The Golden Nugget unleashed seven pages of propositions for the 2015 MLB season, including several geared for early returns before the All-Star break. The first pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for three teams on Thursday.
When glancing at the offensive totals on the two-way props, a few appear high considering how pitching has come to dominate today’s game.
Pitching has become so dominant, in fact, that MLB is considering raising the lower portion of the strike zone. The rules committee will be analyzing the zone this season with a change potentially enacted for 2016.
But bookmakers know that most gamblers tend to bet to OVERs, and that anticipation is factored into the numbers.
One exception to our assertion that most of these numbers are too high is the total of 206.5 for the prop on most hits by any batter. We like the OVER.
Another two-way total prop we like is the stolen base leader getting OVER 58.5. There seems to be more teams willing to get a runner in scoring position via a stolen base in today’s pitcher-dominated game, where runs aren’t scored so easily any more. The Royals, for example, employed the stolen base across many situations and rode that style all the way to the World Series – and when one team has surprising success in a certain area of the game, others copy. We won’t see stolen bases like we did in the ‘70s or ‘80s anytime soon, but one player getting 58.5 steals this year seems probable.
The big what-if in the power numbers is whether or not Giancarlo Stanton can stay healthy. If he does play a full season, which he hasn’t in the past three seasons, he should go OVER the total for home runs (44.5) and RBIs (126.5). But it’s hard to bet on something that hasn’t happened before.
Nelson Cruz led MLB last year with 40, and the RBI leader was Adrian Gonzalez with 116, so those totals feel high. The expectation here is for pitchers to dominate again, and maybe even more than last year.
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