The NL MVP race has seemed all but decided for about a month, with Ronald Acuña Jr. having played at such a high level — with his potent combo of power and speed putting him on pace for a historic finish — that nobody else was ever seriously in the conversation.
But maybe we should pause to reconsider, just for a moment. Just as a thought exercise. Just for fun. Just...go with it. Because one of Acuña's former teammates is making a lot of noise, and it's not beyond the realm of possibilities that he could sneak up and wrestle that MVP trophy away from the Braves' right fielder.
Hello, Freddie Freeman.
MORE: MLB trade deadline predictions: Is Juan Soto on the move?
Steady Freddie has indeed been steady again — as in, steadily getting better and climbing the leaderboard thanks to a scorching July. Entering play on Friday, Freeman is right there with Acuña — and better than him in some cases — in everything other than stolen bases (which are admittedly a big deal that we'll get to in a bit).
Freeman's July surge has made him the NL leader in slugging percentage (.581), OPS (.989), OPS+ (162), and total bases (234). In the traditional categories, Freeman has 21 homers, 35 doubles (best in the NL) and 87 runs scored (one behind Acuña). Look at the overall comparison:
Average/On-base percentage
| Player | AVG | OBP |
| Freeman | .328 | .409 |
| Acuña | .327 | .407 |
Hits/Homers/RBIs
| Player | Hits | HR | RBI |
| Freeman | 132 | 21 | 71 |
| Acuña | 131 | 23 | 58 |
OPS/fWAR/bWAR
| Player | OPS | fWAR | bWAR |
| Freeman | .989 | 5.0 | 4.5 |
| Acuña | .976 | 5.1 | 5.0 |
On-pace numbers
| Player | HR | RBI | fWAR |
| Freeman | 34 | 114 | 8.0 |
| Acuña | 37 | 94 | 8.3 |
The negligible difference in their WAR can be attributed to Acuña's MLB-leading 48 stolen bases. Other than that, their stats are remarkably even. But those stolen bases would almost certainly be the key difference to MVP voters because of what they're on pace to represent.
Acuña is on pace to finish with 78 steals, which, combined with his homer projection, would make him the first 30/70 player in MLB history. Even if he slows down a bit on the base paths, he'd also be the first 30/60 player in history. That's a huge deal. Doing something sexy that's never been done carries lots of weight with voters, and it would be hard for Freeman or anyone else to overcome that.
But — and it's a significant but — this assumes that Acuña keeps up this pace, which is never a guarantee. Whether through natural regression or even a minor injury, it could take only one prolonged Acuña cold spell or absence for Freeman to leapfrog him and become the MVP frontrunner. Of course, the same could be said of a potential Freeman cold spell that creates a greater chasm between he and Acuña.
MORE: Will the Angels get their Hollywood ending with Shohei Ohtani?
Right now, though, nobody expects a significant Acuña regression, especially the betting markets. Though he trails Freeman fairly significantly in production this month (.837 OPS to Freeman's 1.169), Acuña is still the overwhelming betting favorite for NL MVP (-500, an 83 percent implied probability). Freeman, as you might expect, is comfortably positioned at No. 2 (+600, a 14 percent implied probability).
Still, a close(r) MVP race would be really interesting as we head down the stretch. Great players have been known to kick it up a notch as the games get more important, and Acuña and Freeman are both great players, so the whole thing would be a blast. A nightly "MVP watch," with Acuña showcasing his elite skills on the east coast and then Freeman trying to match him on the west coast, would be a fun subplot to complement the usual late-season drama.
For now, at least, the award is still Acuña’s to lose. But circle Sept. 1-3 on your calendar. That's when the Braves meet the Dodgers in L.A. for a three-game set. It'll be a battle of titans and a potential postseason preview, sure, but the MVP race could provide the showdown an extra dose of intensity.
