The oft-rumored trade between the Reds and Dodgers finally went down Friday afternoon, and the immediate national conversation was about what this six-player deal meant for the team in Los Angeles. Were the Dodgers freeing up space to make a run at Bryce Harper? Was A.J. Pollock now on the radar? Would they make a deal for J.T. Realmuto?
Let’s look at the other team, though. What exactly are the Reds doing here?
This is a franchise that’s lost at least 94 games each of the past four seasons, including 95 in 2018. I’ll admit, my first thought was this: Does the front office honestly think that adding Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood and Matt Kemp — and jettisoning Homer Bailey’s 6.09 ERA — will be the difference between 95 losses in 2018 and a playoff push in 2019?
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Remember, the Reds play in a rather loaded division, relatively speaking. The Brewers and Cubs both reached the 95-win mark and made the postseason in 2018, and they’re not going to be worse in 2019. The Cardinals have added Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Miller to a club that won 88 games last season.
It’s not unreasonable to think the minimum number of wins that gets a team into October contention in the NL Central will be 92. Are those three guys enough to take the Reds from 67 wins to 92 wins? No, probably not (we’ll re-visit this in a moment).
But that’s not the only equation the Reds were trying to solve with this deal.
The Reds are rolling the dice a bit, and that’s OK. They have to try something. They managed to turn Bailey’s bloated contract (he’s owed $23 million in 2018, plus a $5 million buyout for 2020) and a couple of prospects into three low-level lottery tickets. Think Pick Three, not Mega Millions.
Kemp, Puig and Wood are all eligible to become free agents after the 2019 season, so it stands to reason that all will be sufficiently motivated to perform, regardless of whether the Reds manage to contend. And all three are very talented.
Puig has the biggest upside of the trio, though it’s fair to wonder exactly what that upside is. His impact in the majors was immediate; a 4.7 bWAR in just 104 games in 2013 and a 5.1 bWAR the next year, with a combined .305/.386/.502 slash line and 151 OPS+ those two seasons. But 2015 and 2016 were mostly lost years, thanks to injuries and other issues, and even in his return to prominence in 2017-18 — helping the Dodgers to the World Series both years — he hasn’t been that MVP-type guy. He’s averaged a 3.2 bWAR with a .264/.337/.490 slash line and 119 OPS+.
That’s good, not great. Maybe he thrives in Cincinnati, a hitter-friendly ballpark, without the constant LA spotlight. Maybe he finds that MVP form and the Reds flip him for an impact prospect or two before the trade deadline.
And maybe Kemp plays for the first two months of the 2019 season like he did for the first two months of the 2018 season. That’s not impossible. Cincinnati is a much better ballpark for hitters, and he’ll get plenty of at-bats. Best-case scenario is that he’s healthy and brings back a somewhat decent prospect, as long as the Reds kick in some money.
And Wood could be exactly the type of reliable arm the Reds need in that young, but talented, rotation. He’s not just been a product of pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, either. In fact, he’s posted a better ERA on the road (2.95) the past two years than he has in LA (3.43). He has postseason experience, the type that a team will trade for before the July 31 deadline.
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And here’s the other thing: What if the Reds can actually compete in 2019?
Stay with me for a moment.
The lineup, assuming everyone’s healthy, isn’t too bad. Joey Votto is the centerpiece, of course, and he’s surrounded by Eugenio Suarez (34 homers, .892 OPS), Scooter Gennett (23 homers, .842 OPS), Puig, Kemp and Scott Schebler (30 homers in 2017) or Jesse Winker (.857 OPS in 136 MLB games). That’s not awful. And remember, they won’t have Billy Hamilton and his sub .300 on-base percentage getting five or six plate appearances every night.
The pitching staff — bullpen, especially — would need a dramatic turnaround, but Wood is a reliable starter and Luis Castillo has No. 1 stuff. He could take the leap in 2019.
Contending would require so many best-case scenarios to play out. It’s probably not going to happen. But the deal at least gives the Reds hope of a best-case that’s not disappointing.
