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St. Louis Cardinals -116 (@ Chicago Cubs)
John Lackey vs Jake Arrieta
The Cardinals completed the sweep of the Marlins last night and seem unbreakable at the moment. They’ve managed to turn games to their favor even if not playing well, showing a lot of mental strength. The Cubs have played well and are positioned to grab one of the wild-card spots in the NL. We are expecting a close game with both teams starting reliable pitchers and boasting good lineups. The Cardinals have a bit of an edge in current record and are trending upward again after some lukewarm displays. AccuScore simulations make the Cardinals 58.8 percent favorites, which would make odds of -142 playable. At -116, there’s great value on the better team.
Supporting trends: The Cardinals are 26-7 at home, 4-2 vs. the Cubs and 23-15 vs. an opponent with a winning record....The Cubs are 9-10 as road underdogs
Houston Astros -107 (vs New York Yankees)
Vincent Velasquez vs Nathan Eovaldi
Many a time have the Astros banged in enough runs early to paralyze their opponents the rest of the game. Even against solid pitching, the Astros' heavy hitters are able to gather enough runs to challenge any other offense. Yankees pitchers might be in trouble tonight, and the game could turn out to be a high-scoring affair. In AccuScore simulations, the Astros are 59.9 percent favorites, while the oddsmakers have the game rates a coin flip with odds hovering around -100 for both teams. Based on our projections, a line up to -149 is reasonable for Houston.
Supporting trends: The Astros are 24-14 at home, 19-10 as home favorites and 2-0 when Velasquez starts...The Yankees are 18-20 on the road and 12-13 as road underdogs
Baltimore Orioles -103 (vs Cleveland Indians)
Wei-Yin Chen vs Corey Kluber
Baltimore is undervalued constantly, and again we get great value for remarkably better team on an upward trend. The difference in quality is clear, and Baltimore should be way bigger favorites against the Indians. Chen starting for the Orioles provides safety in the defense and the batters are as good as any in the league. AccuScore simulations set Baltimore as 56.1 percent favorites, and odds of -127 would be playable.
Supporting trends: Baltimore is 24-14 at home, 19-10 vs. an opponent with a losing record...Cleveland is 21-31 vs an opponent with a winning record and 3-11 when Corey Kluber starts.
AccuScore’s season-to-date record on LM: 49-54 (-5.42 units)
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