Baseball’s best team doesn’t always win the World Series.
Starting with the 2000 season, the team with the baseball’s best record has only claimed the championship four times — the Cubs in 2016, the Red Sox in 2013 and 2007 (they tied for the most wins both years) and the Yankees in 2009.
Winning the title is hard. Injuries happen. Matchups matter. Unsung players become October stars. Regular-season stars become goats. Predictions are, generally speaking, exercises in futility.
But we’re going to exercise anyway. It’s good for the soul. Instead of a straight power ranking — determining the best teams — the goal here is to rank teams by their chances of winning the World Series. Which team is best positioned—by talent, opportunity, schedule, etc—to take home the 2019 trophy?
Let’s take a look.
1. Dodgers
Why they’re here: In case you skipped the intro (we all do it, so no worries), a quick reminder: The goal of this exercise is to rank the individual teams by their chances of winning the World Series.
Well, the Dodgers’ potential path just to get to the World Series is easier — not easy, mind you, but easier — than any of the AL teams. Houston has to deal with the dynamic Cleveland rotation and then either the Yankees lineup or the 108-win juggernaut that is the Red Sox in the ALCS. The Red Sox and Yankees — triple-digit win teams each — have to face off in the Division Series, just to get to the second round. Cleveland’s first task? The reigning World Series champions. And then whatever AL team survives that torturous path to the World Series has to somehow have enough in the tank to knock off the NL’s best team? Yikes. Milwaukee, Colorado and Atlanta are good, but they’re no Houston, Boston, Cleveland and New York.
Are the Dodgers the best team in baseball? No. They’re probably fourth, at best. But, yeah, I think they have the best chance of winning the World Series. Because here’s the thing: even though this season had its fair share of disastrous moments for the Dodgers, success in October isn’t about what you were in April or August. It’s about what you are now. And right now, the Dodgers are a very good and dangerous team.
They’re healthy. They’re hitting the baseball with authority: Yasiel Puig, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Enrique Hernandez, Joc Pederson, Matt Kemp and David Freese all posted an OPS of .900 or above in the final month of the season. Hyun-Jin Ryu, the Game 1 starter in the NLDS, had a 1.50 ERA in final month, and prize rookie Walker Buehler turned in a 1.62 ERA in that same stretch. Buehler is going to be a star on the October stage, by the way. To top it off, veteran lefties Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill are healthy.
Why I could be wrong: I just admitted that I’m picking what I think is the third or fourth-best team in baseball to win the World Series. That’s why I could — and probably will be — wrong. Embarrassingly wrong, maybe. Also, the bullpen.
2. Astros
Why they’re here: The Astros bring back pretty much every key piece of the team that won last year’s World Series title, and they’ve added arms like Gerrit Cole (2.88 ERA, 276 strikeouts) and Ryan Pressly (0.77 ERA in 26 relief appearances) to the mix. That pitching staff is just nails. And the offense isn’t shabby, either. They’ve had issues with injuries through the season—only two guys played in more than 140 games—but they’re healthy now. Alex Bregman has made the jump to legitimate MVP candidate this season, and even though Carlos Correa has had his issues this season, he could still be a force in October.
Why I could be wrong: Repeating is difficult, especially when you have to somehow navigate through a slate that includes teams like Cleveland, Boston/New York and whatever excellent team the NL produces.
3. Yankees
Why they’re here: That lineup is so, so dangerous. If Aaron Judge was healthy all season, maybe they would have caught the Red Sox atop the AL East. The scary thing about these Yankees is they’re always on the verge of a multiple-run inning. You walk a guy? Make an error? Watch a seeing-eye single or blooper fall in? The next guy up in the order — doesn’t matter who it is — can turn a fastball that misses its mark by even an inch or two into a two-run home run. That need for pitching perfection is damn stressful. They might not win a lot of playoff games 2-1, but they’ll be the favorites in pretty much every 6-5 or 8-6 game.
Why I could be wrong: The rotation is scary, too. Scary to Yankees fans, that is. Feels like the rotation has more boom-or-bust guys than reliable six-inning, two-run starters. Luis Severino looked great in the wild-card game, which was a huge boost. The bullpen still has the potential to be a dominant force, but none of the primary arms — Aroldis Chapman, Zach Britton, David Robertson or Dellin Betances — are throwing at their career-peak effectiveness.
4. Red Sox
Why they’re here: Yeah, it feels wrong to put a team that won 108 games in the regular season fourth on any postseason list that’s not alphabetical or something. But I have concerns with this group’s ability to survive an incredibly difficult road to a championship. Mostly about the pitching staff — I’m guessing not many Red Sox fans feel comfortable with any of the starters, aside from Chris Sale, who will take the mound in the postseason — but there’s this little nugget, too. The Red Sox went just 36-32 (.529) against teams that finished the season .500 or better this year, as opposed to 72-22 (.766) against sub-.500 teams.
Why I could be wrong: The have superstar Mookie Betts and super slugger J.D. Martinez and all-world pitcher Chris Sale and THEY WON 108 DAMN GAMES IN THE REGULAR SEASON. Sorry for yelling.
5. Brewers
Why they’re here: The Brewers have been amazing in the second half of the season, no doubt. And Christian Yelich … wow. That bullpen, especially with Corey Knebel pitching like himself recently, is just nails. October is a long road, though. Lefties Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez have been very pleasant surprises, but are they rotation pieces on a World Series-winning team? I mean, the 2006 Cardinals won the title with Jeff Weaver and Anthony Reyes (5.00-plus ERAs) playing huge rotation roles, so it could happen, but I’m not going to expect it to happen, y’know? And relying heavily on the bullpen — even one as good as Milwaukee’s — to carry a team for this entire month is a big ask.
Why I could be wrong: Milwaukee’s a really good team playing really good baseball with a ton of confidence. And that’s a good combination for October success.
6. Indians
Why they’re here: I’ve had more trouble figuring out Cleveland than any other team. On one hand, I’m tempted to pick Terry Francona’s boys to win the whole thing. They have the shiny pieces needed for October success, starting with a dynamic rotation. Does any team want the challenge of facing Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger (with either one of the latter two possibly shifting to the bullpen) in a series? Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are two of the very best players in baseball, and the other pieces in the lineup (Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso, Michael Brantley, etc.) are pretty damn good, too. With the addition of Brad Hand and the return of Andrew Miller, the bullpen is better now than at any point of the season.
But then there’s this: Cleveland was incredibly mediocre all season when facing good competition. The Indians played 76 games this year against teams that lost at least 95 games. They went 52-24 (.684) against those teams, but just 39-47 (.470) against teams that didn’t lose 95 times. Against teams that finished .500 or better on the season, just 21-26 (.447). And now they have to beat three excellent teams to win a World Series? The track record ain’t great.
Why I could be wrong: It’s entirely possible I’m putting too much weight on regular-season results. I’m aware of that. Cleveland’s World-Series title drought — going all the way back to 1948 — could very well end this month.
7. Braves
Why they’re here: Regardless what happens in October, this year has been a rousing success in Atlanta. The Braves weren’t just competitive a year ahead of schedule, they actually won the division and avoided the ugly meltdown suffered by the Phillies, a comparable young team that started the season so well. Phenom Ronald Acuña was everything advertised and more. Freddie Freeman was again his MVP-candidate self. Speaking of candidates, Mike Foltynewicz turned in a season worthy of Cy Young votes. Nick Markakis pushed back against his age for an All-Star season, and veteran pitcher Anibal Sanchez experienced a revival, too. Youngster Ozzie Albies was outstanding in his age-21 season. But the last month of the year wasn’t the greatest. The offense put up its worst collective OPS of the season, .704 (the previous low was .733) and the team ERA of 3.98 was the second-highest of the year (after 4.68 in July). It’s hard to see enough gas left in the tank for a month of beating baseball’s best teams.
Why I could be wrong: The Braves did pretty good with that underdog role this season, didn’t they? Acuna is exactly the type of young, rising phenom who uses the October stage to introduce himself to the country as baseball’s next superstar.
8. Rockies
Why they’re here: Someone’s got to be here, right? Think of the Rockies as being ranked eighth of MLB’s 30 teams, not “last” in this ranking. If Kyle Freeland or German Marquez could start every single game, or if they clone those two before the NLCS rosters are set, then maybe that changes things. But October challenges even the deepest, best pitching staffs and the Rockies don’t have the deepest, best pitching staff still standing.
Why I could be wrong: They weren’t even supposed to get here, right? Kind of a “never tell me the odds” thing. Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon are the types of hitters capable of carrying a team for weeks, and if they get a little more Tony Wolters-type magic along the way? Hey, stranger things have happened.
