AccuScore’s predictions are based on 10,000-plus simulations performed by the company’s computer. Throughout the baseball season, AccuScore will be stacking up its projections against Las Vegas odds and recommending wagers when value presents itself.
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Pittsburgh Pirates -127 (vs Chicago Cubs)
Francisco Liriano (7-6, 2.92 ERA) vs. Jon Lester (6-8, 3.26 ERA)
The NL Central rivals are both in on playoff position, owning the wild-card spots for now, despite playing in the toughest division in all of MLB. The Cubs are red-hot: they swept the Brewers in Milwaukee and are 11-4 in their past 15 road games. The Pirates have won eight of 11 since dropping five of six coming out of the All-Star break. Pittsburgh's pitching department has seen some improvements, and the batters have recently been able to turn the close battles to their favor. The Bucs hold a record of 11-4 from their past 15 home affairs.
In AccuScore simulations the Pirates are bigger favorites than the oddsmakers have rated them, and there’s good value in what we believe is a better team at its home stadium. Simulations have the Pirates winning with 62.4 percent probability, making odds of -165 playable.
Supporting trends: The Pirates are 10-1 as home favorites, while the Cubs are 3-7 vs an opponent with a winning record
AccuScore's season-to-date record for LM: 54-67 (-13.98 units)
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