MLB umpires missed 34,294 ball-strike calls in 2018, study shows

Bob Hille

MLB umpires missed 34,294 ball-strike calls in 2018, study shows image

Younger MLB umpires missed fewer ball-strike calls, but umpires on the whole got an average of 14 per game, or 1.6 per inning, wrong in 2018, according to a new study from Boston University

The study — led by professor Mark T. Williams — looked at nearly 4 million pitches from the past 11 MLB seasons, and early in the study's report, its authors make clear the basis for the study:

"(T)hroughout its history, MLB has protected its error-prone umpires, resisted adopting strong performance measurements, and not taken advantage of available technology that could better the game. At a time of autonomous cars and machine learning, MLB needs to embrace useful change. … Given how MLB is heavily dependent on performance statistics when evaluating players, it is surprising the league has been sluggish to apply similar rigor to umpire hiring, promotion, and retention."

MORE: Watch 'ChangeUp,' a new MLB live whiparound show on DAZN

In addition to the more the 34,294 missed calls in 2018 (based on data available at MLB.com, Baseball Savant and Retrosheet), there were other intriguing findings about the so-called Bad Call Ratio (BCR) across the 11-season study:

— Umpires have a persistent "two-strike bias." With two strikes on a batter, umpires were twice as likely to call a true ball a strike (29 percent of the time) than with a lower count (15 percent).

— There is a strike-zone blind spot in the top right and top left of the zone, where pitches were miscalled 27 percent and 26.8 percent of the time, respectively. By comparison, calls in the bottom right and bottom left were missed 18.3 and 14.3 percent of the time, respectively.

— Fifty-five games in 2018 ended with incorrect ball-strike calls.

— The top 10 performing umpires averaged 2.7 years of experience. The bottom 10 averaged 20.6 years of experience. (John Libka is 32, and with only 1.5 years of experience, has generated a BCR of 7.59 percent.)

— Umpires' Bad Call Ratio appeared to have little effect on postseason assignments in 2018. None of the 10 best umpires worked the World Series, and 20-year veteran Ted Barrett, a bottom 10 performer in 2018, was chosen for the Red Sox-Dodgers series. Joe West, who had the second-worst Bad Call Ratio, also was selected for the World Series.

The Top 5 Umpires

Rank Umpire Age Exp. Calls Bad calls BCR
1. Mark Wegner 47 19 4,700 342 7.28%
2. John Libka 32 1.5 2,046 150 7.33%
3. Will Little 35 4.5 4,322 331 7.66%
4. Tom Woodring 37 5 2,965 228 7.69%
5. Janssen Visconti 31 1 4,363 340 7.79%

The Bottom 5 Umpires

Rank Umpire Age Exp. Calls Bad calls BCR
1. Ted Barrett 54 20 4,291 495 11.54%
2. Joe West 67 40 4,480 512 11.43%
3. Rob Drake 50 10 2,496 285 11.42%
4. Dan Iassogna 50 16 1,068 116 10.86%
5. Gary Cederstrom 64 24 4,696 506 10.78%

The study's conclusion, based on its findings, pushes MLB to embrace change: "High-tech aids and greater recruitment of competent younger umpires is another important step. … It is unrealistic to assume that home-plate umpires, unassisted, can collectively achieve the accuracy rates increasingly demanded by the sports industry and deserving fans."

To read the entire report, see the breakdown of numbers and other highlights from the 11-season study, click here

Bob Hille

Bob Hille Photo

Bob Hille, a senior content consultant for The Sporting News, has been part of the TSN team for most of the past 30 years, including as managing editor and executive editor. He is a native of Texas (forever), adopted son of Colorado, where he graduated from Colorado State, and longtime fan of “Bull Durham” (h/t Annie Savoy for The Sporting News mention).