AccuScore’s predictions are based on 10,000-plus simulations performed by the company’s computer. Throughout the baseball season, AccuScore will be stacking up its projections against Las Vegas odds and recommending wagers when value presents itself.
Check The Linemakers on Sporting News' odds page for current baseball lines from Las Vegas.Seattle Mariners +112 (@ Boston Red Sox)
Seattle Mariners +112 (@ Boston Red Sox)
Joe Kelly (4-6, 5.96 ERA) vs Mike Montgomery (4-4, 3.25 ERA)
Both of these teams have had enormous troubles on the defensive side of the ball, but the Red Sox's pitching problems trump any other issues. If their 4.44 pre-All-Star ERA wasn't bad enough (third worst in baseball), their post-All-Star ERA stands at 5.26. Those numbers, along with Joe Kelly’s personal stats, already make Seattle an attractive option, but seeing the oddsmakers make the Red Sox favorites seals the deal.
In AccuScore simulations Seattle wins with 53 percent probability, meaning they should be a -112 favorite. There’s value in a team in better form that boasts a better road record than Boston does at home.
Chicago Cubs -110 (@ Chicago White Sox)
Jeff Samardzija (8-7, 4.62 ERA) vs Kyle Hendricks (6-5, 3.73 ERA)
The Windy City showdown is hosted by the White Sox, but it's the Cubs who remain in the playoff mix, hanging on to the second wild-card sport. The hosts have improved their performance remarkably after the disastrous start of the season, yet the team is unpredictable at best. The Cubs have been in excellent form and have won 13 of their last 15 games and 12 of their last 16 games on the road, and there’s no reason to believe today changes the trend.
In AccuScore simulations the Cubs take 57.8 percent of the games and should be much bigger favorites than the odds imply. A price of -136 would be the better number. Even if the White Sox are motivated to throw a wrench in the works of their rivals, the Cubs are a stronger team and considering the current level of performance, should win comfortably.
Supporting trends: Cubs are 9-4 on the road and 7-1 as road favorite....White Sox are 3-12 vs a team with a winning record
AccuScore's season-to-date record for LM: 56-72 (-18.24 units)
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