Who he is: Baseball-Reference.com founder Sean Forman recently tweeted an interesting chart about the Hall of Fame candidacy of shortstop Omar Vizquel, who’ll be newly eligible on the Baseball Writers’ Association of America’s ballot this fall.
This is where Omar Vizquel's HOF candidacy should start & end. He's behind Erick Aybar for Wins above Avg. #NomarBeforeOmar #accumulator pic.twitter.com/mnoNB6B7N5
— Sean Forman (@sean_forman) January 20, 2017
It’s weird. Vizquel won 11 Gold Gloves and has one of the finest reputations of any fielder in baseball history. While he got maligned once in a classic episode of "The Simpsons" when Bart fleeces a distracted Milhouse into trading a dog-eared, Seattle Mariners-years Vizquel card to him for a Carl Yastrzemski rookie, Vizquel soon came to personify defensive excellence in baseball. By sabermetrics, though, Vizquel’s practically a below-average player. And, as Forman pointed out, numerous shortstops rank better than Vizquel, depending on which metric one favors.
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According to the Play Index tool on Forman’s site, Vizquel’s 5.0 Wins Above Average are tied for 54th among inactive shortstops who aren’t in Cooperstown. By Wins Above Replacement, which rates Vizquel far better because of his longevity, he’s 10th among inactive, non-enshrined shortstops with 45.3 WAR. Sabermetrics reaffirm Vizquel as a good defensive shortstop, with his 127.6 runs saved while fielding 18th-best among all shortstops in baseball history. But his minus-244.3 runs worse than average as a hitter paint him as the 13th-worst hitting shortstop of all time. Adjusting for his era, Vizquel would be just about the worst-hitting position player in the Hall of Fame.
Sabermetrics aren’t everything, of course, particularly to the type of Hall of Fame voter who might support Vizquel. But advanced stats hint at controversy that could swirl this fall. Put another way, Vizquel’s popularity with Cooperstown voters is going to anger some people. Already, Forman got into it with longtime Giants beat writer Andrew Baggarly over Vizquel. Similar debates are sure to follow elsewhere.
That said, the chart Forman posted hints at a potential silver lining for statisticians and historians: As fans, voters and others dig into Vizquel’s candidacy, there’s a good chance they could notice the many fine, underrated shortstops who rank in front of him — some of whom could use considerably more help getting in the Hall of Fame.
Waves of shortstops have been inducted before. Could Vizquel’s induction help kick-start another wave?
Cooperstown chances: 50 percent odds Vizquel is inducted by the BBWAA at some point during his candicacy.
Shortstops who might be helped by Vizquel’s induction, in alphabetical order: Mark Belanger, Bert Campaneris, Bill Dahlen, Art Fletcher, Nomar Garciaparra, Jack Glasscock, Marty Marion, Vern Stephens, Alan Trammell.
Why: With the Hall of Fame as exclusive as it is, every position in baseball has a list of players who might at least merit consideration for Cooperstown. Shortstop is no different in this regard, perhaps because of how significant of a determining factor offensive numbers can be in getting a player inducted. Shortstops often stake their place in baseball with their glove, and it can hurt their legacies down the road. Just ask Mark Belanger, arguably the best-fielding shortstop in baseball history but whose .228 lifetime batting average helped him top out at just 3.7 percent of the vote his only year on the writers’ ballot in 1988. It’s striking that Belanger did even this well, in fact.
There are a number of other good shortstops who aren’t in the Hall of Fame, particularly the farther back one goes. Jack Glasscock’s descendants owe some kind of debt to Society for American Baseball Research member and 19th Century Committee chairman Adam Darowski, who has lobbied hard in recent years to get him in. Dahlen, who has been on a few veterans ballots in recent years, has a strong case as well.
MORE: Full 2017 Hall of Fame voting results
Trammell seems like the most likely candidate to be helped if Vizquel makes a run at induction through the BBWAA. Trammell will be newly eligible this fall with the Modern Era Baseball Committee (what the Veterans Committee is calling itself for his era) and dwarfs Vizquel by any number of different metrics. Trammell’s 40.2 Wins Above Average is also best of any inactive shortstop who isn’t in the Hall of Fame. By sabermetrics at least, Trammell has a very solid case, one that's arguably better than Derek Jeter's.
An interesting convergence could happen with the Hall of Fame, between Trammell becoming eligible on the veterans’ ballot this fall, Vizquel hitting the writers’ ballot around the same time, and Jeter eligible in just under three years. There might be a lot of focus on shortstops with the Hall of Fame over the next few years.
It’s worth noting that the Hall of Fame has been here before. The early to mid-1980s saw the induction of several shortstops: Travis Jackson in 1982; Luis Aparicio and Pee Wee Reese in 1984; and Arky Vaughan in 1985. A few other shortstops also got a lot of consideration from the Veterans Committee in this time: Phil Rizzuto, who was eventually inducted in 1994; and Glenn Wright and Marty Marion, whose names might not be as well-known to contemporary fans but who each appeared on several Veterans Committee ballots. Wright’s case has seemingly been dormant for 20 years. Marion, on the other hand, still pops up on ballots when his era is up for consideration.
We could be nearing a stretch of heightened regard for shortstops, given the number of well-regarded shortstops outside Cooperstown. The other possibility, of course, is that Jeter debuts on the ballot for 2019, receives 100 percent of the vote or close to it, and all other shortstops look worse by comparison. That would be unfortunate. Lackluster sabermetric rating or not, Vizquel would be one of many shortstops to get short shrift under such an arrangement.