Unlike the National League MVP vote, the competition for the league's Cy Young Award is limited to a small number of candidates. That doesn't make the decision easier for the 30 voters from the Baseball Writers' Association of America (two from each NL city), but at least the debate won't take as long. Right?
Consider this: This year's top four candidates also lead the National Leaguer in bWAR. That might be more of a commentary on starting pitching in general — these guys are the class of the field, but they're not 1968 Bob Gibson— but the ranking does show how important these aces have been to their teams.
Let's examine the group's qualifications, with the three favorites listed alphabetically.
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The favorites
Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets
Why he's here: Come for the ERA, stay for the hard-luck stories. DeGrom finished his season with a major league-best 1.70 (MLB-best 2.03 FIP) after blanking the Braves over eight innings in his final start of the season vs. the Braves. He also struck out 10 Atlanta hitters to give him 269 for the season and an even 1,000 for his career.
Now, for the tales of woe: His pitching line in his nine 2018 losses — 63 innings, 2.71 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, four home runs allowed. The Mets scored 13 runs total in those defeats. His numbers in his 13 no-decisions — 83 1/3 innings, 1.62 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, six homers allowed. He gave up zero homers in his 10 wins.
This message has been approved by Jacob deGrom. pic.twitter.com/TQK3rWb86R
— SportsNet New York (@SNYtv) October 1, 2018
Pundits, unimpressed, have said deGrom should have pitched better to earn more Ws. Tough crowd. A 10-9, sub-2.00-ERA, 0.91-WHIP, .196-opponents'-average, almost-10-WAR season should still be good enough for a lot of voters.
Aaron Nola, RHP, Phillies
Why he's here: Imagine if he were able to pitch one or two more innings against the Braves on Opening Day. OK, that's a needless shot at Phillies rookie manager Gabe Kapler, but the skipper did hook Nola in the sixth inning with the Phillies leading 5-0. The Phils' bullpen then cost Nola a win.
Nola earned a lot more trust from Kapler after that, and the results have followed: a 2.37 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 0.975 WHIP and 0.7 HR/9 over a career-high 33 starts and 212 1/3 innings, with his final start coming against, of all teams, the Braves. Nola was dialed in, earning back a victory against Atlanta, his 17th W on the year.
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Max Scherzer, RHP, Nationals
Why he's here: Scherzer is so darn tough to hit. This year he has set a career high with 300 strikeouts, registered his second-lowest batting average against (.188, the third consecutive season opponents have been under the Mendoza line) and compiled his second-lowest WHIP (0.91, his fourth consecutive season under 1.00). Unlike deGrom, he pitches for a team that hits and has had a decent bullpen for a lot of the season, so he has been credited with 18 wins, most in the NL.
He was scheduled to make one more start vs. the Rockies in Denver on the season's final day — but was pulled just the day before the game took place.
Other contenders
Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland earned his place on the ballot by conquering Coors Field. You think he may have picked up a few things while growing up in the Denver area and watching a ton of Rockies home games? His home splits look like something from Dodger Stadium or AT&T Park: a 2.40 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in 93 2/3 innings, and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. That's why his park-adjusted ERA+ is 164 (fourth-best in the NL) in just his second major league season. His road splits pale in comparison: a 3.23 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 108 2/3 innings.
Diamondbacks left-hander Patrick Corbin stepped up during his walk year and became Arizona's No. 2 starter, behind Zack Greinke and ahead of Robbie Ray. Corbin's 2.47 FIP, second-lowest among qualifying NL pitchers, is the product of 246 strikeouts, 48 walks and 15 home runs allowed over 200 innings (11.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9).
Miles Mikolas' return to the majors after three seasons in Japan couldn't have gone better; the right-hander has been a horse for the Cardinals, throwing 200 2/3 innings on the season. "Wins" voters will pay attention to his 18 (tied for first in the NL) against just four losses, for a league-best .818 winning percentage. His low strikeout total (146) has contributed to a good-not-great 3.28 FIP, however.
