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St. Louis Cardinals -110 (vs. Chicago White Sox)
Lance Lynn vs Chris Sale
We will risk stating the obvious by picking the Cardinals, who are now on top of almost every category in MLB. They’re looking for 10th straight home win while going 12-3 overall over their past 15 games. There’ve been occasions when the Cardinals have not played that well, maybe even winning when not really deserving to, but that is a sign of a remarkably strong-willed team with enormous talent all over the field. It is difficult to find a weak spot in the Cardinals' arsenal, and today the White Sox are the ones deemed to fail in trying to get something to take home from Busch Stadium.
AccuScore simulations have the Cardinals as way bigger favorites than the oddsmakers, giving them a 58.9 percent probability of a home win. This would push the playable odds all the way to -142, so there’s fantastic value on betting a red-hot host at -110 against an abysmal road team in the White Sox. It might be close, as many Cardinals affairs are, but eventually the better team will take the spoils here.
Supporting trends: The Cards are 29-7 when playing in St. Louis and 29-6 as home favorites. They are 8-5 when Lance Lynn starts....The White Sox are 14-27 on the road, 11-21 as road underdogs and 7-7 when Chris Sale starts.
San Francisco Giants +104 (@ Miami Marlins)
Mat Latos vs Ryan Vogelsong
Another pick some might think is too easy and obvious, but value is value no matter the expectations. The Giants have been a roller-coaster team and haven’t found their best level, at least for a prolonged period of time. Even so, the champions are sitting in playoff position. The Giants are a team that needs a bit of a challenge to get going, and the Marlins have enough potential for an upset that could get the likes of Duffy, Blanco and Posey going. Ryan Vogelsong figures to win the battle on the mound, even if Mat Latos is better than his numbers indicate. The Marlins are also giving too much headway to the Giants in injury department, with Stanton out until August and Prado and Morse also likely unavailable for a while.
In AccuScore simulations, the Giants are slight favorites of 55.3 percent as opposed to oddsmakers valuation of 48 percent. This presents great value for the reigning champions against a depleted Miami team. Odds of -123 would still be playable.
Supporting trends: The Giants are 21-15 on the road, 15-9 as road underdogs and 8-5 when Vogelsong starts....The Marlins are 19-29 vs an opponent with a winning record, 8-14 as home favorites and 4-8 when Mat Latos starts.
Cincinnati Reds -120 (vs Minnesota Twins)
Anthony DeSclafani vs Phil Hughes
Not as brilliant value as the two first picks, but the Reds are still undervalued by the oddsmakers when hosting the Twins at Great American Ball Park. Not as highly-rated as the sexier teams above them in the standings, the Reds possess the quality to surprise any team. Cincy has shown some recent flair at bat, while defense has occasionally been the Achilles’ heel. Late losses, bullpen collapses and ridiculous outs have cost them a couple of wins, but we believe the team has grown a bit, learned its lessons and will take the second win in a row vs the Twins.
The AccuScore supercomputer has the Reds winners in a hefty 62.5 percent of simulated games. This would put the odds at around -166, so there’s value to be had at -120.
Supporting trends: The Reds are 21-14 at home, 13-8 as home favorites and 8-7 when DeSclafani starts....The Twins are 15-21 on the road, 15-20 as road underdogs and 7-8 when Hughes starts
AccuScore’s season-to-date record on LM: 51-56 (-5.71 units)
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