MLB playoffs 2016 picks: Who's going home early? Who can win the World Series?

Jesse Spector

MLB playoffs 2016 picks: Who's going home early? Who can win the World Series? image

In what amounts to something near a miracle, there is nothing to complain about when it comes to this year’s field for baseball’s postseason, as the 10 teams with the best records in the game made it to the playoffs, with the six best teams in baseball all as division winners, unlike last year when the teams with the three best records all came from the same division.

Maybe you could carp a bit about the unbalanced schedule, but you’d really be grasping at straws. The teams that are here are the teams that deserve to be here, and they are seeded appropriately. So, who’s going to go all the way and win the World Series?

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Here’s how each team can do it, and how each team is poised to fail.

CUBS

How they can win: Be the team they were all season, the one that allowed the fewest runs in the majors and outscored everyone but the Red Sox and Rockies while displaying no obvious weakness.

When they’ll go home: Well, there’s one obvious weakness: that big “C” on their shirts with “UBS” in it, or a bear on the alternate jerseys. Like, Daniel Murphy pretty much singlehandedly destroyed them last year. This is, quite often, a dumb sport that makes no sense, and it’s entirely possible for the very best team — clearly the very best team — to lose three out of five or four out of seven to a very good team. It’s entirely possible for the very best team — clearly the very best team — to lose three out of five or four out of seven to an atrocious team. The Cubs went a combined 5-5 against the Braves and White Sox this year. That’s baseball.

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RANGERS

How they can win: Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish combine to own October with dominance from the mound, outdueling whoever they come up against, and the close-game magic that propelled Texas to the best record in the American League continues as the product of a strong bullpen and a lineup with seven dudes who hit 20 or more homers.

When they’ll go home: Someone keeps things tight enough to steal games against the Rangers’ co-aces, the back end of the rotation can’t deliver and a bullpen meltdown gets mixed in just for old times’ sake.

NATIONALS

How they can win: Bryce Harper, after hitting .243/.373/.441 with 24 homers in the regular season, turns back into his MVP self from a year ago, or the magnificent force he was in the 2014 playoffs, while the combination of Max Scherzer and Tanner Roark combine with a did-not-see-that-coming bullpen to strike out everyone in sight.

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When they’ll go home: Injuries to Stephen Strasburg, Wilson Ramos, Daniel Murphy and, depending who you believe, Harper, prove to be too much to overcome against the best of the best for a team that hasn’t faced a fellow division winner since splitting two games with Cleveland in early August.

INDIANS

How they can win: The sports gods decide that 2016 is the year of the Shirtless Cleveland Cult Hero, and anoint Mike Napoli to join J.R. Smith in glorious exposed nippledom. Also, maybe nobody in baseball manages a bullpen as well as Terry Francona, who has used Andrew Miller perfectly since Cleveland got him from the Yankees.

When they’ll go home: Trevor Bauer is overmatched by the Red Sox in Game 1 of the division series, Corey Kluber is off after having missed his final regular-season start with a strained quad and Josh Tomlin gets pounded around Fenway in Game 3, leaving Cleveland still without a win in a postseason game since 2007, and miserable about the late-season injuries to Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Kluber.

RED SOX

How they can win: See the ball, hit the ball foul. See the ball, let the ball go low. See the ball, let the ball go outside. See the ball, hit the ball foul again. See the ball, hit the ball and run. Know that even the best pitchers in baseball only have so many pitches in a game, and feast in the middle innings. Ride David Price and Rick Porcello as much as possible, hang on tight with the bullpen, and… jeez, this really is a Dave Dombrowski team.

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When they’ll go home: Craig Kimbrel blows a four-run lead in the ninth inning, a non-save situation, in Game 7 of the ALCS. Should have settled for a single instead of that tiebreaking grand slam, David Ortiz.

DODGERS

How they can win: How did they even win the National League West? The Dodgers had only three pitchers who made even 20 starts this year. Clayton Kershaw only pitched 149 innings. Joe Blanton —Joe Blanton! — is their most effective and trusted setup man. The offense posted an OPS+ of 98 for the season. So, uh, however they’ve won so far, yeah, keep doing that.

When they’ll go home: /looks at playoff rosters for left-handed starting pitchers … oh, wow, they might actually do th—oh, wait, the Giants.

BLUE JAYS

How they can win: Who knows what to make of the Blue Jays? The lineup is still plenty fearsome, but it’s more about names and reputation than performance, as their team OPS+ for the season was 100 and Toronto only ranked fifth in the American League in scoring. There’s still a snowball effect to their offense when it gets going, and when you combine that with surprisingly the top pitching staff in the Junior Circuit, it’s a recipe for success, even a World Series.

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When they’ll go home: The offense hits one of its weird cold snaps, the pitching falls apart and their opponent does not suddenly and inexplicably forget how to play baseball like last year.

ORIOLES

How they can win: Dingers. So many dingers. And the Killer B’s, Brach and Britton, in the bullpen.

When they’ll go home: After giving up too many dingers. Also, bees are dying globally at an alarming rate.

METS

How they can win: The pitching staff with the best FIP in the majors? The Mets. The offense with the highest hard-hit ball percentage in the majors? The Mets. Pitch like the Mets do and hit like the Mets do, at least conceptually, and you should have the best team in baseball. It’s never that simple, of course, but if you allow that this is a team with 99-win talent that won 87 games, well, there’s 12 more to go.

When they’ll go home: Wednesday, most likely. If not then, against the Cubs. But, jeez, what if Bartolo Colon is brilliantly baffling with his perfectly-placed fastballs and Noah Syndergaard mows down everyone in sight and Seth Lugo’s curveball is hellacious and Robert Gsellman is the Jacob deGrom clone he looks like and Yoenis Cespedes goes on a tear? Well, then the NLCS, but maybe not, because the Nationals are banged up and the Dodgers sure have a lot of average in them. OK, for sure the World Series, because those American League teams are really solid and came through a meat grinder of a league as opposed to the top-heavy Senior Circuit that allowed the Mets to roll through a weak schedule to claim the wild card anyway, but, you know, the Mets have history with Cole Hamels, and the Red Sox are hardly invincible, and… you know what, Wednesday.

GIANTS

How they can win: Bruce Bochy arrives at workout day for the wild card game. Before he takes a question at his press conference, he leans into the microphone and scans the room. “The Aristocrats!” he says. The second half of the season is over.

When they’ll go home: It’s really not that simple. This is a deeply flawed team. They’re talented enough to win it all for the fourth time in seven years, and certainly battle tested, but there is no stage of the playoffs where it would be a surprise to see this year’s Giants suffer a massive, collective failure and bow out, even year or not.

Jesse Spector