MLB picks of the day – AccuScore offers up a pair of plays

Tomi Rantanen for AccuScore

MLB picks of the day – AccuScore offers up a pair of plays image

AccuScore’s predictions are based on 10,000-plus simulations performed by the company’s computer.  Throughout the baseball season, AccuScore will be stacking up its projections against Las Vegas odds and recommending wagers when value presents itself. -

Check The Linemakers on Sporting News' odds page for current baseball lines from Las Vegas.

New York Yankees -111 (@ Oakland Athletics)
Kendall Graveman vs CC Sabathia

The Yankees are coming out of a three-game sweep of the Royals, and their confidence is sky high. Even if the Royals were tamer than expected, the Yanks showed why they are pushing to be the favorites in AL East. Oakland is having somewhat of a roller-coaster season so far and it’s hard to predict which team show up – currently they are at the bottom of the AL and have been abysmal, especially at home, with a lousy record of 6-16.

In AccuScore simulations, Yankees are heavier favorites than the odds would suggest, with 58.3 percent of sims ending in away victory.  Sabathia is predicted to have a 52 percent chance of a quality start, while Graveman’s percentage is 37. There’s good value in a team on an upward trend and better overall quality. We would place the odds at -139.

Texas Rangers +100 (vs Boston Red Sox)
Nick Martinez vs Eduardo Rodriguez

The Rangers are highly undervalued here. The Red Sox are having some issues with the pitching rotation and will start with a rookie Rodriguez. Not the easiest place to be after the team got swept by Minnesota and looked vulnerable on all fronts. The Rangers are in a good place right now, with things certainly going their way even with a couple of pitchers out.  Nick Martinez has been magnificent and the Rangers are 8-1 when he starts on the mound. They are returning home from nine-game road trip and look to ignite their home crowd early on.

The home team wins 58.5 percent of simulated games as opposed to oddsmakers view of about 50 percent. There’s some value in picking the home team, as we’d put the odds at around -140.

AccuScore’s season-to-date record on LM : 36-40 (-4.31 units)

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Tomi Rantanen for AccuScore