The American League Division Series are set.
After the Rays' convincing 5-1 win in the wild-card game over the A's, Tampa Bay will face off with the Astros starting Friday, and the Yankees will meet the Twins.
Here is your 2019 ALDS preview:
2019 ALDS storylines
How will the Rays' starting pitching perform?: On paper, the Rays match up with the Astros one through three. It sounds crazy but just look at the first series of the season. Houston beat Blake Snell but then lost to Charlie Morton and Tyler Glasnow in back-to-back games. Now, Houston didn't have Carlos Correa in that series and it also didn't have Zack Greinke so this series will be a touch different, but pure-stuff wise, the Rays do match up with the Astros' staff. The big question is health as Glasnow and Snell are both recently back from injuries and not fully extended like Tampa Bay would like them to be. But if they can pitch enough to get to their stellar bullpen, then this series could be very, very tough for the Astros.
Will the Twins' home-run prowess continue?: This is a bit of a one-sided question just because the same thing could be asked of the Yankees, but New York has proved it can hit in the postseason. It did that two years ago while finishing one game shy of the World Series and hit a bit as well last year even though it didn't get past the Red Sox. The Twins hit 307 homers this year, but we have no idea if that will continue in the postseason when everything gets harder. Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver all had career years at the plate. If they can do what they did during the regular season they can keep up with a more proven lineup in New York. They weren't able to do it in the 2017 wild-card game. Will they do it in a five-game series?
2019 ALDS players to watch
Carlos Correa, SS, Astros — Correa missed 87 games this season with back and rib injuries and was out for the final seven games of the year after his back stiffened up on a flight to Seattle. Correa was one of the Astros' most clutch players at the plate in the 2015 and 2017 postseasons, hitting seven home runs and driving in 18 runs in 24 games. While Houston can win without him, it is undoubtedly worse when he is not in the lineup and 100 percent. He is supposed to play in Game 1 Friday but we'll see how he looks if and when he gets on the field.
Luis Severino, SP, Yankees — Severino made just three starts this year and it's unclear how close to 100 percent he will be in the postseason as well. But if he can give the Yankees five good innings against the Twins, Minnesota may have zero chance in this series. And beyond that, if Severino is healthy, he and James Paxton present an imposing top two in a rotation for a potential ALCS and World Series.
2019 ALDS predictions
Astros over the Rays in five — This one is really as simple as this: while the Rays can match up with the Astros pitching wide, odds are Tampa Bay cannot beat Houston in three out of four games with Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Greinke starting. We think they could easily grab a couple, whether that be with a two-homer game from Tommy Pham off Cole (because he owns the righty for some reason) or a win against rookie Jose Urquidy, but ultimately, the Rays have to face Verlander, Cole and Greinke in four of the five games. That lineup likely can't win three of those and it may have to if it wants to win the series.
Yankees over Twins in four — Severino, Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka. That may be enough to win the first three games for the Yankees, but we'll give Minnesota one win in the first three, maybe in a crazy, high-scoring Game 3 at home. But we don't think the Twins can beat the Yankees in this one. New York simply has too much firepower and is as healthy as it has been all year.