring hits. In other words, it would present the potential for a lot more runs for the Braves, who already rank third in MLB in that category. But imagine how it might look if Albies had, say, a .350 OBP and wreaked more havoc on the bases. It could make a scary offense even more intimidating.
Also important: Ablies is still just 21, so there's obviously plenty to time for him to mature as a hitter. As his power numbers regress — it's not wise to expect him to keep this pace up for the whole season — his other offensive skills, such as his speed and ability to drive the ball, will need to take over if he's to remain such a valuable piece of the Braves' offense.
Albies has been a big surprise so far. But don't be surprised if he gets even better.
