Orioles aren't tanking in 2016, but they may wish they were

Jesse Spector

Orioles aren't tanking in 2016, but they may wish they were image

As the 2016 MLB season approaches, SN's Jesse Spector will provide an outlook for each team. Today: the Orioles.

2015: 81-81, third place in American League East

Key arrivals: OF/1B Mark Trumbo, OF Hyun Soo Kim, RHP Yovani Gallardo, OF Dexter Fowler

Key departures: LHP Wei-Yin Chen, OF Gerardo Parra, OF Steve Pearce

Best-case scenario: Chris Tillman bounces back, Kevin Gausman breaks out and Ubaldo Jimenez has one of his good years, providing the basis for a solid rotation. Manny Machado goes from young superstar to one of the best players in the game in his age-23 season. J.J. Hardy returns from a year spent method acting in hopes of landing a role on "The Walking Dead." Various calamities befall division rivals and the Orioles win their second division title in three years.

MORE: Fantasy: Key players on new teams | Every AL team has a shot

Worst-case scenario: Hanging around the fringes of the wild-card race in late July, the Orioles decide to go for it, at least as best they can, but with limited prospect resources are only able to make a minor upgrade or two in the outfield and rotation (signing Dexter Fowler would have made the outfield less of an issue). In a repeat of 2015, August  is a disaster and the Orioles finish right around .500. This is worse than a total disaster of a season that leads to a July selloff because at least in that situation, the Orioles might be able to restock the farm a bit and get a little more realistic about what it takes to really compete in the East.

Big question: Have we seen the best of Adam Jones? The five-time All-Star is 30, and his OPS+ figures the past four years have been 125, 118, 115 and 109. His MVP finishes in that time have been sixth, 13th, 14th and no votes received. Meanwhile, Jones’ salaries have been $6.15 million, $8.5 million, $13 million and $13.3 million. He’s up to $16.3 million this year, and if the return on investment keeps slipping, that’s bad news. Jones has value beyond his on-field contributions as a clear leader and someone who has been in Baltimore since 2008, but those on-field contributions cannot fall further if the Orioles are going to contend.

PREVIEWS: Giants

Don’t forget: The Orioles return five relievers — Brad Brach, Darren O’Day, Mychal Givens, Brian Matusz and closer Zach Britton — who combined for 344 strikeouts in 289 1/3 innings last year, with an ERA of 2.21. If the rotation is even serviceable (a big if, mind you), the Orioles can hang in close games and try to win them on one swing of the bat from Chris Davis, Jones, Machado, Trumbo, Matt Wieters or even Jonathan Schoop.

Five crazy-sounding words you can talk yourself into not sounding so crazy: Most Valuable Player Manny Machado.

Over-the-top proclamation to regret later: The rotation, which features zero pitchers who had a FIP below 4.00 last year (including Gallardo, who was right at 4.00), will be a disaster, and trying to play the power game without enough runners on base to make it work will send the Orioles to the East basement, even though they won’t be bad enough to lose 90 games.

Jesse Spector