We all know who is going to be traded at the July 31 deadline. You could write that yourselves. Madison Bumgarner, Marcus Stroman and Matthew Boyd are all likely to move and you've read just about all you can take on those guys.
But, what about the pitchers who are going to surprise you? Because let's be honest, there is a surprise move every year. In 2015 the Astros got Mike Fiers in the Carlos Gomez deal, in 2018, the Yankees picked up Lance Lynn and even this year Andrew Cashner has already been dealt to the Red Sox.
These weren't widely talked about moves before they happened, but they did have influences on teams down the road. So who could those players be this year? We took a few of these out of left field, but, while they would be surprising, it wouldn't surprise us if they happened.
Potential sleeper moves Astros, Yankees, Phillies could make to bolster rotations
Astros: Jon Gray, Rockies; Jeff Samardzija, Giants
The Astros are desperate for help in their starting rotation as is evident in the team's last two pitching outings. Add that to Brad Peacock's questionable health, Josh James and Collin McHugh's limited current pitch counts and the team's disappointment with their minor-league pitchers and Houston will almost undoubtedly look outside the organization for assistance.
The first name that springs to mind for help would be Jon Gray of the Rockies. There's a couple of reasons for that. For one, he is a predominantly four-seam fastball/slider pitcher, which Houston loves, and the Astros already considered drafting him back in 2013 when they passed over him and Kris Bryant to take Mark Appel. Gray hasn't been great, but get him to the Astros and Brent Strom and out of Coors Field and who knows what will happen. It should be noted, Gray is not available just yet, but if the Rockies continue to struggle, he very well could be.
Jeff Samardzija is along the same line as Gray. He's a four-seam fastball/slider pitcher (or at least those are his most effective pitches) and he has had to pitch in a division with some tough ballparks in Colorado and Arizona. Now, does Houston want to pay another $25 million on an older pitcher? Maybe not. But with only three pitchers locked up for the rotation next season, Houston will likely want to add a player with team control and Samardzija might be a good bridge man for a year. Houston has had interest in him in a trade in the past, as well.
Phillies: Steven Matz, Mets; Marco Gonzales, Mariners
The Phillies need a lefty in their rotation — desperately. It's why they had interest in Dallas Keuchel before the year and it's also why they have been looking at Mike Minor of the Rangers. While their pitchers have different arsenals, all of them are right-handed, including the top three rotation of Aaron Nola, Jake Arrieta and Zach Eflin. The team has to pick up a lefty for a potential playoff run and Steven Matz is the odd man out right now in New York. He is also controllable with two years of arbitration left and has great stuff too, so he's definitely appealing. The only question is whether the Mets would trade him to a division rival?
Marco Gonzales probably won't get dealt, but if the Mariners want to get a good return with a trade at the deadline, he could be the player to get it for them. He still has one year left on his pre-arbitration deal and three years of arbitration remaining. While he hasn't been fantastic, that would definitely be enough to send some talent back Seattle's way. He's also left-handed and has been pretty good over the last two years. If the Mariners truly want to blow it up, then the Phillies could come calling, especially considering the two teams have a good working relationship after they made a big deal involving Jean Segura this offseason.
Yankees: Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays; Jason Vargas, Mets
Aaron Sanchez is the definition of a buy-low candidate, but that's what general manager Brian Cashman loves right now. The team doesn't want to take on big money and Sanchez is certainly not making that. He has not been good this year, though, which makes it a leap of faith to acquire him, but he has fantastic stuff and has shown flashes of great this season and was pretty good recently at Yankee Stadium. Now, it might be more of a question of if Toronto even wants to deal him because of how little value it might get for him.
Jason Vargas isn't a popular name, but he's shown he can be a very good innings eater and will give quality starts here and there. It wouldn't be a popular move if the Yankees pulled it off, but it would give New York someone it could pitch for a second half and possibly ease the wait for Luis Severino to return — if he does return. He could also eat up some innings late in the season while the team waits for the playoffs, which could take some burden off of Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia, who need to be 100 percent in the playoffs.