AccuScore’s predictions are based on 10,000-plus simulations performed by the company’s computer. Throughout the baseball season, AccuScore will be stacking up its projections against Las Vegas odds and recommending wagers when value presents itself.
Check The Linemakers on Sporting News' odds page for current baseball lines from Las Vegas.
Baltimore Orioles +105 (vs Boston Red Sox)
Miguel Gonzalez vs Eduardo Rodriguez
It is surprising to find these teams at the bottom of the AL East, with only one win separating Boston from the last-place Baltimore. The Orioles have looked better lately, whereas the Red Sox have suffered some awful losses, especially on the road. They’re 2-8 in their last 10 away, and tonight doesn’t look too promising, either. In AccuScore simulations, the Orioles win 59.3 percent of the games, which translates to odds of -145. Pitching provides a small edge for the home team, with Boston struggling with consistency all season. Eduardo Rodriguez, however, has provided a fresh look and is looking for his second win in as many starts for the Sox. Our best bet is still on Orioles with good value and statistical advantage.
Supporting trends: Baltimore is 17-13 at home and 13-9 as home underdogs...Boston is 12-17 on the road and 3-4 vs the Orioles
St.Louis Cardinals -118 (@ Colorado Rockies)
Jorge De La Rosa vs Michael Wacha
The MLB-leading Cardinals were humiliated last night by the hosts, who blasted 11 runs against the pitching staff with by far the lowest runs allowed in baseball. It would be a bitter pill to swallow for the Cardinals if this happens again, and the Rockies are by no means the best measure for a champion-caliber team. Today, the roles are likely to change, as Michael Wacha has been phenomenal this season. The Rockies pitching crew is mediocre, and their batters are unlikely to repeat their success vs. Wacha. In AccuScore simulations, the Cardinals are 60 percent favorites to get revenge in this second game, which would make odds of -150 playable. At better than -120, there’s great value in a better team with a better pitcher and a chip on their shoulder.
Supporting trend: The Cardinals are 19-7 vs. an opponent with a losing record and 10-1 when Wacha starts....The Rockies are 12-17 at home and 3-4 when Jorge De La Rosa starts.
AccuScore’s season-to-date record on LM: 42-47 (-5.5 units)
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